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Alex Keble's Euro 2024 match-ups for the semi-finals

By Alex Keble
19:59 · WED July 10, 2024
  • Alex Keble (@alexkeble) is a football journalist who specialises in tactical understanding, analysis and predictions of all aspects of the game.

Shaw & Saka v Gakpo & Dumfries

It wasn’t the most convincing England performance but we can at least conclude that the formation change was a success – and that it’s here to stay.

Phil Foden was a lot more comfortable as one of the two number tens and Jude Bellingham no longer appeared trapped by the presence of others, while Bukayo Saka found considerably more room down the right because he could arrive late in the move after England’s dual-ten system had sucked Switzerland into a narrow shape.

In fact, it looked a lot like how the Netherlands play.

Ronald Koeman’s 4-2-3-1 becomes a 3-4-2-1 in possession as Steven Bergwijn dips infield from the right and Denzel Dumfries moves very high, counter-balanced on the other side by Cody Gakpo.

Cody Gakpo has been the Netherlands' star man

Gakpo and Dumfries hold the width but also regularly cross to one another at the back post, as we saw most famously for Netherlands’ match-winning goal against Turkey in the quarter-final.

This is without doubt their biggest threat, meaning a lot rests on how Gareth Southgate’s back five can operate when pushed into a deeper shape. Saka in particular will come under a lot of pressure from Gakpo, who is often given the ball in the final third and invited to take on his man.

That is a clear mis-match that will favour the Netherlands unless Kyle Walker offers very close support.

But the Netherlands’ strength is also their weakness. Two of Austria’s three goals against them in the group stage were built down Koeman’s right side, while France dominated the second 45 of their 0-0 draw thanks to Jules Kounde and Ousmane Dembele doubling up to confound left-back Nathan Ake.

Luke Shaw's pass map vs Switzerland

Luke Shaw’s return from injury is a major boost here. He should finally give England a left side, making Southgate’s team considerably more balanced while opening up space for switches out to the right – where Saka and Foden can take on Ake.

But this is a solid and dependable Netherlands side, tough in midfield (since moving press-resistant Tijjani Reijnders into the middle following the defeat to Austria), secure at the back, and with the Wout Weghorst option off the bench.

England will have to be sharper than they were against Switzerland. The new formation and Shaw’s return gives them a fighting chance in a semi-final all about the two sets of lopsided wing-backs.

Spain’s wingers v Kante’s role on Rodri

So far this tournament France have been (deliberately) boring to watch while Spain have been the tournament’s entertainers. Something has got to give on Tuesday, and considering the tension inherent to a semi-final match – not to mention Spain’s uglier, feistier display against Germany – France will likely set the tone.

It will be dry and claustrophobic as Didier Deschamps yet again deploys an ultra-conservative low block, minimises risks, and relies on a moment of quality at the other end. The impetus is very much on Spain to make something happen.

As ever, they will focus on direct attacks down the two flanks. The one-on-one dribbling of Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal has been the main feature of Spain’s football all tournament, and never more so than in the quarter-final: Yamal’s run and pass down the right set up the first goal, before Dani Olmo crossed from the left for the winner.

Kounde and Theo Hernandez are exceptional defensive full-backs and, steady in the back row of Deschamps’ cautious formation, they will prove extremely difficult for either Williams or Yamal to beat. These two battles on either flank will catch the eye.

But perhaps a more important, though subtler, match-up is between Rodri and N’Golo Kante. Rodri has been superb, as usual, in distributing the ball and dictating the tempo of matches, but Germany’s physicality dulled his influence somewhat in the previous round.

His direct opponent on Tuesday is Kante, deployed as the highest of Deschamps’ three-man midfield and the player tasked with getting tight to Rodri, closing off passes into him and pinching the ball off the Manchester City midfielder.

If Kante comes out on top, France’s fast front three can counter-attack successfully. But if Rodri turns the screw, Spain’s relentless barrage down both flanks should eventually break the French resistance.

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