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1.5pts Sydney Thunder to win the Big Bash at 10/1

1.5pts Sydney Thunder to reach the Big Bash final at 5/1

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Sydney Sixers begin their Big Bash title defence by taking on Hobart Hurricanes in the season opener on Thursday.

The Sixers displayed all of their street-fighting qualities and cricket nous when scrapping their way to glory 12 months ago and with much of the same personnel in their ranks this time around, along with the re-signing of Mitchell Starc and capture of serial T20 winner Dan Christian, it's hard to discount their claims of going back-to-back.

While the Sixers continue to defy the doubters, I do have reservations about their batting and with teams allowed to field three overseas players for the first time this year, there is the possibility that they will find themselves being outgunned more often than in the past.

At 9/2, they aren't for me and I prefer the chances of neighbours Sydney Thunder.

The Thunder were brilliant when crowned Big Bash champions in 2016 - inspired by the evergreen Mike Hussey and runs of Usman Khawaja - and despite struggling to immediately find the right path in the subsequent rebuilding period, they won plenty of admirers with their strong finish to last season's competition before just missing out on a place in the final when losing to Melbourne Stars in the Challenger.

Englishman Alex Hales will again return following a fruitful last campaign that yielded 576 runs and he will help form a fearsome batting line-up that features Khawaja, Callum Ferguson and Alex Ross.

All four pulled their weight last term and can be expected to do so again, with Hales and Khawaja, in particular, having the extra motivation of trying to force their way back into international reckoning having both fallen out of favour in the last year or so.

With Sam Billings also set to join up with the Thunder when international commitments allow, the batting has a really powerful look to it and I'm looking forward to seeing how Ferguson shuffles his pack this season with a strong bowling hand to play with, too.

30 Big Bash wickets for Daniel Sams in 2019/2020 earned him an IPL deal and fresh from that stint in Dubai, he should return to Australia with his skill-set broadened. He will be joined by new recruits Ben Cutting and Adam Milne in an exciting pace attack.

There is no doubt that Chris Morris will leave a hole to fill in that department, but Cutting is a wily operator who can hit a long ball with the bat, too, while Milne and Chris Tremain will ensure their is no shortage of pace in the Thunder ranks. Throw spinners Chris Green and Arjun Nair into the mix and Ferguson will be confident he has horses for most courses in the bowling department.

I really like how the Thunder have rebuilt since 2016, making gradual, but consistent, strides forward in the last few seasons while many of the younger members of the squad - such as Green and Tremain - have gained valuable experience and developed into more rounded T20 performers.

The signings of Cutting and Milne bring even more experience to the camp and I'm hopeful that everything is falling into place for a side that might just be peaking at the right time.

A word, too, on Ferguson the batsman: having been a model of consistency in this form of the game over the last few years, the South Australian called time on a distinguished First Class career just a few weeks ago to concentrate on white-ball cricket - signing off with a typically classy 97 in his final innings - in a move that should help take his batting to the next level.

Ferguson has impressed since taking over captaincy of the Thunder - helping reshape the team post Hussey and Shane Watson - and with his strongest squad yet, he has every right to believe his side can take the next step needed to go all the way.

At 10/1, the Thunder look the wrong price and get my vote in what is a typically competitive renewal of the Big Bash, while I can't resist topping up with the 5/1 on offer for them to reach the final.

A good friend of mine recently reminded me of the many good turns Perth Scorchers have done us in the Big Bash over the years and following a lean spell in the competition more recently, the three-time winners might also be primed for another fruitful campaign.

Key to the Scorchers' success over the years has been their seemingly endless stream of high-quality fast bowlers and the likes of Jhye Richardson, Andrew Tye and Jason Behrendorff should continue to pack a punch if able to avoid the injuries that have blighted this squad over the years.

With Ashton Agar and Fawad Ahmed forming a potent spin combination, the bowling attack looks well stocked and is likely to prove just as hard to chase against as was the case during the Scorchers' glory years.

What has held them back more recently has been the lack of firepower in the batting, especially since Shaun Marsh moved to the Melbourne Renegades, but the signings of Jason Roy and Joe Clarke really ought to remedy that and there is plenty to like about their chances.

Melbourne Stars have been beaten finals in the last two years and while Glenn Maxwell has moulded a much more consistent outfit since the likes of Kevin Pietersen have moved on, they were heavily reliant on Marcus Stoinis' runs last term.

Assuming he recovers from the niggle he picked up when on international duty for Australia recently, he should continue to dominate at the top of the order but Stoinis aside, the batting still has the potential to be flaky and that was in evidence in the last two finals.

West Indian Nicholas Pooran is an exciting signing but the departures of Haris Rauf and Daniel Worrall leave the bowling shorn of two of its biggest weapons and while Billy Stanlake's arrival brings pace to the Stars, his performances for Adelaide Strikers last season were so poor that he couldn't hold his place in their starting XI.

As for the Strikers themselves, a bowling attack led by brilliant wrist spinner Rashid Khan and wily veteran Peter Siddle will continue to prove a tough nut to crack, particularly following the recent acquisitions of Englishman Danny Briggs and the aforementioned Worrall.

Their attack looks to have most angles covered, for all it might just lack some genuine pace, but the batting will need to improve a little if, as expected, captain Travis Head misses a good chunk of the competition due to international commitments. As such, the recruitment of Matt Renshaw looks a sensible move and he is a middle-order player who should suit the Strikers style of cricket.

Phil Salt - another who head coach Jason Gillespie has great faith in - will need to turn many of his promising starts into more substantial scores while the issue of where to bat Alex Carey in the order will require strong and direct leadership. Surely batting at the top in this form of the game suits Carey best and this terrific player has the ability to ignite the Strikers batting if returned to that position.

With so many bases covered, it's hard to see anything other than another bold showing from the Strikers but the 2017/2018 winners have been well found in the outright market at 11/2 and with Head expected to miss games, and a few niggling doubts surrounding their batting order, I'm happy to let them pass.

So, too, Hobart Hurricanes, who have brought in Dawid Malan, Peter Handscomb and Colin Ingram to beef up a batting line-up that is already well served.

More in need of attention is the bowling and while the Hurricanes have the potential to post some sizeable scores, how they fit a plethora of top-order batsmen into their top four, whilst keeping everyone happy, remains to be seen.

Balance and lack of quality in their attack could dog the Hurricanes this season while I don't think either of Brisbane Heat or Melbourne Renegades should be shorter in the betting than the Thunder.

The Heat will always be dangerous with Chris Lynn as captain and star batsman - and I do expect him to score heavily in the next few weeks as tries to force his way back into Australia's white-ball plans - but his side has become so hard to catch right.

In the last three seasons, the Heat have been a pillar of mediocrity and while the signing of Tom Cooper could prove a shrewd one, and Mitch Swepson is a much-improved leg spinner who appears to be going places, they could be hurt by the loss of Renshaw who has often marshalled the fragile middle order with a cool head and surprising power.

Expect a bit of everything from the Heat this term; the good, bad and the ugly, but I can't see them competing for any silverware and the same remark applies to the Renegades who endured a dire campaign last season having won a dramatic final only a year earlier.

Captain Aaron Finch and the classy Marsh ensure the batting has quality, but they will be very reliant on that pair for runs while South African Imran Tahir and Cameron Boyce will need to click quickly in a spin partnership that might need to carry the bowling attack.

The Renegades aren't passed over as lightly as the Heat, but they don't tick anywhere near the same number of boxes as Sydney Thunder - nor do anyone else - and I'm happy to fly solo with this improving, well-rounded outfit.

Posted at 2000 GMT on 06/12/20

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