After 4/1 and 4/5 winners on Wednesday, Andy Schooler returns to preview Thursday’s second-round matches at the Australian Open.
Tennis betting tips: Australian Open matches
1.5pts Lorenzo Musetti to beat Denis Shapovalov at evens (General)
1pt Daniel Altmaier to beat Gael Monfils at 9/2 (BoyleSports)
Denis Shapovalov v Lorenzo Musetti
For me, Musetti should be the favourite here but he isn’t and that immediately heightens the betting senses.
The former junior champion at Melbourne Park beat Matteo Arnaldi in four sets in round one and played pretty well in the bit I saw.
I’ve felt he’s been improving on hardcourts for a while now – he was a finalist in Chengdu and a semi-finalist in Vienna in the second half of last season.
Shapovalov is playing better than he once was, too, but I don’t see him returning to the levels of his past – the Canadian cracked the top 10 in 2020 – or even those currently being set by Musetti, the world number 15.
He beat Roberto Bautista Agut, another fading force, in round one but went into that boasting an excellent head-to-head record.
Here, Shapovalov arrives having lost his only meeting with the 16th seed, albeit it was a close-fought match on the hardcourts of Indian Wells last season.
Maybe the slicker conditions here will help him but I’d expect Musetti to prey on his second serve, a shot which continues to produce double faults aplenty – there were 15 against Bautista Agut.
Notably, Musetti improved significantly against left-handers in 2024, going 4-2 – as well as that victory over Shapovalov, Ben Shelton was among his victims.
Back him here at even money.
Daniel Altmaier v Gael Monfils
I just can’t have Altmaier here at 9/2.
He’s no world-beater but should be able to keep this competitive at least.
The big issue for Monfils is how his body reacts to Tuesday’s five-set battle with Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, a contest which lasted almost four hours.
He’s 38 now and also has a full week of tennis from Auckland in his legs after he won the warm-up event there on Saturday.
I’ve written before about how Monfils often plays his best tennis in the early weeks of the season but that’s a tough schedule for someone who has struggled to stay fit over the years.
Even the player himself admitted after hie first-round victory: “Tomorrow morning I will be more 48 than 38." I suspect he was only half joking.
Key to recent success has been how well he’s served so he may be OK if he can rely on that shot but Altmaier got stuck into his second serve in their only previous meeting, winning 61% of points on it. That contest, won by Monfils, came indoors in Vienna in 2023.
I’d expect the German to play many more rallies with the Frenchman than the serve-based Mpetshi Perricard did and there has to be a chance he ‘takes his legs away’.
Altmaier served well himself in round one, winning 88% of his first-serve points against Francisco Comesana, and last season he beat Alex Zverev on a hardcourt.
All things considered, I just think he’s worth a punt at the price to land the upset.
Preview posted 1200 GMT on 15/01/25
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