Sporting Life
Michael Smith and Luke Littler (Picture: PDC)
Michael Smith and Luke Littler (Picture: PDC)

Premier League Darts 2024: Night five predictions, betting tips, acca, order of play and Sky Sports TV time

By Chris Hammer
Darts
Thu February 29, 2024 · 9M ago

The Cazoo Premier League Darts regular season continues in Exeter on Thursday night so check out Chris Hammer's match-by-match guide to the action.

Darts betting tips: Premier League night 5

1pt Luke Humphries to beat Michael van Gerwen at 11/10 (General)

1pt Peter Wright to beat Nathan Aspinall at 13/10 (bet365, William Hill)

1pt Price v Cross to have over 8.5 legs, a checkout of over 100.5 and over 4.5 total 180s at 6/5 (Sky Bet)

1pt Littler v Smith to have over 8.5 legs, highest checkout to be over 100.5 and over 5.5 total 180s at 5/4 (Sky Bet)

SL Acca: 0.5pts Humphries, Wright & Price all to win at 7/1 with Sky Bet

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Thursday February 29: Night Five

  • TV Coverage: Sky Sports (1900 GMT)
  • Format: Quarter-Finals, best of 11 legs
  • Venue: Exeter

Luke Humphries (11/10) v Michael van Gerwen (8/11)

  • Head to Head: 5-13 (TV: 3-7)
  • 2024 PL Average: 101.72 - 99.00
  • 2024 PL 180s per leg: 0.36 - 0.37
  • 2024 PL checkout percentage: 39.33% - 45.04%
  • 2024 PL legs won with 100+ C/O:11.42% - 6.77%

Luke Humphries boasts the highest average in this season's Premier League but that doesn't count for much when you're fifth in the table and 10 points behind runaway leader Michael van Gerwen.

Cool Hand has averaged above 100 in each of his last six matches in this competition - including 102.47 in a 6-5 defeat to Rob Cross in last week's quarter-final in Newcastle - and while we always call stats a 'guide', you can't keep playing like that and not get your just rewards.

The last time these two met in the week three final, Humphries averaged 101.37 compared to MVG's 93.85 but lost the deciding leg and is still therefore waiting for his first nightly title.

Van Gerwen may well be sitting pretty at the top but his overall performance levels in all competitions aren't exactly unbeatable and I still rate Humphries as the best player right now - regardless of what an exhibition tournament table with a flawed points system says.

As tempting as it is to throw the most 180s into the mix given how prolific Humphries is, they drew 4-4 last time and MVG's 180 per leg stats in all competitions is around the 0.4 mark so I'll play safe.

Verdict: 6-4

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Nathan Aspinall (8/13) v Peter Wright (5/4)

  • Head to Head: 10-6 (TV: 7-3)
  • 2024 PL Average: 94.02 - 92.29
  • 2024 PL 180s per leg: 0.35 - 0.26
  • 2024 PL checkout percentage: 28.13% - 29.17%
  • 2024 PL legs won with 100+ C/O: 11.11% - N/A

Peter Wright is now the only player without a point in this season's Premier League but there's no doubt Snakebite is making clear improvements following a torrid period in his career.

Wright averaged over 103 in a superb losing performance against Luke Littler last week and agonisingly missed a dart for a 6-4 victory, while prior to that he'd been chalking up an impressive number of victories on the Pro Tour.

He's reached a couple of semi-finals and a quarter-final, but more encouraging is how his averages are stabilising in the mid to high 90s again following a spell where he frequently dropped into the 80s.

Nathan Aspinall is favourite having reached last week's final but his form has been worse than Wright's over the past month when it comes to overall results and performance levels.

In fact the Asp won his two matches last week with checkout percentages of around 25% so it's fair to say he was let off the hook until he ran into Michael van Gerwen.

Verdict: 4-6

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Gerwyn Price (8/13) v Rob Cross (5/4)

  • Head to Head: 11-7, 2 draws (TV: 3-4, 2 draws)
  • 2024 PL Average: 98.75 - 95.39
  • 2024 PL 180s per leg: 0.23 - 0.25
  • 2024 PL checkout percentage: 40.50% - 38.37%
  • 2024 PL legs won with 100+ C/O: 18.75% - 15.15%

Gerwyn Price hasn't got much to show for a lot of high-quality performances this season so he'll be hoping his fortunes change in Exeter on Thursday night.

The Welshman's occasional sloppy performances have been punished in the Premier League and on the Pro Tour, while he played well in defeat to Michael van Gerwen in last week's quarter-final. If he start stringing more of his 100+ average games together again, then his first nightly success might just be around the corner.

