Sporting Life
Fallon Sherrock (Picture: Lawrence Lustig/PDC)
Fallon Sherrock (Picture: Lawrence Lustig/PDC)

Grand Slam of Darts: Saturday night quarter-final predictions, betting tips, acca, order of play and TV time

By Chris Hammer
Darts
Sat November 20, 2021 · 3y ago

The remaining two quarter-finals of the Cazoo Grand Slam of Darts take place on Saturday night so check out Chris Hammer's match-by-match predictions, best bets and an acca.

Fallon Sherrock returns to the oche as she bids to maintain her incredible fairytale run against Peter Wright while Michael van Gerwen takes on Michael Smith in the opener.

Darts betting tips: Grand Slam of Darts day eight

1pt MVG v Smith to have over 24.5 legs, more than 14.5 180s and a checkout of over 125.5 at 11/10 (Sky Bet)

1pt MVG to win, hit over 6.5 180s and a checkout of more than 116.5 at 6/4 (Sky Bet)

2pts Wright (-5.5 legs) to beat Sherrock at 11/10 (General)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Saturday November 20: Quarter-finals

  • Evening Session (1900 GMT)
  • TV Coverage: Sky Sports
  • Format: Best of 31 legs

SL Acca: Smith (+3.5) and Wright (-5.5) at 3/1 (Sky Bet)

Michael van Gerwen (2/7) v Michael Smith (3/1)

  • Head-to-Head (TV): 32-8 (12-3)
  • 2021 Head-to-Head (TV): 1-0 (0-0)
  • 2021 Titles (TV): 2-2 (1-0)
  • Tournament Average: 102.66 – 95.03
  • 180s: 17 - 14
  • 180’s per leg: 0.47 – 0.36
  • Checkout Percentage: 43.10% - 32.05%
  • 100+ checkouts: 3 - 0
  • 100+ checkouts per leg won: 12% - N/A

Michael van Gerwen has started to look more and more like the player on old on a consistent basis these past couple of months rather than the rollercoaster stands he was producing earlier in the season.

The three-time time, who is bidding to lift this trophy for the first time since 2017, has carried this momentum into the Grand Slam with three averages over 100, including a sensational tournament record of 115.19 against Joe Cullen.

But his display against Gary Anderson was arguably more impressive in the sense he had to show character to edge out his great rival 10-8 but also maintained a high level of quality under pressure to average 100, fire in eight 180s and hit 10 of his 25 double attempts.

His only 'weak' effort was averaging 93 against John Henderson, but he only needed to be in cruise control that night so we can pretty much put a line through it.

Michael Smith is a significant underdog having looked less impressive although he did average around the 100 mark twice during his victories over Raymond van Barneveld and Gary Anderson, while his poor 88 against a troubled Joe Davis was borderline meaningless as he'd already qualified and merely dragged into a low-quality affair.

The same happened against Joe Cullen, who went AWOL on his finishing and Smith unspectacularly did enough to advance 10-5 with an average of 95.

Smith undoubtedly has a higher level of performance in him but just needs a fast start to try and bring out the jittery MVG that we've seen numerous times during the season as a whole, and then it will be closer than many expect.

Smith remains odds-against (11/10) even with a 3.5 leg start on the handicaps but I prefer the same price in Sky Bet's Match Action market which requires over 24.5 legs, more than 14.5 180s and a checkout of over 125.5.

Even if the match was only 25 legs, their combined rates of maximum hitting so far would easily see them hit enough 180s and although their 100+ checkout shooting haven't been prolific, it's still a fairly modest target for any top player to achieve over this many legs.

If you are firmly in the MVG camp then his Player Performance targets of over 6.5 180s and a checkout of more than 116.5 during a victory look very tame if he plays to the levels we've seen, even if it's a wide margin win.

Predicted scoreline: Michael van Gerwen 16-13 Michael Smith

Peter Wright (1/5) v Fallon Sherrock (4/1)

  • Head-to-Head (TV): 0-1 (0-1)
  • 2021 Head-to-Head (TV): 0-1 (0-1)
  • 2021 Titles (TV): 5 (1-0)
  • Tournament Average: 91.33 – 92.82
  • 180s: 17 - 11
  • 180’s per leg: 0.44 – 0.32
  • Checkout Percentage: 28.92% - 42%
  • 100+ checkouts: 0 - 4
  • 100+ checkouts per leg won: 0% - 12%

If you think it's written in the stars that Fallon Sherrock goes all the way and remarkably wins this tournament - which is 'just' 40/1 now - then surely you may as well stick 50p on her being voted Sports Personality of the Year at 250/1 (Betway). This would surely send enough shockwaves through sports fans as a whole to give Emma Raducanu a run for her money.

Anyway, let's not get too ahead of ourselves yet, because a quarter-final with Peter Wright is probably where her incredible history-making fairytale comes to an end.

Despite her increasing acts of heroism on the PDC stage, which has seen her triumph in seven of her 14 matches (which also includes a Premier League draw) and also win 90 of the 182 legs played, this will be considerably the longest format match she's played in and that can't be glossed over.

Even during her Ally Pally set-play victories against Ted Evetts, Mensur Suljovic and Chris Dobey, the most legs she played was 23 (v Evetts) and that exceeds the dramatic 19 she was involved in against Dimitri Van den Bergh during her run to the Nordic Darts Masters final.

Peter Wright is obviously seasoned to playing many matches of this kind of distance over his multi-major winning career - and at ridiculous levels of performance - and you'd think the longer this match progresses the more it'll play into his hands.

Across Sherrock's aforementioned 14 matches, her overall average is around 90 and she's peaked with that brilliant record-breaking 101 against Mike De Decker earlier this week over five fantastic legs of darts. Does she have the mental stamina to increase that level to around 95 at the very least over 25+ legs? Her best chance may therefore be to catch Wright on a very below-par day and run away with it about 16-8 in similar fashion to what she did to Mensur Suljovic. That's far from impossible, but is it as short as 4/1?

I'm still not quite sure how Suljovic managed to be spooked quite so much by Sherrock the other night when she was, by her own admission, not playing to her full potential but it seems as though she's using any lingering stigma about losing to a woman - which ironically she's doing so a great job of obliterating - to her advantage. Gabriel Clemens also looked rattled during the comeback that preceded 'that' 170 checkout.

Wright is perhaps a different animal.

Although he's been a shadow of the player that won the World Matchplay earlier this season, his best average of the week (96.45) did actually come in a 5-1 victory over the 27-year-old, who produced her lowest of 90.55 thanks largely to spurning eight of her nine attempts at doubles.

His tournament average (91.33) is lower than Sherrock's (92.82) but he does at least boss the 180 stats at least.

I think everyone's hearts want to predict a victory for Sherrock but while I have no doubts she'll be a force over this kind of distance in years to come when she gets more exposure to this standard of opposition on the PDC Tour, this is just probably too big a hurdle right now.

Snakebite knows he needs to start underlining his title credentials very soon if he's to find the right kind of form to potentially lift this trophy on Sunday so I'm expecting him to come out, mean business and pull off a fairly one-sided scoreline. You can back him at 11/10 with a -5.5 leg deficit on the handicap and that's hardly disrespectful to Sherrock given that a 16-10 scoreline would be more than respectable for where she is right now.

Predicted scoreline: Peter Wright 16-10 Fallon Sherrock

Read more: Should Fallon Sherrock be in the Premier League?

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