Sporting Life
Michael Smith won his first World Darts Championship title
Michael Smith won his first World Darts Championship title

PDC World Darts Championship 2024: Day one predictions, betting tips, acca, order of play and TV time

By Chris Hammer
Darts
Sat December 16, 2023 · 1y ago

The 2024 Paddy Power World Darts Championship gets under way at the Alexandra Palace on Friday night so check out Chris Hammer's match-by-match predictions, best bets and a suggested acca.

Defending champion Michael Smith begins his campaign at the Ally Pally tonight while there are three first-round games before that.

Here's our match-by-match guide to all of the action...

Darts betting tips: World Championship day one

1pt Stowe Buntz to beat Kevin Doets at 5/4 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

1pt over 3.5 sets in Whitlock v Nebrida at 6/4 (Sky Bet)

1pt Michael Smith v Doets/Buntz to have most 180s in the session at 6/4 (Sky Bet)

SL Acca: Buntz, Rodriguez (+1.5) & over 3.5 sets in Whitlock v Nebrida at 8/1 with Sky Bet

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Evening Session (1900 GMT)

  • TV Coverage: Sky Sports
  • Format: First round/second round, best of five sets

Kevin Doets (8/11) v Stowe Buntz (5/4) (R1)

  • Three-Dart Average (2023): 90.52 - 86.92
  • 180s per leg (2023): 0.23 - 0.16
  • Checkout % (Stage Events 2023): 27.94% - 36.78%
  • 100+ checkout per leg won (2023): 11.25% - 13.82%
  • Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 11.46% - 20%

It must be an honour and a curse in equal measure to open up any World Championship. After all, even if you avoid the earliest of exits while some fans are still filtering into the arena, the likelihood is that you'll be knocked out a few hours later by the defending champion.

Stowe Buntz, a crane and rigging manager from Virginia, booked his maiden spot at the Ally Pally via the CDC Pro Tour and lacks big-stage experience but anyone who watched the Grand Slam of Darts last month will know he won't be fazed by the occasion.

The colourful and confident American beat Peter Wright, Stephen Bunting and Andrew Gilding en route to the quarter-finals, where the Bullet eventually got his revenge in the longer format, and averaged around 90 for the tournament, which is markedly higher than he managed in the CDC this year.

Kevin Doets is a solid operator coming to the end of his second season on the Pro Tour and even reached a Players Championship event final against Luke Humphries back in September.

However, he averaged in the 80s during both his matches at the Players Championship Finals and his usual level isn't much higher so there's nothing really for the marginal outsider to fear and I'm backing him to prolong his stay in the competition by a few hours.

Scoreline prediction: 1-3

READ OUR WORLD DARTS CHAMPIONSHIP GUIDE

Our free guide to the 2024 Paddy Power World Darts Championship is out now and includes expert insight, stats-based player profiles, the complete draw bracket, our best bets and more.

Cameron Menzies (4/7) v Rusty-Jake Rodriguez (8/5) (R1)

  • Three-Dart Average (2023): 93.91 - 90.56
  • 180s per leg (2023): 0.28 - 0.24
  • Checkout % (Stage Events 2023): 30.48% - N/A
  • 100+ checkout per leg won (2023): 11.42% - 12.77 %
  • Match Treble %: 10.75% - 12.66%

Cameron Menzies is here by virtue of being ranked in the world's top 64 whereas Rusty-Jake Rodriguez had to come through the last-gasp qualifying event, where he averaged 107 in his final match.

Both players are capable of a very high level on their day but Menzies is much more consistent on tour and has averaged over three points higher in all competitions.

That said, Rodriguez did win their only meeting this season back in September and will have pretty fond memories of this stage having given Chris Dobey a real scare in the second round here two years ago.

This is the Austrian's first appearance on a stage in 2023 and that does give Menzies a slight advantage, although I wouldn't be surprised to see this go to five sets.

Scoreline prediction: 3-2

Simon Whitlock (1/11) v Paolo Nebrida (17/2) (R1)

  • Three-Dart Average (2023): 91.88 - 85.29
  • 180s per leg (2023): 0.30 - 0.12
  • Checkout % (Stage Events 2023): 30.95% - N/A
  • 100+ checkout per leg won (2023): 10.49% - 8.37%
  • Match Treble %: 21.88% - N/A

Simon Whitlock will be expected to brush Paolo Nebrida aside a lot more comfortably than Danny Jansen managed 12 months ago in a rather arduous five-set encounter in which both players averaged in the low 80s.

However, both of Whitlock's matches on this stage last year were also low-quality battles that went the distance so I wouldn't be advising anyone to lump on a 3-0 scoreline at odds-on prices. In fact, odds-against about four or more sets looks the value.

The Wizard's season has been disappointing and averaged in the mid-80s during a first-round exit at the Players Championship Finals last month but you'd like to think he'd still have more than enough quality to come through, perhaps in four.

Scoreline prediction: 3-1

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Michael Smith v Doets/Buntz (R2)

  • Three-Dart Average (2023): 95.48 -
  • 180s per leg (2023): 0.31
  • Checkout % (Stage Events 2023): 39.57%
  • 100+ checkout per leg won (2023): 12.56% -
  • Match Treble %: 27.97% - 12.66%

Obviously we can't write too much of a preview considering how Michael Smith's opponent can't be easily predicted but I think he'd rather face Doets having seen what Buntz was capable of at the Grand Slam.

Either way, the defending champion should come through this despite a rather rocky season in which he's struggled to sparkle as much as everyone thought he would after lifting the Sid Waddell Trophy so spectacularly back in January.

I can see Doets or Buntz taking a set off him which gives this match a chance of producing most 180s considering how prolific Smith is compared to everyone else on the oche tonight - especially at this venue.

The favourite in this market is Cameron Menzies v Rusty-Jake Rodriguez due to how close it looks on paper and how steady their 180s per leg ratios are but Smith is worth siding with here.

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