Abigail Davies and Paul Nicholson

PDC World Darts Championship pundit predictions from Paul Nicholson, Abigail Davies and our darts writers

By Sporting Life

Darts

Tue December 12, 2023 · 1y ago

Our darts team answer some key questions ahead of the Paddy Power World Darts Championship and give you their predictions.

Three of our quintet of experts - Abigail Davies, Paul Nicholson and Chris Hammer - were part of our special World Championship preview show while statistician Carl Fletcher and data analyst James Cooper, who also writes the Pocket Science column on our snooker pages, were instrumental in crunching the numbers found in our special Tournament Betting Guide.

Here, we have summarised all their thoughts while you can also find out how to watch the video or read the guide lower down.

Who will win the world title?

ABIGAIL DAVIES: For me, Luke Humphries. It’s an eye-rollingly obvious pick but three major titles in the space of 49 days, the 138 checkout to win his first in Leicester, the comeback to get the better of Michael van Gerwen in the Players Championship Finals, I genuinely believe there are only two or three players who can stop him right now. He is riding the crest of a wave, posting ton plus averages for fun and we now expect this ridiculously high standard from him.

PAUL NICHOLSON: Michael Van Gerwen is my pick to win as I think he’s in the right kind of shape to have a great event, hungry for a 4th title and has a very winnable quarter.

Paul Nicholson backs MVG for World Darts' glory

CHRIS HAMMER: Luke Humphries is as close to unstoppable as you can get in darts right now plus he has a great record here, reaching the quarter-finals three times before he’d even become such a big force.

CARL FLETCHER: Luke Humphries. Hard to oppose, confident, in the form of his life. The one to beat.

JAMES COOPER: The value has probably gone but a scintillating run of form has seen Luke Humphries jump to the head of the market and it’s very hard to dispute the statement that he’s the most likely winner.

Who will be runner-up?

ABIGAIL DAVIES: Gary Anderson. I just sit in awe when I think about some of the performances he’s treated us to on the floor in 2023, there were moments of sheer brilliance at the Grand Slam and even though he said what cost him in his quarter-final match against Luke Humphries was not being 15 years younger, I expect him to be wonderfully competitive throughout at Ally Pally.

PAUL NICHOLSON: I am going for Gary Anderson. A lot of people are tipping him to win it, but I think he will mirror what he did in the 2021and I think he makes his 6th final.

CHRIS HAMMER: Gerwyn Price’s expected meeting with Gary Anderson will probably decide the top half but I’m giving the edge to the Iceman as I believe he has the greater staying power in the long format.

CARL FLETCHER: Gerwyn Price. Draw hasn’t worked out too bad, played well all year. Got to be in the mix.

JAMES COOPER: At the prices, I’ve backed Gerwyn Price outright at 11/2 given he’s arguably in the slightly weaker top-half and is second-top rated with me. He’d be slight underdog against Humphries or Michael van Gerwen in a final, though.

Who is your tournament dark horse?

ABIGAIL DAVIES: I think Jim Williams could well face Radek Szaganski in round three and I’m going to pick the latter as my dark horse. He picked up his first Pro Tour title this year, I was on comms the weekend things really seemed to click for him in Leicester - he played Joe Cullen in the quarter-finals of Players Championship 11 and averaged just shy of 108. I think he comfortably beats Marko Kantela in the opening round and whilst Barney’s played some cracking stuff this year and got himself back into the top 32, I wouldn’t write the Pole off.

PAUL NICHOLSON: If you do not count Anderson as a dark horse, Rob Cross may camouflage himself from the attention and shouldn’t be ignored.

CHRIS HAMMER: Ross Smith has been averaging around 100 for the last two months and is coming into form at just the right time. Expect lots of 180s and a run to the semi-finals at 9/1.

CARL FLETCHER: Ross Smith. playing some good, huge scoring power. Capable of mixing it with the best.

JAMES COOPER: Quarter one could open up nicely and while he’s struggling to recapture the heights of a stellar year in 2021, I wouldn’t put anyone off Krzysztof Ratajski at huge odds.

How many nine-darters will there be?

ABIGAIL DAVIES: Two and I’m going to predict it’ll be MvG and Stephen Bunting who produce perfection

PAUL NICHOLSON: We have had 9-darters in the last few championships, but with only 3 big stage perfect legs this year, I think we will get near misses but no nine darter this time round.

CHRIS HAMMER: We’ve seen four in the last two World Champs, with three coming in the 2022 edition. So many players are capable and I was surprised we had to wait until the final last year to get one.

How many nine darters will we see?

CARL FLETCHER: One. History suggest zero or one is most likely. Think we’ll see several close calls but not sure many will take their opportunities.

JAMES COOPER: I don’t model 180s or nine darters but given the standard these days I’d be surprised were there not two or three perfect legs. I’ll plump for two.

Who is the biggest name at risk of an early exit?

