Luke Littler is undoubtedly one of the most exciting teenage prospects in darts today, but what are the realistic expectations for him at the age of just 16?
‘The Nuke’ has virtually already earned a PDC World Championship debut - and a Tour Card for next season – due to his exploits on the Development Tour in 2023 while he further underlined his rich potential over the past few months by winning the third and fourth stagings of the Modus Super Series.
Both of those titles pocketed him £20,000 apiece but there will surely be more lucrative prizes to come over the coming years once he starts mixing it with the world’s best.
He won the Irish Open at the age of 14 in 2021 and since then he’s accumulated four WDF ranked titles overall, including the prestigious Welsh Open.
On top of all this, he’s a JDC World Champion, already has senior World Championship experience at the Lakeside in the WDF, has hit two competitive nine-darters, averaged over 100 during a match at the UK Open back in March, and will be among the favourites to win the PDC World Youth Championship later this year.
Too much too soon?
The debate about what he should do next is only just starting because he currently sits at number two on the Development Tour Order of Merit and if it stays like that, he will be awarded with a two-year PDC Tour Card from 2024 alongside third-placed Wessel Nijman – because leader Gian van Veen already has one.
Mathematically, it’s highly unlikely that he will get caught in the remaining tournaments of the season, so a Tour Card and World Championship qualification is on its way very soon.
There’s plenty of big decisions for him to make in the near future but what should his next steps be, how good can he become and would it even be a shock to see him producing a fairytale run at Alexandra Palace this December?
He's going to grab a lot of headlines going into that, but the biggest question is whether all these huge opportunities are coming too soon?
A few years ago, Dean Reynolds was a hotshot young player from Wales and he thought it was too soon to be going to the PDC Tour and opted against taking a card that he’d earned. He wanted to learn his trade a bit more for a couple of years before making the step up. It didn’t materialise the way he planned.
He suffered a loss of form while he had to deal with some personal problems. Now he’s in his late 20s and has hasn’t graced the PDC circuit as a full time pro. Whereas now with Littler, there's so much in the way of headlines and hype because of how much talent he’s already shown at such a young age – it would take a lot of willpower for him not to step up as soon as possible.
Should he just wait until he's 18 or something like that or strike while the iron is hot?
This is where he needs a lot of wise heads around him giving the best advice without an ulterior motive. He needs good sponsors and management who don’t put pressure on him and his parents need to truly understand that if he is going to go on the PDC Tour for the next two years, things will get very tough.
His network of friends has got to be spot on because there will be temptations coming his way and people who will want to get their percentage and get their pound of flesh. This is coming from my experience. When you're a hot shot player coming into the tour, things are expected of you and people are going to want a piece of you.
This is where at his young age he's got to be guarded very well in the same way that Alex Ferguson used to guard the likes of Paul Scholes and Wayne Rooney during their youth. The support network has to be right there all the time and give him the opportunity to play his best, but ultimately to protect him as well.
I've said for years that the majority of thin-skinned players shouldn't be on social media. They should be far from it. I think Luke is a very level headed young man and all he wants to do is play darts and win.
I think Target Darts, who sponsor him, have got a duty of care as do his management company ZXF, who look after Chris Dobey and Nathan Aspinall, as well as the PDC.
I suppose if we've got to compare him to anyone, it’s Keane Barry. He wasn't a card holder until after the age of 18, but he had a stunning amount of promise. Now he's a mainstay of the tour. I think if Luke is going to model himself on anybody, Keane Barry isn’t a bad yardstick as far as trying to make inroads into the tour and how to conduct yourself.
Keane is an impeccable young pro and that is the kind of path that I would like to see Luke Littler on, even though he's probably going to come into it with more pressure than Keane did.
World Ambition
It’s absolutely crazy to think Luke Littler is as short as 66/1 to win the next World Championship – which is the same price as you can get for the likes of Chris Dobey, Joe Cullen, Ryan Searle and Damon Heta!
He’s shorter in places than James Wade, Danny Noppert and the reigning European champion Ross Smith!
Everyone above him – and there’s only around a dozen – are the biggest names in the sport! There’s many dangerous, seasoned professionals like Daryl Gurney and Krzysztof Ratajski, Gabriel Clemens, Raymond van Barneveld and Jose de Sousa are much bigger three-figure prices.
That just goes to show how much the bookies are running scared of his talents and how much they think punters will be backing him.
The same happened with Josh Rock last year when he went into his debut World Championship with very little senior experience behind him as one of the shorter priced players.
It took a masterful Jonny Clayton to take out Rock last year and there will be enough people out there expecting Luke to do something special, prompting the bookies to take cover.
