Michael van Gerwen

PDC World Darts Championship 2023: Day 15 semi-final predictions, betting tips, acca, order of play and TV time

By Chris Hammer

Darts

Mon January 02, 2023 · 2y ago

The Cazoo World Darts Championship semi-finals take place on Monday night so check out Chris Hammer's match-by-match predictions, best bets and a suggested double.

Just four remain in the hunt for glory at the Ally Pally but Michael van Gerwen is the clear favourite to get his hands on the trophy for the fourth time in his career.

Previews and tips will appear below for both semi-finals but you can check out the tournament and seasonal stats of all four players below...

Darts betting tips: World Championship day 15

1pt Michael Smith to win, hit most 180s and both players to hit one or more 100+ checkout at evens (Sky Bet)

1pt Van Gerwen to win and Van den Bergh hit the most 180s at 6/4 (William Hill)

SL Double: Smith (-2.5 sets) and van Gerwen (-2.5 sets) both to win at 7/4 with Sky Bet

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

World Darts Championship: Monday, January 2

TV Coverage: Sky Sports, 1930 GMT
Round and Format: Semi-Finals (Best of 11 sets)
Statistics: The below stats are from this year's World Championship but the ones in brackets (courtesy of @CarlyFletch and his @DartsTracker) are their seasonal data. The averages and 180 per leg data is for all PDC events in 2022, while checkout percentage is for stage events only.

Dimitri Van den Bergh (4/1) v Michael van Gerwen (1/7)

Statistics are from this year's World Championship. The figures in brackets are their seasonal data.

Head to Head (TV): 1-11, 1 draw (0-3, 1 draw)
2022 Head to Head (TV): 0-4 (0-2)
Three-Dart Average: 95.12 (95.66) - 103.63 (98.43)
180s per leg (2022): 0.31 (0.30) - 0.30 (0.27)
Checkout %: 42.50% (40.41) - 41.27% (39.01)
100+ checkout per leg won: 1.9% (11.10) - 7.69% (13.78)
Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 50% (23.31) - 50% (26.71)

It's hard to see how anyone stops Michael van Gerwen from winning a fourth world title.

The Dutchman continued his march towards his first Ally Pally crown since 2019 with a rampaging 5-0 victory over Chris Dobey in which he averaged over 100 for the fourth time in a row.

In fact it was the 11th time that he'd reached three figures in his last 15 matches since losing to Dobey at the European Championship and during that run his overall average is just over the 102 mark.

On New Year's Day he posted 102.39 and won 15 of the 18 legs played in such a one-sided contest that punters going high on maximums and 100+ checkouts would have been left disappointed.

Van Gerwen heads into this 13th meeting against Dimitri Van den Bergh having only failed to win twice - and one of those was a Premier League draw back in 2021.

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MVG last lost to the Belgian back in 2018 so he's won seven of the eight matches since then, including all four in 2022.

The most high profile of those came in the World Matchplay semi-finals back in July and on that occasion van Gerwen battled back from 13-10 down to triumph 17-14, with both players averaging in the high 90s and each throwing nine 180s.

Van den Bergh landed four 100+ checkouts that night but strangely he's only managed once during this World Championship run in the 51 legs won and that certainly has to be viewed as an outliner rather than evidence to suggest he's weak at that area of the game.

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They met again in the third round of November's Players Championship Finals, with MVG running out a comfortable 10-6 winner with a 106 averaged compared to VDB's 92. He also fired in 10 of the 12 maximums, which is quite a strange result considering van den Bergh has a higher seasonal ratio of 0.30 per leg compared to 0.27.

The DreamMaker - who should really be now nicknamed the 'Speechmaker' - upped his maximum-hitting game considerably against Jonny Clayton as he fired 13 in just 32 legs and he'll be hoping to be that prolific tonight in order to apply as much pressure on MVG as possible.

