Luke Littler and Luke Humphries will meet in the World Darts Championship final

PDC World Darts Championship final: Luke Littler v Luke Humphries betting tips, predictions, odds, statistics, H2H record & Sky Sports TV start time

By Chris Hammer

Darts

Wed January 03, 2024 · 11M ago

Luke Littler and Luke Humphries will contest the PDC's Paddy Power World Darts Championship final and our guide includes tournament statistics, head-to-head records, how they got here, betting tips plus TV details of when and where to watch.

After 15 days of history-making darting drama featuring classic matches, shocks, herculean comebacks, unexpected runs and 878 180s that's generated £878,000 to Prostate Cancer UK, the Sid Waddell Trophy will be fittingly lifted by a new champion.

It'll either be a 16-year-old whose astonishing talents and lack of fear continue to defy belief or the new world number one who is chasing his fourth major title since the start of October.

The only thing we're missing - like we were at this stage of last year's edition - is a nine-dart finish but we all know how that can change in potentially 13 more sets to come.

Luke Humphries is the marginal favourite after finally rediscovering his best form following a sluggish start to the tournament but Luke Littler will have pretty much everyone on his side as he bids to become the youngest world darts champion of all time.

Enough of the scene setting, here's a closer look at all the key statistics and other various factors to help you with your bets ahead Wednesday night's climax at the Alexandra Palace...

Darts betting tips: World Championship final

2pts Either player to hit a nine-dart finish at 8/1 (William Hill, BetVictor)

2pts Luke Humphries to win and hit most 180s at 7/4 (Sky Bet)

1pt both players to average over 100.5 at 2/1 (Ladbrokes)

1pt Luke Humphries to win 7-5 at 13/2 (William Hill)

1pt 33+ 180s and 7+ 100+ checkouts in the match at 6/4 (Sky Bet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Luke Littler (6/5) v Luke Humphries (8/11)

PDC World Darts Championship final: Wednesday January 3
TV coverage & start time: Sky Sports Main Event (1945 GMT)
Format: Best of 13 sets. All sets best of five legs except the 13th, when either player will need to win by two clear legs until it reaches a sudden-death leg at 5-5.

Littler v Humphries: Head-to-head record

Overall Head-to-Head: 0-1
Televised Head-to-Head: 0-0

Normally this section of my major final previews is packed full of past meetings but obviously the fact we've got a 16-year-old finalist who hasn't even played on the PDC Tour yet means there's pretty much nothing to see here!

However, the sporting romantic in me wants to include their only known clash in a small Hayling Island competition back in 2019 when Humphries beat a 12-year-old Littler in the quarter-finals.

Littler was asked about this after his stunning victory over Rob Cross on Tuesday night and I found it quite endearing that he focused more on how far Humphries has come since that meeting rather than himself!

Littler v Humphries: 2024 World Championship statistics

(Luke Littler figures on the left, scroll further down for match-by-match stats)

Tournament Average: 101.82 - 99.33
100+ match averages: 4 - 2
Highest average: 106.12 (R1) - 108.74 (SF)
Lowest average: 92.65 (R2) - 91.38 (R2)
Tournament 180s: 50 - 50
180s per leg: 0.38 - 0.39
Checkout percentage: 44.68% (84/188) - 40.62% (78/192)
Sets won/lost: 25/6 - 22/7
Legs won/lost: 84/48 - 78/51
100+ checkouts: 11 - 11
Per leg won: 13.09% - 14.10%
Highest checkout: 164 - 170
Match Treble% (win, most 180s + high C/O): 60% - 40%

If you isolated these stats and ignored every other factor including age and inexperience - although Littler is making both of those seem completely and utterly irrelevant anyway - then you'd probably have to make the 'Nuke' the slight favourite.

Even though averages are 'just a guide', to be well above 100 after six matches is the kind of level reached or exceeded by the likes of Phil Taylor, Michael van Gerwen and Gary Anderson down the years, while he's also managed it two more times than Humphries.

However, Cool Hand has moved through the gears in emphatic fashion in his last two matches after dodging multiple bullets in the previous rounds and if he maintains that standard then Littler may finally meet his match.

As for the other areas of the games, it couldn't be much closer. They are both level of 50 maximums in the race to lift the Ballon d'Art and judging from their 180 per leg rates, that trophy hangs in the balance too.

We could also see plenty of 100+ checkouts given how prolific they've been - Humphries even managed six in the 18 legs he won against Scott Williams.

CLICK HERE to back both players to average over 100 with Sky Bet

CLICK HERE to back 33+ 180s and 7+ 100+ checkouts with Sky Bet

WATCH MY INTERVIEW WITH PAUL NICHOLSON ABOUT LUKE LITTLER BEING THE NEXT PHIL TAYLOR

IS LUKE LITTLER THE NEXT PHIL TAYLOR AND WILL HE BE IN THE PREMIER LEAGUE?

