Sporting Life
Peter Wright (Picture: Lawrence Lustig/PDC)
Peter Wright (Picture: Lawrence Lustig/PDC)

World Matchplay Darts: Friday's quarter-final predictions, betting tips, acca, order of play and TV time

By Chris Hammer
Darts
Fri July 23, 2021 · 3y ago

The quarter-finals of the Betfred World Matchplay conclude on Friday night so check out our match-by-match predictions, best bets and a suggested acca.

Just two more quarter-finals remain to be played on the Winter Gardens stage as Peter Wright, Michael Smith, Michael van Gerwen and Nathan Aspinall vie for a place in the last four.

Here's our match-by-match guide of all the action...

World Matchplay: Friday July 23

Peter Wright (1/2) v Michael Smith (13/8)

  • Head to Head: 21-11, 2 draws (TV: 12-3, 2 draws)
  • Meetings since start of 2020: 5-2 (TV: 3-0)
  • Last Meeting: 10-6 (Players Championship Finals, November 2020)
  • Career PDC Titles: 37-3 (TV: 8-1)
  • Titles This Season: 3-1 (TV: 0-0)
  • 2021 World Matchplay Average: 102.93 - 96.60
  • 2021 World Matchplay 180s: 10 (28 legs) - 7 (41 legs)
  • 2021 World Matchplay Checkout %: 53.85% (21/39) - 46% (23/50)
  • 100+ Checkouts and highest: 4 (121) - 2 (136)

All logical signs point towards a Peter Wright victory tonight.

As you can see from the stats above, he boasts a superior tournament average of almost 103 and has a far better 180s per leg ratio than Smith, who did hit all of his seven so far in his thrilling victory over Jose de Sousa. Snakebite's finishing has also been more clinical while he's hit more 100+ checkouts, albeit Bully Boy managing the highest of the duo with a 136.

He also bosses the head-to-head record, especially in televised matches, and won five of their last seven matches since the start of last year, including the most recent three which all occurred at the back end of 2020.

I wouldn't read too much into that as it coincided with Smith's disappointing form - by his lofty standards - that ultimately led to Premier League omission whereas now he really seems to be displaying a positive fighting spirit to get back challenging for his first major TV title.

After beating de Sousa, who missed a match dart at 11-10 up before Smith's skin-saving 108 checkout: "I've been written off but I'm still here and in the quarter-finals now. Maybe two or three years ago I wouldn't have won that game, but I'm starting to win games that I grind out, and I'm hitting key shots at the right times."

The St Helens man, who has won a ProTour title this season, may have to up his game a little more from the average of 99.73 if Wright maintains his current form but the former World Matchplay runner-up is certainly not immune from inconsistency if he gets drawn into a real battle.

Smith's odds to win can be enhanced to 5/2 in Sky Bet's Player Performance market where he just has to hit eight or more 180s in a match which could see most of - or even more than - its 31 legs while the checkout requirement isn't too taxing.

If you can't see past a Wright win but agree it could be close with Smith's determination and growing confidence then over 18.5 180s at 11/8 looks pretty good, especially when you consider Snakebite hit seven maximums in 16 legs in a sparkling display against Joe Cullen.

  • Predicted Scoreline: 13-16
  • Suggested Bets: Michael Smith to win the match, score over 7.5 180s and checkout over 106.5 at 5/2 (Sky Bet) and over 18.5 180s at 11/8 (Sky Bet)

Michael van Gerwen (4/9) v Nathan Aspinall (7/4)

  • Head to Head: 6-5, 1 draw (TV: 3-2, 1 draw)
  • Meetings since start of 2020: 3-3, 1 draw (TV: 2-2, 1 draw)
  • Last Meeting: 3-8 (Premier League, May 2021)
  • Career PDC Titles: 19-2 (TV: 6-1)
  • Titles This Season: 1-1 (TV: 0-0)
  • 2021 World Matchplay Average: 98.28 - 97.01
  • 2021 World Matchplay 180s: 7 (36 legs) - 13 (36 legs)
  • 2021 World Matchplay Checkout %: 42% (21/50) - 39.62% (21/53)
  • 100+ Checkouts and highest: 1 (121) - 1 (117)

Nathan Aspinall loved playing Michael van Gerwen before everyone else stopped being properly scared of him, so he'll be licking his lips at the prospect of knocking him out of the World Matchplay in front of a bouncing Winter Gardens.

The atmosphere will be electric on Friday night after potentially an explosive 'warm up' of Wright v Smith and the Stockport man will no doubt rise to the occasion and ride the wave of the crowd's heavy support in his favour. Don't discount that as a key factor as well as the stats because we all know how much he missed the fans in 2020 and then used them to his advantage against Mervyn King and Gary Anderson this week.

Not that Michael van Gerwen is the sort to be rattled but it'll be interesting to see how he copes in a bare-pit that's rooting for his opponent for the first time since his struggles for title-winning consistency really started to crank up a few extra notches last season.

It could, of course, inspire him to one of those monster displays that he still manages to produce from time to time, including during this year's Premier League, but so far this week his stats have hardly been spectacular enough to strike fear into anyone. Especially not Aspinall.

Despite averaging 100 against Ian White, he allowed his opponent to give him a scare during the 11-8 victory despite Diamond averaging in the low 90s and missing 21 out of 29 attempts at doubles. If Aspinall can apply a lot more pressure, which he surely will, then we could see a popular upset tonight.

Aspinall, who crushed MVG 8-3 in their last meeting in the second half of the Premier League, is a tempting price just to win but his Player Performance targets of hitting more than 7.5 180s and managing a checkout over 103.5 takes those odds to 3/1.

  • Predicted Scoreline: 14-16
  • Suggested Bet: Nathan Aspinall to win the match, score over 7.5 180s and checkout over 103.5 at 3/1 (Sky Bet)

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