PDC World Darts Championship: Betting tips, odds & predictions as Phil Taylor eyes a fairytale 17th world title
Our resident darts expert Chris Hammer answers the key questions ahead of the PDC World Championship and picks out his best bets.
And as for any big major, Chris will also be providing daily match-by-match previews & predictions throughout the tournament so make sure you stay tuned to our darts page for what’s set to be an unforgettable three weeks of action.
Click here for the full World Championship draw & daily schedule
Can Phil Taylor bow out in glory?
I think most Power fans will come to the same conclusion - "My heart says yes, my head says no."
Some say never bet with your heart but that strategy, of course, would have seen you miss out of profiting from many of those big priced 'sporting fairytales' down the years which logic claimed couldn’t happen – or at least were highly unlikely to.
A pretty good recent comparison with another, relatively speaking, ageing sporting icon is Roger Federer, whose chances of adding to his Grand Slam haul for the first time since 2012 were pretty much written off at the top of this year.
He first made a mockery of 25/1 prices to win the Australian Open and then became Wimbledon king for the eighth time during a dreamy summer at SW19.
One of the main factors behind Federer's renaissance has obviously been his reduced schedule to target key events and this same approach has helped Taylor stay as mentally fresh as he possibly can for his primary goals before his retirement.
One of those goals was the summer’s World Matchplay, in which the Power, who was 20/1 at the start of the week, destroyed MVG en route to lifting the trophy for a 16th time and only lost 31 legs (winning 72) over the course of his five matches (v Messrs Price, Barney, MVG, Lewis & Wright) as he well and truly emphasised he’s far from finished.
Not taking anything away from Taylor but that coincided with a rather unusual slump in form from Michael van Gerwen and over the past couple of months the Dutchman has come storming back to his formidable best by winning the last four televised majors.
If Taylor battles his way through his loaded half of the draw which includes Gary Anderson, Peter Wright and Adrian Lewis, then you'd expect him to run up against MVG in what really would be a dream Ally Pally final.
In that scenario, can you really see him having enough mental strength left to come through a best-of-13 set epic with such an energetic, relentless opponent?
He often talks about how he finds the playing schedule tiring these days and, Blackpool apart, we've seen him run out of steam at the business end of the Champions League of Darts and Grand Slam of Darts in recent months - the latter ending with MVG getting his revenge.
Essentially I believe he’ll need someone else to do his dirty work and knock out MVG before then to stand a chance in what would be an emotionally overwhelming final whoever he faces.
Thankfully for Taylor's backers out there, I do feel there are one or two men who can do that (find out below!) so all those emotional fivers at 12/1 on him to win a 17th world title - and 15th in the PDC - aren't without all hope!
So who can stop Michael van Gerwen?
I guess nobody needs me to explain why he's hot favourite – so I’ll keep this very brief.
Apart from the mind-blowing talent he possesses and the mental dominance he holds over the rest of the world’s elite, MVG is right back at the peak of his powers having endured three significant disappointments this year.
His humbling at the hands of Taylor in the World Matchplay was bad enough but he then suffered yet another defeat to his arch-rival at the Champions League of Darts, which saw him eliminated in the group stages, and then crashed out in the first round of the World Grand Prix against rank outsider big John Henderson.
While it would be very harsh to blame this blip in his career down to his baby Zoe, who arrived into this world during the summer, all parents will tell you the first does knock you right out of kilter and plays havoc with the routines you were previously used to.
Six months down the line he’s clearly now adjusted to his new life of throwing darts while changing nappies and on the back of no sleep – while he’s even now started bringing her to 'watch' him play at recent majors. Heart-warming indeed.
His demolition of Jonny Clayton at the recent Players Championship Finals in Minehead means he’s now won the last four televised majors in succession having also clinched the European Championship, World Series of Darts Finals and the Grand Slam of Darts.
His winning streak now stands at 28 competitive matches since losing to Henderson and he heads to the Ally Pally with none of the pressure that surrounded him 12 months ago when some said he needed a second world title to truly prove himself.
There are only two players I believe can feasibly beat the favourite in his half of the draw.