ABIGAIL DAVIES: I’d not be surprised to see Jim Williams beat Peter Wright but I’ll go for Dirk van Duijvenbode. In the first few months of 2023 he seemed to be edging closer and closer to a first major title but due to his ongoing shoulder blade injury, he now appears to be further away than ever. I sincerely hope the issue is resolved as soon as possible so we can see more of the Aubergenius that picked up three titles in the opening four months of the year.

PAUL NICHOLSON: I think Andrew Gilding has had a wonderful 12 months but I see him playing Luke Littler in round two which is a slippery proposition.

CHRIS HAMMER: Peter Wright won't be heavily backed to win his first match but neither will 12th seed Dirk van Duijvenbode, who is in danger against either Keegan Brown or Boris Krcmar due to the injury problems that have ruined the second half of his season.

CARL FLETCHER: Peter Wright. Couldn’t have picked a much harder potential match up in Jim Williams, who’s playing well. Poses a definite threat to Snakebite

JAMES COOPER: I’ll touch on Michael Smith later so will offer Dimitri Van den Bergh instead given the form he arrives in. Neither Florian Hempel nor Dylan Slevin will fear the Belgian.

Which unseeded player will go furthest?

ABIGAIL DAVIES: I think Owen Bates and Jules van Dongen both have a good chance of winning a couple of games but I’d not be surprised to see World Youth Champion Luke Littler cause a few problems on debut. If Christian Kist is still struggling with injury, the 16-year-old should coast through that match, he doesn’t seem phased by anything, should have the patience to perform and maybe even get the better of Andrew Gilding to set up a tie with James Wade!

PAUL NICHOLSON: Either Littler or possibly David Cameron. If he gets his lucky wasp again, who knows what he could do against Jamie Hughes and beyond.

CHRIS HAMMER: Rising star Gian van Veen has enjoyed a superb season and won’t be fazed by the likes of Gabriel Clemens, Dave Chisnall or Nathan Aspinall in his section until Luke Humphries appears.

CARL FLETCHER: Luke Littler. A special, special talent. Hard to see him being phased by the occasion. Wide open section, capable of going deep.

JAMES COOPER: The winner of teenage sensation Luke Littler and former BDO World Champion Christian Kist may well do some damage in the second quarter with Andrew Gilding the next opponent.

READ OUR WORLD DARTS CHAMPIONSHIP GUIDE

Our free guide to the 2024 Paddy Power World Darts Championship is out now and includes expert insight, stats-based player profiles, the complete draw bracket, our best bets and more.

How far will the female players go?

ABIGAIL DAVIES: It’ll be incredibly interesting to see how Mikuru Suzuki responds to what happened during the final block of Women’s Series events of 2023. For much of the year, she and Beau Greaves had been the stand out players but she really struggled with the pressure applied by a late surge from the formidable Fallon Sherrock when it came to the race for the Grand Slam. Ricardo Pietreczko somewhat capitulated in Wolverhampton, I expect him to be stronger against The Miracle and to win 3-1. As for Sherrock, she’s created even more history in 2023, showed ridiculous resilience and quality to finish second in the Women’s Series order of merit. If she doesn’t beat Martin Schindler in the second round, I think she’ll certainly push him all the way.

PAUL NICHOLSON: They will both trouble their first round opponents and I can see one of them making round two via a tight margin, but I think round three could be a little tough this time. However, last time Sherrock qualified alongside Suzuki, she made round three in 2020.

CHRIS HAMMER: Fallon Sherrock will fancy her chances with the crowd behind her against Jermaine Wattimena and Martin Schindler who both have stage fright issues and I actually think she can prevail in both matches. But Mikuru Suzuki will struggle against Ricardo Pietreczko.

CARL FLETCHER: Both out in the first round but only just considering they both have winnable opening matches against players who need to handle the occasion.

JAMES COOPER: Fallon Sherrock has drawn a tough opponent in Jermaine Wattimena but if she were to come through that, Martin Schindler wouldn’t be an insurmountable hurdle. I don't have much confidence in Mikuru Suzuki winning her opener though.

What is your best bet?

ABIGAIL DAVIES: Gary Anderson to come through his quarter of the draw at 3/1

PAUL NICHOLSON: I’m going for David Cameron, Radek Szaganski, Luke Little, Luke Woodhouse and Ricky Evans all to win their first-round games at 7/1

CHRIS HAMMER: Luke Humphries to hit most 180s at 7/2 is a great way to back him. Everyone who tops this chart reaches the final and of all this year’s leading 180 hitters, he’s the most likely to get that far.

Why Luke Humphries can lift the Sid Waddell Trophy

CARL FLETCHER: MVG to hit a 170 checkout at 13/8. An annual best this, considering he’s done this in eight of the last eleven years and one of the years he failed he was eliminated early due to Covid.

JAMES COOPER: We all know how good Michael Smith, a brilliant winner of this in 2023, can be, but his form since on the whole leaves a fair bit to be desired. Bet365 go 5/1 on a second-round exit and I think that looks huge, with both Kevin Doets and the colourful Stowie Buntz shorter than that with me to claim a huge scalp.