Free betting tips and match preview: Bundesliga - RB Leipzig v Borussia Dortmund
The Premier League may be back but there's a huge game in the Bundesliga as Leipzig welcome Dortmund. Tom Carnduff has a 9/1 best bet.
Recommended bets
1pt Marcel Sabitzer to score from outside the area at 9/1
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RB Leipzig v Borussia Dortmund (14:30 BST, BT Sport)
The focus may have returned to the Premier League following its return but this is certainly the game to be watching on Saturday afternoon. Leipzig meet Dortmund with both aiming to finish in second.
The big news regarding the Bundesliga this week was the confirmation of Timo Werner's switch to Chelsea. He will remain at Leipzig for the remainder of the season and, even with his new club sorted, should feature in this significant game in Leipzig's season.
Werner netted a beauty in their midweek draw with Fortuna Dusseldorf and will be hoping to add a couple more goals to his tally before he departs for England. That result ended up being a disappointing one for Julian Nagelsmann's side; both of Dusseldorf's goals came in the final few minutes.
Dortmund meanwhile were stunned by Mainz. That 2-0 home defeat suggests that they have lost their focus following the confirmation of Bayern Munich's eight successive Bundesliga title. The visitors had more attempts on target despite seeing just 34% of the possession.
Leipzig take favouritism here with the Asian Handicap having them at -0.25. The absence of Achraf Hakimi (suspended) will hurt Dortmund down their left side while Manuel Akanji is also set to be sidelined through injury. For the hosts, they have the vast majority of their squad to choose from apart from long-term absentee Yussuf Poulsen.
Leipzig know that victory here will secure their spot in next season's Champions League and had it not been for the high number of draws then they would have been serious title contenders at this point. Remarkably, they've only lost three games but drawn a huge 12; only Schalke can match that high number of level results.
While it is tempting to back the hosts for victory here given their odds-against price, there is value elsewhere and the best bet comes in backing Marcel Sabitzer to score from range. The midfielder has scored the most goals from outside the area in the Bundesliga this season.
Five of his nine goals have come from outside of the box and Sky Bet make it 9/1 that the same happens here. Based on recent showings, if he is to score, it is likely to come from further than 18 yards out.
Sabitzer has posted six shots across his last four appearances for Leipzig. Of those six, five have come from outside of the area. Considering an anytime goal is priced at near 2/1 with some bookmakers, the better value comes in making a play on a goal from distance.
There is also the threat he poses from set-piece situations and he could take any free-kicks that are within shooting range. That will further enhance his chances of netting from outside of the area.
We have to be wary of Leipzig's home issues since the break. All four of their games have ended in draws; two of which came against teams in the bottom-three. However, given the circumstances, there is a real chance that they can break that run and secure all three points on offer.
Three of those four home games saw them post a higher xG and they will know that they should have had more points on the board from these fixtures; the biggest example being that late slip-up last time out.
Werner has that extra bit of motivation in ensuring his current club make next season's Champions League and it would provide little surprise if he is involved in the goals once again on Saturday. He is odds-on in most places to net anytime.
But, with it being the penultimate weekend of the Bundesliga campaign, it's worth making a play on a bigger-priced option that has a landed on multiple occasions this season.
Sabitzer has looked to find the goal from range in recent outings. This could be the game where he finally ends his wait for another from outside of the area.
Score prediction: RB Leipzig 2-1 Borussia Dortmund (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Best bet: Marcel Sabitzer to score from outside the area at 9/1
Odds correct at 1000 BST (19/06/20)
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