Raymond van Barneveld is one, purely because he's so memorably done it before on this stage and is one of the few players that can conjure up that special game needed to dethrone such a formidable champion.
However, the Dutchman’s lack of consistency has prevented him winning the big titles in recent times and I can easily see him tripping up against either Kyle Anderson or Dave Chisnall before he even gets a crack at MVG in the quarters.
The other - and most likely in my opinion - is Rob Cross, who is 16/1 for glory.
Regular readers of my columns will know I’ve been electrified by Voltage’s ability and form during this stunning debut season on the PDC circuit – as have many avid darts fans – but this is his first taste of the sport’s biggest stage.
In terms of his game, Cross has it all. He regularly produces the big 100+ averages thanks to his relentless high-scoring prowess, showstopping checkouts and deadly finishing while he's managed to make this all count by winning four Players Championship titles and also reaching a major televised final at the European Championship, where he lost to MVG of course.
His performances at the Grand Slam of Darts were also highly impressive and twice gave the world number one a real run for his money during their two meetings - once in the group stages and then in an epic quarter-finals.
The obvious downside of Cross' rapid accent to world number 20 in less than 12 months is that MVG rates him so highly, he hasn't shown the slightest complacency during his seven wins from eight meetings in 2017.
Cross is pretty much beating everyone else although to my own personal frustration, having backed him at 12/1 each-way, he finally displayed signs of weakness when leading Clayton 4-1 in the semi-finals of the Players Championship Finals.
At that point he was 1/50 in-play against a player who was big underdog before the match even started but somehow contrived to lose. And that undoubtedly raised question marks.
I spoke to Wayne Mardle at a recent exhibition event at Elland Road and he gave great insight into just how difficult it is, especially for debutants, to deal with the World Championship setting compared to the other majors and all the mental pressures that go with it. He questioned whether Cross, despite his amazing talents, is ready just yet to challenge for the biggest prize in darts.
I'm therefore probably being unwise to go against such strong advice from a man who knows first hand what it's like to be right in the eye of the Ally Pally storm - both on and off the oche - but his quote of 16/1 is still so very tempting.
He is the real deal and I can't just assume he'll freeze rather than thrive just because of that slip up in Minehead. So I'm going to put my faith in him once more.
What about Peter Wright or Gary Anderson?
The betting and recent history says Gary Anderson is MVG's main challenger and that's fair.
On his day the Flying Scotsman can produce that sky high level of darts to obliterate anyone and, crucially, is able to complement that with his mental stamina in the longer format of set play.
He's prone to silly shock defeats in the early rounds of leg play tournaments - like we've seen at the UK Open and Players Championship Finals - but he's so switched on at the Ally Pally and always focuses his year on peaking on this stage.
His second world title in 2016, during which he nailed a sensational nine-darter in a semi-final destruction of Jelle Klaasen, was Anderson at his vintage best while he came up short only to a brilliant MVG in the 2017 final.
This year's draw means he potentially as Phil Taylor and Peter Wright to deal with and while he is obviously well capable of beating them both, it still puts me off backing him at 7/1.
He did have a good record in his needle rivalry with Snakebite but the psychological edge could well have moved to his Scottish foe after that stunning comeback at the Grand Slam of Darts when he came from 14-8 down to win 16-15 in an unforgettable semi-final.
Since then, Wright was sadly taken to hospital with suspected gallstones and while he'll still be stepping up on the oche at the Ally Pally, his preparations have been affected so it's hard to guage how rusty he will be.
He's enjoyed a stunning season having won his first major TV crown at the UK Open as well as 10 other PDC titles this season, while he agonisingly missed out on the Premier League prize after missing six match darts in the final against MVG.
Like Taylor, Wright will need someone to knock van Gerwen out for him given the gulf in class which will take its toll during a long final whereas Anderson is more likely to cope with the intensity of such an occasion.
What about any other special bets?
The 10/3 about there being a 'new world champion' has intrigued me.
Realistically you'd say the genuine hopes of this bet coming in rests with Cross, who I'm already keen on anyway, and also Daryl Gurney and Mensur Suljovic.
