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Alex Keble's match-ups

Alex Keble's Premier League match-ups: A weekend of tactical clashes

By Alex Keble
Football
Mon September 18, 2023 · 1y ago
  • Alex Keble (@alexkeble) is a football journalist who specialises in tactical understanding, analysis and predictions of all aspects of the game

Narrow front three v Pep-lite possession

A lot is on the line in the Monday night game.

Bottom-of-the-table Burnley haven’t had an opportunity to get going yet, having faced Man City, Spurs and Aston Villa in their first three, but from what we’ve seen Vincent Kompany’s desire to continue Guardiola-inspired possession football is going the way of a classic Norwich City season.

It is too early to make that call and there is plenty of time for Kompany to make a more pragmatic turn in his playing style, but heads will drop unless Burnley start picking up points from a simpler run of fixtures.

Fortunately for them, Nottingham Forest’s low block, counter-attacking approach will allow Burnley to dominate possession for the first time.

The experience of Steve Cooper’s side, not to mention their growing threat via fast breaks through Anthony Elanga and Morgan Gibbs-White, is a big advantage for the hosts.

Burnley’s 4-4-2 seems too light on defensive numbers in the transition, and with Kompany expecting big distances between players while holding the ball, the narrowness of the Forest front three could pierce through the centre of the pitch.

Should that happen and Burnley lose, pressure will begin to grow on the manager. If Burnley cannot win matches against bottom-half teams willing to gift them as much of the ball as they want, then they stand very little chance of surviving.

Ten Hag reshuffle v De Zerbi midfield swarm

Erik ten Hag was right to praise his team’s performance in the unfortunate 3-1 defeat at Arsenal, a game in which Manchester United were far more compressed off the ball, more conservative in pressing, and fluid on the counter-attack.

But the hallmarks of that game – and the narrative that would have prevailed had Alejandro Garnacho’s offside goal stood – simply won’t be repeated for a home match against Brighton.

De Zerbi’s side continue to benefit from their under-the-radar reputation and, at Old Trafford, United will be expected to play a far more attacking game, which means falling into the traps that Brighton will set.

United won’t sit off as they did with success at Arsenal, instead returning to the high-pressing football that Ten Hag has installed this season in poor performances against Wolves and Spurs.

It seems almost certain that Man Utd will be chasing shadows again as Bruno Fernandes leads the press - only for an ageing midfield duo of Christian Eriksen and Casemiro to struggle following up behind, in turn elongating the space between the lines and letting Brighton play their natural game.

De Zerbi encourages the opponent to press, luring them forward before his players spin behind and overload central midfield with sharp forward passing.

His formation essentially has five players sitting in various centre-mid positions to exchange passes once the press is broken; Eriksen and Casemiro, scrambling to get across, should be overwhelmed by the visitors.

Then again, United are one of the best pure counter-attacking teams in the division and Brighton’s defence remains vulnerable as a result of De Zerbi’s high-intensity and high-risk approach.

Garnacho, Marcus Rashford, and Rasmus Hojlund should prove a handful behind Brighton’s bold defensive line, as well as in the moments when Fernandes bursts beyond the Seagulls' counter-press.

It will be a very entertaining game. But with Man Utd expected to act like the bigger club in front of their own fans, the visitors have the upper hand.

Low block vs KDB-less City

It has been about as unconvincing a 100% start as is possible.

Manchester City have attracted exactly zero attention so far this season and yet, bubbling just beneath the surface, is the possibility that Pep Guardiola’s team are slightly weaker than they were last year.

West Ham are the perfect opponents to test this.

Sheffield United came close to stopping Man City by hunching in an ultra-defensive formation of the kind West Ham will take to the extreme, as they did in the 3-1 wins against Brighton and Chelsea, matches in which David Moyes’s side held 22% and 24% possession respectively.

In both cases, West Ham refused to press at all, therefore preventing Roberto de Zerbi and Mauricio Pochettino from playing their fast transitions and press-baiting football.

It should work. Man City seem more ponderous and less multi-dimensional this season, especially without Kevin de Bruyne, but the Premier League is yet to test whether the simplest of defensive strategies will nullify a team reliant on Erling Haaland getting space in the box.

With Julian Alvarez lacking De Bruyne’s creativity, with no Riyad Mahrez yanking open space on the right, and without Ilkay Gundogan providing goals from deep, there is a good chance that the original anti-Guardiola weapon – a low block that makes possession football stagnant – is due for a comeback.

West Ham will lead the way for others to follow. What’s more, their long balls into the channel for Michail Antonio – so successful against Brighton and Chelsea – can find space on the outside of Man City’s back three (avoiding Kyle Walker’s side), providing the counter-attacking threat they need to offset their territorial retreat.

Meanwhile, James Ward-Prowse’s set-piece threat has made West Ham even more effective in underdog games.

Should Man City drop points, the Premier League will suddenly feel a lot more open. This is a far bigger game than it first appears.

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