He also has experience of a PDC major at the UK Open, where he won three matches amidst a lot of hype with 90+ averages before reaching 100 in a thrilling 10-8 defeat to Adam Gawlas.
He has made 95 averages look simple during the Modus Super Series – which is the sign of a great player – and he’s clearly got a very high ceiling having gone over 110 on several occasions. He actually holds the venue record of 117.88 which he managed in a final.
He’s won four titles on the Development Tour this season and his seasonal average is 91.63 after 112 matches. If you compare that to the averages on the Pro Tour, he’d be ranked around 64th position.
Therefore if the odds were based purely on realistic chances rather than fear factor, I believe Littler should be priced at a similar level to a player like Keane Barry, who can be backed at anywhere between 150/1 to 250/1 having also averaged around that mark.
If they were to face each other on the Ally Pally stage, I’d expect Keane to win right now due to his experience.
The bookies are scared because he looks like he’s on a trajectory to greatness.
It’s crazy to think we’re even talking about this rather than the logical next step for him which is the PDC World Youth Championship, where he’ll obviously be among the favourites.
Darting dilemma
It's all about what he wants to do. Ability is not a problem and neither is his mental strength during matches.
He may want another year of Super Series, which could make him an awful lot more money, and if he did opt against taking the Tour Card, I’d still advise him to go to Qualifying School as that would make him eligible to participate on the Challenge Tour against many more seasoned players as well as the Development Tour.
That would give him a lot more confidence if he can blitz that tour as well. He might want to do one or two steps up the ladder instead of five in one go.
But look at Gerwyn Price – he bypassed a lot of steps before ending up on the PDC Tour and it worked out just fine for him!
If I managed him I’d be very tempted to tell him to wait another year and instead do the above steps to get on the Challenge Tour in conjunction with what he’s already been doing this season. Because then he’d be very ready for the biggest step of all in 2025 – and he’d still only be 17!
However, obviously no player is immune from injuries, dartitis or a loss of form – just look at my previous example of Dean Reynolds.
So with that in mind, I think the best thing to do is to take the PDC Tour Card and see what happens. However, I’d tell him to treat it as a two-year experiment and not put pressure on himself to win titles and break the world’s top 32 in his first two years.
He has lots to look forward to so just enjoy it – especially his debut PDC World Championship.
If he turns into a main stage start by the time he’s 17 then so be it – but we can’t expect that of him.
In five years’ time he’ll be a very different player than he is now. He’ll either be more seasoned and in the top 16 – or he’ll be a superstar world champion. But let him find that journey for himself.
Premier planning
Given his talents, it would be very hard for anyone associated with him not to be secretly dreaming of the business opportunities for this young man.
The money he earns before he’s 18 should really go in a trust which later gets spent on something secure like a house. It’s a great opportunity but he must be managed and advised correctly, which I have no doubt he will be.
Money and attention is great, but it can cause problems.
The hype around him at Ally Pally would be huge, and you can almost imagine the clamour to put him in the Premier League if he was, for example, to get to the quarters or semi-finals. That would actually be a worry for the PDC given their responsibilities and Luke’s age.
Its’s not an inconceivable scenario. It was the same with Josh Rock and the PDC may have been a little relieved that he didn’t go far enough to be a serious enough contender for a spot.
Destined for greatness?
Luke obviously has the talent to reach the top but he will also have lots of competition from many other products of an exciting youth system.
Thomas Banks also impressed everyone at the UK Open while Sebastian Białecki reached the quarter-finals there back in 2022.
Jarred Cole, who beat Martin Adams at Lakeside back in 2022 is also flying high in the Development Tour and we’ve also got Bradly Roes doing well in the Modus Super Series and winning JDC events.
We’ve got more hot shots emerging than ever before and we’ve not even mentioned Gian van Veen and Nathan Rafferty, who both have major experience on the PDC Tour.
They can all play on the Development Tour alongside the PDC Tour until the age of 25 to get some confidence back if they are struggling for form – and that’s an advantage the older guys obviously don’t have.
Michael van Gerwen first broke through as a teenager in 2007 but it took him until 2012 before he won his maiden PDC major at the World Grand Prix – so if it didn’t happen overnight for a player of his incredible ability, we can’t pile the pressure on these guys.
Given how many of them there are – as well as existing stars in the game that they need to overtake – I think Luke would be hard pressed to win ‘that’ many world titles in the decades to come.
I think we’re in an era where getting to three world titles – like MVG has currently got – will take an Herculean effort, no matter how many years these young talents have ahead of them.
There won’t be one person who dominates like Phil Taylor did…but it’ll be a lot of fun watching them all try.