PDC World Championship betting tips: Round three selections based on value model
James Cooper uses his darts model to pinpoint value for the the upcoming third round of the PDC World Darts Championship.
PDC World Championship betting tips
1pt Vincent van der Voort at 11/5
Click on the links to make these selections with Sky Bet
The conclusion of the second round on Wednesday produced arguably the most exciting day’s play so far and one of the biggest shocks in the process, with Michael Smith humbled by Jason Lowe in the final match. Nathan Aspinall rode his luck, surviving four match darts before edging Scott Waites in a classic, while Stephen Bunting banged in a brilliant 11-dart leg in his decider with Andy Boulton.
A short break now ensues before the Third Round commences on Sunday, so this looks an opportune moment to study the 16 ties in the hope of finding some value bets. The model has spat out prices for each tie and the win probability for each player is listed in the table below.
The expected value column is a formula I’ve employed to rank each match from a betting perspective to easily identify where the value lies. The players selected in bold are all of interest given the current best prices on offer are bigger than the model price and the higher the EV, the more appealing the bet. I’ve used an example below to illustrate how the formula works
(Amount won per bet * probability of winning) – (Amount lost per bet * probability of losing)
So in the Danny Noppert match, 23/10 is available, while he has a 35% chance of winning the match with me, which is calculated below.
(2.3*35)-(1*65)= 15.5.
Betting Selections
As you will probably be aware by now, I’m siding with a trio of outsiders in Jermaine Wattimena, Danny Noppert and Vincent van der Voort. Clearly all three should be underdogs against higher-rated opponents but the price disparity is too big in each case, with a profit obtained if any of the trio advances.
The other tie I am keen to play on is the Glen Durrant v Danny Baggish clash. Baggish has arguably been the story of the early rounds, defeating Damon Heta in the hardest first round opponent he could have faced according to my ratings, while a 3-1 win over Adrian Lewis was no mean feat, either.
It’s possible my new rating on Baggish still underestimates him slightly, while Durrant was anything but electric in round two, but even with that factored in, I have Durrant a very strong favourite for this and while some form of exponential decay has to be employed to give more weight to very recent matches, I believe the layers may have gone too far here. Backing a 4/11 shot won’t appeal to most so the handicap option looks the way to play this.
Durrant is 8/11 with 365 to cover the -1.5 cap and 4/6 in several other places, both of which are more-than-acceptable prices given that eventually is 0.64 (4/7) with me.