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PDC World Darts Championship 2023: Day one predictions, betting tips, acca, order of play and TV time

By Chris Hammer

Darts

Fri December 23, 2022 · 2y ago

The PDC World Darts Championship gets under way on Thursday night so check out Chris Hammer's match-by-match predictions, best bets and a suggested acca.

The Dartmas festivities can finally begin at a packed Alexandra Palace, where defending champion Peter Wright will be taking to the oche.

Here, we look ahead to all four matches with seasonal statistics to help...

Darts betting tips: World Championship night one

2pts Keane Barry to win, hit the highest checkout and the most 180s at 11/8 (Sky Bet, BetVictor)

SL Acca: Robb (+1.5), Rafferty (+1.5) and Barry to win 3-0 at 3/1 with Sky Bet

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

World Championship: Thursday, December 15

TV Coverage: Sky Sports, 1900 GMT
Round and Format: Rounds 1 & 2 (Best of five sets)
In the below stats (courtesy of @CarlyFletch) and his @DartsTracker), the averages and 180 per leg data is for all PDC events in 2022, while checkout percentage is for stage events only. For players who haven't played in any PDC events like Ben Robb and Grant Sampson, any data available is only from their World Championship qualification route.

Mickey Mansell (8/13) v Ben Robb (6/5) (R1)

Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
2022 Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
Three-Dart Average (2022): 91.68 - 96.07 (from his qualification final)
180s per leg (2022): 0.19 - Unavailable
Checkout % (Stage Events 2022): 44.79% - Unavailable
100+ checkout per leg won (2022): 9.81% - Unavailable
Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 17.39% - Unavailable

There isn't much data available for Ben Robb but the average of 96 he produced in the final of the DartPlayers New Zealand Qualifier against Haupai Puha won't have surprised the very astute darts fans.

The 34-year-old has managed high 80s averages on his last two appearances on this stage in the 2020 and 2022 editions - albeit in 3-0 and 3-1 defeats to Ron Meulenkamp and Rusty-Jake Rodriguez respectively - while he always seems to impress in his World Series outings.

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This year he managed 93 in a 6-3 defeat to Gerwyn Price at the New Zealand Darts Masters while a couple of years earlier he averaged 96 twice against Simon Whitlock (6-4) and Rob Cross (3-8), so he's certainly no pushover and Mickey Mansell will have his work cut out.

Mansell isn't exactly the warmest of favourites and has a terrible record here having lost six of his seven matches on this stage dating back to 2011 - although his only win came against Puha during the 2021 edition.

This definitely has upset potential and I fancy this to go the distance.

Scoreline prediction: 2-3

Keane Barry (1/10) v Grant Sampson (9/1) (R1)

Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
2022 Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
Three-Dart Average (2022): 92.74 - Unavailable
180s per leg (2022): 0.18 - Unavailable
Checkout % (Stage Events 2022): 38.78% - Unavailable
100+ checkout per leg won (2022): 12.71% - Unavailable
Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 16.04% - Unavailable

Grant Sampson isn't a name you'll be familiar - unless you kept your finger on the pulse of the African qualifying event, in which he stunned Devon Petersen in a last-leg decider before overcoming Laezeltrich Wentzel 8-3 in the final.

Everyone would have expected Petersen to comfortably come through the qualifier despite his slide down the PDC rankings and reach the Ally Pally for a 10th time but Sampson now has the chance of a lifetime.

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I've struggled to find any stats from his event but they'd be pretty meaningless anyway given he's never experienced playing darts on anything like this kind of scale before.

He recently told the Darts Actueel You Tube channel: "The crowds we play in front of are about 40-50 people and I get nervous then - as well as when I do any public speaking. So Devon advised me 'I know you're scared but just put one foot in front of the other to get to the stage, greet the crowd then start your job.

"I'm excited but really nervous knowing I'm playing in front of thousands of people and millions watching around the world. It blows my mind."

Honestly, after watching that interview I'm more desperate for him to win a set than any other player in the tournament because it would really make his dreams come true. But sadly I can't really see that happening considering how far Keane Barry has come in elite company over the past couple of years and it should be a whitewash.

The Irishman may have battled to a 3-2 victory in last year's first round over Roydan Lam, averaging in the low 80s, but he showed his true potential against Jonny Clayton in a classic, bowing out 3-2 with a 96 average and firing in four 180s as well as FIVE 100+ checkouts.

He's gone on to have a very steady season on the Pro Tour - as well as finishing third behind Nathan Raffery and Josh Rock on the Development Tour - while he also enjoying a cracking run to the UK Open semi-finals and was averaging very healthily between 93 and 100 during his three Players Championship Finals performances.

Barry's 100+ checkout per leg won stats this year of 12.71% is impressive compared to most players and if he wins the vast majority of legs in this clash, then you'd expect him to nail the highest. His slight vulnerability could be the most 180s based on his maximum per leg ratio but I still feel the match treble price is very generous.

Scoreline prediction: 3-0

CLICK HERE to back Barry to win, hit most 180s and have the highest checkout with Sky Bet

Jermaine Wattimena (8/15) v Nathan Rafferty (11/8) (R1)

Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
2022 Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
Three-Dart Average (2022): 92.37 - 91.45
180s per leg (2022): 0.18 - 0.17
Checkout % (Stage Events 2022): 33.78% - 39.02%
100+ checkout per leg won (2022): 12.48% - 10.87
Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 16.22% - 17.89%

Nathan Rafferty is one of the rising stars of Northern Irish darts and even achieved a headline-making victory long before Josh Rock - despite still being only 22.

Rafferty stunned Peter Wright 10-9 on his TV debut at the 2018 UK Open when Snakebite was defending champion while he also knocked out Dirk van Duivenbode out of the same event a couple of years later and then qualified for the knockout stages of the 2021 Grand Slam of Darts - a feat he couldn't quite repeat last month in a group alongside Michael van Gerwen and Ross Smith.

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He may not have enjoyed an eye-catching year on the Pro Tour but he topped the Development Tour Order of Merit ahead of Rock and Keane Barry to earn his Ally Pally debut and his seasonal stats suggest he will give Jermaine Wattimena a tough match.

The Machine Gun crashed out in the first round last year to Boris Koltsov 3-0 and has endured a mediocre season since then apart from edging past Damon Heta in the Grand Slam group stage prior to a sound defeat against Nathan Aspinall.

A tough one to call but I'll side with the underdog in this one as he strives to make another impression on the big stage.

Scoreline prediction: 1-3

Peter Wright v Mansell/Robb (R2)

Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
2022 Head to Head (TV): 0-0 (0-0)
Three-Dart Average (2022): 97.42 - 91.68/96.07
180s per leg (2022): 0.31 - 0.19/Unavailable
Checkout % (Stage Events 2022): 37.42% - 44.79%/Unavailable
100+ checkout per leg won (2022): 14.62% - 9.81%/Unavailable
Match Treble % (Win, most 180s & high checkout): 23.78% - 17.39%/Unavailable

Obviously we can't preview this one yet but I can't see Peter Wright having too many problems whoever he faces, despite his personal concerns away from the oche in recent weeks.

As I wrote in my pre-tournament preview, Snakebite is in a much better place now that his wife Jo is out of hospital and well on the road to making a full recovery and should he get past this first assignment, then he'll be able to practice hard until he returns to the Ally Pally after Christmas.

Wright has suffered a couple of shock second-round defeats in 2018 and 2019 - while he crashed out in the third last time he was defending the title in the 2021 edition - so don't be surprised to see him drop a set in a stuttering start, but ultimately I expect him to be far too strong.

Scoreline prediction: 3-1