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Gary Anderson (Picture: Taylor Lanning/PDC)
Gary Anderson (Picture: Taylor Lanning/PDC)

World Matchplay 2023: Day four darts predictions, odds, betting tips, accas, order of play & TV times

By Chris Hammer
Darts
Tue July 18, 2023 · 1y ago

The 30th staging of the Betfred World Matchplay continues on Tuesday night so here's our match-by-match preview and best bets.

The second round gets under way at the Winter Gardens in Blackpool, with Gerwyn Price, Gary Anderson and Michael Smith all back in action.

Here, we look ahead to all four matches with seasonal statistics, predictions, best bets and an acca...

Darts betting tips: World Matchplay day four

1pt Smith v Dobey to have most 180s in the session at 15/8 (Betfred)

1pt Noppert to win and Aspinall to hit most 180s at 4/1 (Sky Bet)

1pt both Price and Cullen to hit six 180s each at 2/1 (Sky Bet)

1pt Anderson to win and hit most 180s at 11/8 (Paddy Power, Sky Bet)

SL Acca: Dobey (+2.5), Noppert, Price & Anderson all to win at 13/2 with Sky Bet

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

World Matchplay: Tuesday July 18

  • Venue: Winter Gardens, Blackpool
  • TV Coverage: Sky Sports (1900 BST)
  • Format: Second round, best of 21 legs. Each game must be won by two clear legs, with up to a maximum of five additional legs being played before the sixth additional leg is sudden-death

Daryl Gurney (13/8) v Gary Anderson (4/9)

  • Overall H2H: 11-11, 1 draw (TV: 7-3, 1 draw)
    2023: 0-0 (TV: 0-0)
  • Seasonal Average
    Gurney: 94.52
    Anderson: 98.02
  • 180s per leg in 2023
    Gurney: 0.22
    Anderson: 0.34
  • Checkout % in 2023 (Stage events only)
    Gurney: 34.02%
    Anderson: 35.88%
  • Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout)
    Gurney: 19.48%
    Anderson: 36.23%

Gary Anderson didn't perform at the sparkling levels we've seen from him during a clash with Dave Chisnall that didn't live up to the hype but he still finds himself as a very warm favourite to see off Daryl Gurney.

The Flying Scotsman's seasonal average of 98 is the second highest in the field but he managed 'just' 94 and fired in only two 180s whereas Gurney used all his battling qualities to get over the line against Rob Cross in a much higher quality clash.

Anderson and Gurney have been embroiled in some bruising encounters down the years, including here in 2022 when SuperChin floored him with a 10-7 victory in the opening round.

The Northern Irishman has somewhat surprisingly won seven of their 11 televised matches, which includes a draw, while their overall head-to-head record is 11-11, but they haven't met this season when Anderson has enjoyed such a resurgence.

It'll be relatively tight but I fancy Anderson to improve significantly from his last appearance and produce too much firepower for Gurney.

Although the latter hit six maximums against Cross, this season Anderson's 180 per leg ratio of 0.34 is far higher than Gurney's 0.22 so this seems a good opportunity to back the traditional match double.

Scoreline prediction: 8-11

Danny Noppert (6/5) v Nathan Aspinall (8/13)

  • Overall H2H: 6-9 (TV: 1-3)
    2023: 2-2 (TV: 0-0)
  • Seasonal Average
    Noppert: 94.34
    Aspinall: 96.45
  • 180s per leg in 2023
    Noppert: 0.25
    Aspinall: 0.30
  • Checkout % in 2023 (Stage events only)
    Noppert: 39.73%
    Aspinall: 36.67%
  • Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout)
    Noppert: 21.33%
    Aspinall: 19.75%

Danny Noppert and Nathan Aspinall booked their place in the second round by virtue of hard-fought wins over Martin Schindler and Krzysztof Ratajski respectively and the performance of the latter was only slightly better.

The Asp averaged 99 compared to Noppert's 95 while he fired in four more 180s with eight. The difference in either of those two stats aren't surprising based on how they've performed this season but Noppert is an ice cool customer who reached the semi-finals here 12 months ago.

They've also beaten each other twice in their four meetings this year so there really won't be much between them apart from the maximum hitting, which Aspinall should boss.

Noppert, who has won a Pro Tour title this season, is the value call here and I'll double it up with his opponent hitting more 180s.

Scoreline prediction: 11-8

WHO'S HIT MOST NINE-DART FINISHES?

Gerwyn Price (1/3) v Joe Cullen (9/4)

  • Overall H2H: 10-10 (TV: 7-3)
    2023: 0-1 (TV: 0-0)
  • Seasonal Average
    Price: 99.18
    Cullen: 95.21
  • 180s per leg in 2023
    Price: 0.34
    Cullen: 0.35
  • Checkout % in 2023 (Stage events only)
    Price: 41.53%
    Cullen: 38.63%
  • Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout)
    Price: 36.79%
    Cullen: 34.78%

Gerwyn Price made a comprehensive albeit unspectacular start to his World Matchplay campaign on Saturday when thrashing Stephen Bunting 10-3 with an average of 97.

If that's the Iceman warming up then the rest of the field could be in big trouble unless someone takes him out soon.

That responsibility lies with Joe Cullen, who came through his 180 fest with Mike De Decker 10-7 with an average of almost 101 and also has a very strong record against Price.

Although they've only met once this year - an encounter that the Rockstar won - they've beaten each other 10 times apiece so there's clearly no intimidation factor in either direction.

I still think Price will rise to this occasion and get the win but my tip will focus on the 180s markets, where you can get 2/1 on both players to hit six of them. If they play to their seasonal rates then they should manage it if we get around 17 or 18 legs.

Scoreline prediction: 11-8

TOP FIVE MAJOR DARTS CHAMPIONS

Michael Smith (4/11) v Chris Dobey (2/1)

  • Overall H2H: 5-5 (TV: 2-3)
    2023: 1-3 (TV: 1-3)
  • Seasonal Average
    Smith: 95.89
    Dobey: 96.06
  • 180s per leg in 2023
    Smith: 0.34
    Dobey: 0.32
  • Checkout % in 2023 (Stage events only)
    Smith: 39.83%
    Dobey: 37.21%
  • Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout)
    Smith: 26.37%
    Dobey: 18.48%

Michael Smith may have won 10-2 on Sunday night against Steve Beaton but he was the first to admit his performance was 'ugly' and will need to improve if he's to avoid a second round upset.

His average of 88 was the fifth time he's ventured below 90 in his last 17 games since the start of June but his only defeat in those games came against Jim Long at the US Darts Masters.

Nevertheless, inconsistency is the cause behind his seasonal average being outside the top 10 in 2023 and he knows full well that another sloppy display will be punished by Chris Dobey, who has beaten him in three of their four televised meetings this season.

The Northumberland ace may feel slightly disrespected to be as big as 2/1 in this contest and certainly looked impressive in taking out James Wade 10-8 with a 96 average on Sunday afternoon.

I expect a lengthy battle - perhaps the closest of the night - and if that's the case then backing them to provide the most 180s could pay off nicely, especially when you bare in mind how high their maximum per leg ratios are.

Gerwyn Price and Joe Cullen also boast similar levels but this clash should have more legs.

Scoreline prediction: 9-11

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