Luke Littler v Luke Humphries: 2023 stats pre-World Championship

Three-Dart Average: 92.63 – 98.59
180s per leg: 0.31 – 0.33
Checkout percentage: 37.95% - 41.52%
100+ checkout per leg won: 9.82% - 10.60%
Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): Unavailable - 27.88%

Obviously these statistics are not quite so relevant especially now we know what Littler can produce on the biggest stage of all on a regular basis but any Humphries backers will be relieved to see how his recent performances are more in line with the stunning stats we saw from him throughout 2023.

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Routes to the World Championship final

LUKE LITTLER

R1: 3-0 v Christian Kist
Set scores: 3-0, 3-1, 3-1
Average: 106.12
180s: 7 (0.63 per leg)
100+ Checkouts: 1 (High: 106)
Checkout %: 50% (9/18)

R2: 3-1 v Andrew Gilding
Set scores: 3-2, 3-2, 0-3, 3-1
Average: 92.65
180s: 5 (0.29 per leg)
100+ Checkouts: 0 (High: 80)
Checkout %: 34.6% (9/26)
R3: 4-1 v Matt Campbell
Set scores: 3-0, 3-0, 3-2, 2-3, 3-1
Average: 97.19
180s: 8 (0.40 per leg)
100+ Checkouts: 3 (High: 164)
Checkout %: 40% (14/35)
R4: 4-1 v Raymond van Barneveld
Set scores: 3-1, 3-1, 3-2, 2-3, 3-2
Average: 105.01
180s: 9 (0.39 per leg)
100+ Checkouts: 1 (High: 100)
Checkout %: 50% (14/28)

QF: 5-1 v Brendan Dolan
Set scores: 3-2, 3-0, 3-2, 3-1, 1-3, 3-0
Average: 101.93
180s: 5 (0.23 per leg)
100+ Checkouts: 3 (High: 140)
Checkout %: 47.1% (16/34)
SF: 6-2 v Rob Cross
Set scores: 2-3, 3-2, 3-1, 3-2, 2-3, 3-1, 3-1, 3-2
Average: 106.05
180s: 16 (0.43 per leg)
100+ Checkouts: 3 (High: 149)
Checkout %: 46.8% (22/47)

Breathtaking isn't it?

If you were shown these match-by-match statistics and were told 'this is what Phil Taylor/Michael van Gerwen/Gary Anderson' managed on his way to the **** final', for example, you believe them and also whimsically remember just how good they were in their pomp.

And here's an interesting fact for you that further underlines how staggering his stats are. Those aforementioned legends above are the only players to have managed four or more 100+ averages en route to a final! Taylor and Anderson have done it in four different tournaments apiece while MVG did it in three. This lad is special.

In Brendan Dolan, he battered a player who made life so difficult for Gerwyn Price and Anderson but the only thing missing from this run - and I expressed this during my preview for the semi-finals in which I foolishly backed Rob Cross - was that he hadn't felt the pressure of playing anyone ranked higher than 20th who could throw a big average in against him.

Well he handled that well, didn't he! Voltage averaged 102 and even won the opening set but Littler bounced back to brush another former world champion aside without hardly breaking sweat.

Littler even said afterwards that nothing has felt difficult. So not only does he make it look easy, he probably actually feels like it is.

The only player who has given him something to think about is Andrew Gilding, who managed to win eight of the 17 legs played despite losing 3-1 in sets.

LUKE HUMPHRIES

R2: 3-0 v Lee Evans
Set scores: 3-1, 3-2, 3-2
Average: 93.58
180s: 6 (0.43 per leg)
100+ Checkouts: 0 (High: 85)
Checkout %: 37.5% (9/24)
R3: 4-3 v Ricardo Pietreczko
Set scores: 3-1, 1-3, 2-3, 0-3, 3-2, 3-1, 3-0
Average: 91.38
180s: 6 (0.21 per leg)
100+ Checkouts: 0 (High: 96)
Checkout %: 37.5% (15/40)

R4: 4-3 v Joe Cullen
Set scores: 2-3, 0-3, 3-1, 3-2, 2-3, 3-0, 6-5
Average: 99.23
180s: 12 (0.33 per leg)
100+ Checkouts: 2 (High: 100)
Checkout %: 33.9% (19/56)

QF: 5-1 v Dave Chisnall
Set scores: 3-1, 2-3, 3-1, 3-2, 3-2, 3-0
Average: 103.50
180s: 12 (0.43 per leg)
100+ Checkouts: 3 (High: 164)
Checkout %: 40.5% (17/42)
SF: 6-0 v Scott Williams
Set scores: 3-2, 3-0, 3-2, 3-2, 3-0, 3-1
Average: 108.74
180s: 14 (0.56 per leg)
100+ Checkouts: 6 (High: 170)
Checkout %: 60% (18/30)

Humphries stormed into the World Championship as the favourite - and my pre-tournament tip - because there was quite frankly no stopping him. He was winning majors and posting 100+ averages for fun, while he was continually showing the kind of mental strength that was lacking from his game in previous seasons.