Van Gerwen's 180 hitting can be hard to predict - for example he managed 12 in his 4-2 triumph over Mensur Suljovic (0.42 per leg) but only three (0.15 per leg) when beating Dirk van Duijvenbode, who achieved six despite the despondency of being blown away, and five against Dobey (0.27 per leg).

However, even if he finds his range then Van den Bergh can still give him more than a run for his money in that department and if they perform to usual rates then the Belgian should hit more.

Scoreline Prediction: 3-6

CLICK HERE to back Van Gerwen to win and Van den Bergh hit the most 180s with Sky Bet

Gabriel Clemens (5/2) v Michael Smith (2/7)

Statistics are from this year's World Championship. The figures in brackets are their seasonal data.

Head to Head (TV): 1-4 (0-1)
2022 Head to Head (TV): 0-1 (0-1)
Three-Dart Average: 96.96 (92.30) - 95.97 (96.83)
180s per leg (2022): 0.29 (0.27) - 0.27 (0.35)
Checkout %: 38.81% (34.13) - 41.86% (39.46)
100+ checkout per leg won: 13.46% (9.94) - 7.40% (10.20)
Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 50% (21.24) - 25% (32.00)

Gabriel Clemens produced the performance of his life to reach the semi-finals but the scale of his achievement got completely lost amidst Gerwyn Price's ear defenders and his subsequent instagram post.

At least the German media - and huge sections of the Ally Pally crowd - gave him the attention he deserved last night after continuing his history making run in quite some style.

Clemens had already become the first German to reach the quarter-finals of the PDC World Darts Championship and although many expected him to be overawed by the occasion, he averaged almost 100, threw eight of the 13 maximums and only conceded seven legs in a surprisingly one-sided 5-1 victory.

However, without wanting to take much away from his display, Price wasn't at the races after winning the first set so impressively in 42 darts and the crowd quite clearly got to him. Afterwards he took to social media to say he's 'not sure' about playing in the tournament again but hopefully that was just one of his knee-jerk reactions we can take with a pinch of salt.

The Gentle Giant did also miss quite a lot of darts at doubles - even at times when Price was way back in the leg and not applying any pressure - so maybe nerves were getting to him a little and simply wasn't punished for it. Then as Price's game fell apart, Clemens could coast towards the finishing line and he probably can't believe his luck.

Michael Smith won't obviously have the same crowd problems to deal with and I'd fully expect him to unleash the kind of pressure that the German would have expected from Price, and maybe then we'll see Clemens' lack of comparative experience take its toll.

Bully Boy was well below his high-scoring best against Stephen Bunting, averaging just 91.63 and throwing just six of the 20 maximums in the match but at least his finishing was extremely clinical as he pinned 47% of his doubles compared to his opponent's 24%.

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In his post-match interview, Smith admitted he put himself under too much pressure to 'embarrass' Bunting over some comments made by his St Helens rival and I'm sure he'd be the first to admit he needs to put all that to one side and focus on what he does best.

There won't be any needle against Clemens, who he has beaten four times out of five including a 10-8 victory at this year's UK Open, and I think we'll see a return to the kind of standard that helped him average 103.25 in his 4-1 victory over Joe Cullen.

He threw 10 maximums encounter in just 21 legs and that's the kind of firepower we've come to expect from him.

Clemens actually boasts a higher 180 per leg ratio during this tournament but seasonally Smith's 0.35 is much higher than his opponent's 0.27 and that's why I'd expect him to throw more tonight, especially considering he's so much more used to delivering in pressure cooker situations.

Bully Boy fired in nine in 21 legs during the Grand Slam of Darts final (0.43 per leg) and 17 over 28 legs in his semi-final (0.61 per leg) while don't forget even in last year's final against Peter Wright he managed 24 in 50 legs (0.48) as he broke the overall tournament record.

The Smith win-most 180s double is marginally odds-on with most bookies but Sky Bet offer evens on a special RAB which also needs both players to have a 100+ checkout as well.

Clemens has landed seven 100+ finishes so far - winning 13.46% of his legs that way - and while you'd still expect the St Helens star to achieve one in such a long format match.