Rob Cross hasn't exactly made an explosive start to the season in any competition but he's picked up a win in three of the four Premier League nights so far to lay some fairly solid foundations on which to build.

Last week's triumph over Luke Humphries lifted him above Price in the table and I'd fully expect to run the Iceman close.

Both players are generally more prolific on the 180s than their current maximum per leg stats suggest so if we see at least nine legs then they should comfortably combine for five or more of those, while they've been on fire with their 100+ checkouts.

Verdict: 6-4

CLICK HERE for the match to have over 8.5 legs, a checkout of over 100.5 and over 4.5 total 180s with Sky Bet

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Luke Littler (4/9) v Michael Smith (13/8)

  • Head to Head: 0-1 (TV: 0-1)
  • 2024 PL Average: 100.42 - 96.36
  • 2024 PL 180s per leg: 0.36 - 0.35
  • 2024 PL checkout percentage: 41.51% - 42.70%
  • 2024 PL legs won with 100+ C/O: 11.36% - 10.52%

Michael Smith is one of the few players who can boast 100% record against Luke Littler - even if it is just after one game back on the opening night of the Premier League season.

Bully Boy went on to win the night but that's as good as it's got for him so far and has subsequently lost three of his following four matches in this competitions and hasn't fared that much better on the Pro Tour with a string of averages in the low 90s and high 80s.

Littler's 'blip' since winning the opening Players Championship tournament of the season has made him look a lot more human than he did a month ago and has only managed to average over 100 four times in 21 matches in all competitions dating back to that point.

The 17-year-old has obviously never played this much high level darts in such a short period of time and it would be ridiculous to expect him to be firing on all cylinders consistently at this stage of his career, so don't be surprised to see him embroiled in a tough battle against Smith.

Both players boast a high 180 per leg rate of around 0.35 and if we see plenty of legs that we should fancy our chances of seeing several 100+ checkout chances.

Verdict: 6-4

CLICK HERE for the match to have over 8.5 legs, a checkout of over 100.5 and over 5.5 total 180s with Sky Bet

Premier League Darts 2024: Averages, 180s and checkout statistics

TOURNAMENT AVERAGE After week 4

  • Luke Humphries: 101.72
  • Luke Littler: 100.42
  • Michael van Gerwen: 99.00
  • Gerwyn Price: 98.75
  • Michael Smith: 96.36
  • Rob Cross: 95.39
  • Nathan Aspinall: 94.02
  • Peter Wright: 92.29

MOST 180s & 180s PER LEG After week 4

  • Michael van Gerwen: 38 (0.37 per leg)
  • Luke Littler: 28 (0.36)
  • Michael Smith: 26 (0.35)
  • Luke Humphries: 25 (0.36)
  • Nathan Aspinall: 21 (0.35)
  • Gerwyn Price: 17 (0.23)
  • Rob Cross: 17 (0.25)
  • Peter Wright: 10 (0.26)

DOUBLES AND CHECKOUT PERCENTAGE After week 4

  • Michael van Gerwen: 45.04% (59/131)
  • Michael Smith: 42.70% (38/89)
  • Luke Littler: 41.51% (44/106)
  • Gerwyn Price: 40.50% (32/79)
  • Luke Humphries: 39.33% (35/89)
  • Rob Cross: 38.37% (33/86)
  • Peter Wright: 29.17% (14/48)
  • Nathan Aspinall: 28.13% (27/96)

100+ CHECKOUTS, HIGHEST CHECKOUTS & % LEGS WON WITH 100+ CHECKOUT After week 4

  • Gerwyn Price: 6 (18.75% legs won with 100+ checkout)
    100+ Checkouts: 170, 124, 120, 117x2, 100
  • Rob Cross: 5 (15.15%)
    100+ Checkouts: 144x2, 116, 110, 109
  • Luke Littler: 5 (11.36%)
    100+ Checkouts: 170, 138, 130, 103, 100
  • Michael Smith: 4 (10.52% )
    100+ Checkouts: 170, 120x2, 107
  • Luke Humphries: 4 (11.42%)
    100+ Checkouts: 121, 117, 108, 105
  • Michael van Gerwen: 4 (6.77%)
    100+ Checkouts: 136, 127, 120, 110
  • Nathan Aspinall: 3 (11.11%)
    100+ Checkouts: 170, 100x2
  • Peter Wright: 0
    100+ Checkouts:

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