Gurney is actually the only player this season to have reached the quarter-finals of all the major televised events and more importantly proved he has what it takes to be a winner on the big stage when triumphing at the set play World Grand Prix.
Despite Taylor rudely dismissing his chances of being "the future of darts", the Northern Irishman will be a prominent part of it for years to come if his 2017 is anything to go by.
Suljovic also made his big breakthrough when memorably winning the Champions League of Darts as the 40/1 outsider and while his form has gone a little off the boil since then, the month of rest and practice could well help him restore that magic touch.
So many players find him an awkward opponent to deal with - just ask Gary Anderson - and if he drags them down to his speed in the longer set play format, then he could well make a charge in the top half of the draw.
This bet needs one of these players, or even a seasoned campaigner like Dave Chisnall, to take out MVG and Raymond van Barneveld and if that's happened you'd have reason to be confident of whoever they come up against in the final.
Few can doubt that the established order are being challenged by up and coming talents like never before so as long as someone manages to knock MVG out, this 10/3 has a strong chance.
In terms of quarter betting, MVG will win the first, while I can't see past Cross, Suljovic or Gurney in the second for the reasons already stated.
With the uncertainty surrounding Wright, there'll be no shortage of punters keeping Adrian Lewis on side in the third.
Jackpot has had a very disappointing, albeit injury-affected, season but there were positives to take from his performances at the Players Championship Finals and another month of fine tuning may see him return to somewhere close to being highly competitive again.
I'd say this is the quarter most likely to produce a big price winner, with World Grand Prix runner-up Simon Whitlock a tempting 10/1 while Jonny Clayton must surely be worth consideration at a massive 40/1 in places.
Although the 11/1 on him just to reach the last eight is more realistic and advisable.
The Welshman's steady climb up the rankings has been relatively unnoticed due to the emergence of Rob Cross but he made everyone sit up and take notice when pulling the plug on Voltage at the Players Championship Finals.
Clayton, who won a maiden PDC title in a Players Championship event in October, headed to Minehead as a 250/1 no-hoper having never previously reached a televised quarter-final but showed no shortage of guts and quality to see off Gerwyn Price, Stephen Bunting, Steve Beaton and then Cross before finding MVG too hot to handle.
The Pontyberem thrower is big odds because he could face Wright as early as the second round but I'd give him more than a fighting chance when it's best of seven sets.
In the fourth and final quarter, obviously you'd have to say Anderson or Taylor will come through.
But, I'm drawn to Joe Cullen, in case Anderson suffers one of those shock days and someone plays a very early role of party pooper in Taylor's final world championship.
I've made the case for Cullen a couple of times this season as I feel he's ready to make a big impression at the very highest level - but we are still waiting!
Having become only the 23rd different player to post an average of over 100 in a World Championship match during what was a thrilling first-round win over Corey Cadby last year, more was expected of him in televised tournaments.
However he's still managed to win two Players Championship events this year while he's reached two semi-finals on the European Tour and plenty of quarter-finals.
Like with Clayton, a safer option would be to back Cullen at 8/1 with Sky Bet to reach the quarter-finals.
Will there be a nine-dart finish?
Click here to watch all the World Championship nine-darters in history!
In a word, yes.
We waited until 2009, would you believe, to see the first nine-darter at a PDC World Championship but since then there's been eight more yet there wasn't one last year.
It sounds lazy to say "we're due one" but we are, especially given the overall standard of the field and the amount of legs that are going to be played.
Phil Taylor has never managed the feat at a world championship and you wouldn't put it past him to finally do it at the last time of asking at 5/1.
It is only 4/6 that there'll be a nine-darter so you might want to consider there being two at 4/1 - or even three or more at 12/1 with Sky Bet!
A brace of perfect legs happened at the 2013 and 2014 World Championship while MVG once almost managed two in successive legs!
Click here to watch all the World Championship nine-darters in history!
Recommended bets
1pt e.w. Rob Cross to win the World Championship at 16/1
1pt first time winner of the World Championship at 10/3
1pt Jonny Clayton to reach the quarter-finals at 11/1
1pt Joe Cullen to reach the quarter-finals at 8/1
Click here for our transparent tipping record.
Posted at 0930 GMT on 13/12/17.