Our Dave Tickner says West Indies are worth a bet at a big price to get the better of England in the ODI series, which starts today.
Recommended bets: West Indies v England
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England continue their Champions Trophy preparations with a three-match series in the Caribbean. For the West Indies, though, there is no such summer target.
They were outside the top eight in the ODI rankings at the September 2015 cut-off point and so, for the first time, a major global tournament will go on without them.
But that is not to say England can expect to have everything their own way over the next week or so.
They were pretty lucky to emerge victorious from a warm-up game against a pretty weak President’s XI, scraping home by two wickets chasing a mid-range total only thanks to a composed unbeaten 47 from Chris Woakes.
It was a game that showed that, for all the huge strides England have made in the last two years, some flaws remain.
They clearly should not abandon the new-found aggression that has transformed their one-day displays, but the suspicion remains that they can be guilty of lacking the guile to adapt to the sort of total or conditions that Jonathan Trott would’ve chased down in his sleep.
The pitch for that warm-up game was slow and low, and offered more and more turn as the game wore on. This is the new norm for pitches in the Caribbean, and England can expect to come up against similar conditions in the three ODIs in Antigua (the first two) and Barbados.
England have doubts at the top of the order, where Alex Hales is with the squad but still recovering from injury, while Sam Billings failed to make a strong case in the warm-up games. Jonny Bairstow making 86 at the top of the order in the second warm-up game in what is for him an unfamiliar role has arguably only confused things further.
And the bowling remains a serious issue. Jake Ball, who has been consistently impressive in a fledgling white-ball international career, pulled up in that second game – England have called up Surrey’s Tom Curran as cover – and David Willey is out of the series after surgery on his shoulder.
West Indies have selection issues of their own. With the board and players in a seemingly perpetual state of conflict, new head coach Jimmy Adams has been left able to select only from those players who have made themselves available for West Indies domestic cricket, meaning a host of star names are unavailable.
But in these conditions they are surely too big at 4/1 (Stan James) to win a series in conditions that should help spike England’s most dangerous guns with both bat and ball.
West Indies reached the final of a home Tri-Series against the might of Australia and South Africa last year – albeit with the considerable assistance of a now unavailable Sunil Narine – and won three of their six group games before coming up short against the Aussies in the final.
At the very least they should certainly be more competitive than a dismissive price suggests. England remain worthy favourites, but if you are thinking of backing the tourists then taking the 2-1 correct score at odds around 7/5 has to be more sensible than lumping on outright prices as short as 1/6.
It also looks worth a small play on Moeen Ali to be England’s top series wicket-taker at 7/1 (Ladbrokes). Neither he nor Adil Rashid had a great time in the 50-over series in India, but Moeen at least kept his place in the side and then comprehensively outbowled his spin partner in the T20 matches.
Eoin Morgan appears to place more faith in his off-spinner than his leg-spinner and, although Rashid remains a real wicket-taking threat, his tendency to go the journey when he gets it wrong could count against him in conditions where par is likely to be nearer 250 than 300.
Moeen is more than twice the price of Rashid, and that just looks wrong.
Similarly, the second spinner looks overpriced in the West Indies bowling market, where off-spinner Ashley Nurse is 5/1 (Ladbrokes) to leggie Devendra Bishoo’s 7/2.
Bishoo has experience on his side, but went more than five years without an ODI cap before returning to the side against Zimbabwe in November.
That came in a Tri-Series also featuring Sri Lanka, and Nurse took eight wickets in four games during that campaign.
Nurse was also comfortably the leading wicket-taker in the WICB Regional Super50 tournament last month, claiming an eye-catching 26 victims – seven more than any other bowler – in 10 games as Barbados took the title.
In the top England batsman market, Joe Root and Jason Roy are 5/2 joint favourites and in the conditions I’d far rather be with Root at that price. Bairstow may prove a spot of value at 10/1 after staking an unlikely claim for the opener's spot, but it would perhaps make more sense to back him at 7/1 in the first ODI so as to at least get stakes returned if he’s not selected.
The West Indies batting market looks wide open, with the old-school credentials of Kraigg Brathwaite perhaps worth a second look. He was a consistent if slow runscorer in the recent domestic 50-over competition and has more international pedigree than most of his colleagues. But his modest overall List A record means it’s a bet I’ll leave alone.
Where to watch on TV: Sky Sports
Posted at 1335 GMT on 01/03/17.