Then all of a sudden his momentum ground to a worrying halt when trailing Ricardo Pietreczko in front raucous German support 3-1 in round three and it looked as though nothing could save him. Certainly not his actual darts, which were a brand new set due to a point breaking off one of his usual set.

But after winning the deciding leg of set five, he went on to win six of the next seven legs to pull off an incredible comeback and keep his hopes alive.

Those hopes were hanging by a thread in the very next round when survived two match darts against a heart-broken Joe Cullen before coming through one of most ridiculous endings you'll ever see.

If he does indeed lift this trophy then he'll have no shortage of 'what if' moments to look back on but he left nothing to chance in the last two rounds, averaging 103.5 and 108.74 against Dave Chisnall and Scott Williams respectively, dropping just one set combined.

That's his scary level - especially the 108.74 which is the 10th highest average in World Championship history - and one I really hope he delivers tonight against Littler. Not just because I backed him, but because if Littler can respond with something similar, we could be about to witness one of the most astonishing finals ever.

CLICK HERE to back both players to average over 100.5 with Sky Bet

World Championship final predictions and tips

This is the most eagerly-anticipated World Championship final for generations and all signs point to this living up to the hype in the same way Taylor v Barney did all those years ago.

The fact that it's so hard to call is also remarkable because it's a clash between a pre-tournament favourite and a 16-year-old who nobody thought would be here before a dart was thrown.

But way Littler despatched Rob Cross, who produced big numbers, proved he really can cope with a proper world title contender on the biggest stage of all and really isn't fazed by the pressure whatsoever.

He'll just get up there again and so pretty much the same as if he's been doing it for years.

Humphries' calming and friendly presence obviously won't intimidate him and, if anything, there's been more fear factor built up around Littler's game. He's made grown men buckle up there despite all the experience they had.

Cool Hand, however, is a completely different proposition. One of his strongest assets now is his mental strength and the fact he rarely shows any sign of emotion anymore. He too will stay focused and keep trusting his own process.

Their fast, free-flowing styles will also compliment each other. It will be an absolute darting joy to watch.

This time last year I tipped a nine-dart finish in the final and I'm going to do the same again. I'm even tempted to tip both of them to have one given how spectacular they're playing and the amount of sets we may see but I'll be slightly less bold and stick with any perfect leg at 8/1.

I also love how this bet can never be dead until the winning double is hit.

CLICK HERE to back either player to hit a nine-dart finish with Sky Bet

If Humphries had laboured into this final then I would absolutely be going for Littler but Cool Hand's dominance in the last two games shows he's back to his very best and in no mood to mess around with drama anymore.

The world number one will want to go out and put Littler to the sword - and that's exactly the mentality he'll need to stand a chance.

I'm going to throw in Humphries to fire in the most 180s as well because he was managing 0.43 and 0.56 per leg in the past two matches and if he's in relentless mood tonight, not even Littler's impressive levels will keep up.

Both are landing a prolific number of 100+ checkouts so we can expect a fair few of those as well, especially if we get plenty of sets that we're all expecting.

Finally, sit back and place a fictional £1000 on it being one of the best finals of all time. I'll give you 1/1000!

Scoreline prediction: Littler 5-7 Humphries (Sky Bet Price: 6/1)

CLICK HERE to back Luke Humphries to win and hit most 180s with Sky Bet

CLICK HERE to back Luke Humphries to win 7-5 with Sky Bet

Luke Littler: Roll of honour

Senior titles (WDF)

British Classic - 2023
British Open - 2023
British Internationals 2022
Irish Open 2021
Isle of Man Classic 2023
Romanian Classic 2022
Welsh Open 2022

Major Youth titles

PDC World Youth Championship - 2023
JDC World Championship - 2022, 2023
PDC Development Tour titles 2023 (x5)

Luke Humphries: Roll of honour

World Grand Prix (2023)
Grand Slam of Darts (2023)
Players Championship Finals (2023)
5x European Tour titles
4x Players Championship titles
World Youth Championship (2019)

What time does Littler v Humphries start and what TV channel is it on?

Coverage of the final between Luke Littler and Luke Humphries starts at 7.30pm on Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Darts, with the match expected to begin around 8.00pm.