Kagiso Rabada
Kagiso Rabada

Cricket betting tips: Close Test series in store as South Africa and Australia renew rivalry


Cricket expert Richard Mann has picked out his best bets ahead of the forthcoming Test series between South Africa and Australia.

Recommended bets: South Africa v Australia Test match series

2pts Kagiso Rabada Top South Africa Series Wicket Taker at 5/2

2pts Hashim Amla to be Top South Africa Series Runscorer at 3/1

2pts Shaun Marsh to be Top Australia Series Runscorer at 13/2

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South Africa and Australia renew their fierce rivalry when facing off in a four-match Test series beginning in Durban on Thursday.

Previous encounters between the sides have produced some of the most exciting Test match cricket of recent times, with very little separating the two outfits, and the decision to extend this series to four Tests is entirely justified.

The last meeting between the two saw South Africa run out 2-1 winners on their 2016 tour Down Under, some brilliant seam bowling winning them the first two Tests before Australia bounced back with victory in Adelaide.

Somewhat against the grain in the current international cricket climate, both sides have tended to prosper away from home in clashes between the two and Michael Clarke's Ashes-winning class of 2013/2014 secured a memorable 2-1 series success in Cape Town in that same season.

The scores were all square heading into the decider and despite dominating most of the Test, Australia seemed sure to be denied victory by dogged resistance from the South African lower order.

With the overs ticking down and gloom beginning to set over Table Mountain, Ryan Harris hobbled off the physio table - defying exhaustion and a knee injury that would later require major surgery - to bowl the tourists to victory in the dying moments of the game.

It was a remarkable end to a pulsating series, one which highlighted all that is good about the longer form of the game, and with the sides again looking evenly matched, we could be in for another cracker.

Steve Smith appears to have moulded a new, more patient Australia - a far cry from the careless one we saw early in his captaincy - and their recent Ashes triumph over England was defined by patient batting from himself and Shaun Marsh, supplementing a potent and well balanced bowing attack.

They are a good side, no doubt, but the beauty of cricket in South Africa is that the pitches generally offer something for quality pace bowing and the home side have that in spades.

In Vernon Philander, Kagiso Rabada, Lungi Ngidi and Morne Morkel, the hosts boast an intimidating pace battery that is well backed up by spinner Keshav Maharaj.

Morkel, who will retire from international cricket at the conclusion of this tour, is in the form of his life at present while Philander remains a potent new-ball threat and Rabada continues to get better and better.

Pace, bounce, and with an ability to move the ball laterally, Rabada is a fine young quick bowler who seems destined for greatness and enjoyed a fruitful series in the recent home defeat of India, collecting 15 wickets at 20.26.

While he faces strong competition from a strong and varied home bowing attack, he remains Faf de Plessis' go-to man and his ability to roll over the opposition tail makes him very appealing in the Top Team Series Bowler market at 5/2.

With the hosts again expected to go with five bowlers, the suspicion remains that their batting line-up could be vulnerable if losing early casualties to the new ball.

As ever, this leaves the experienced Hashim Amla with huge responsibility on his shoulders, something he appears to relish.

Despite encountering arduous conditions in the recent India series, like all champions, Amla still managed to find a way and his second innings 71 against India in Port Elizabeth was a masterclass in skill and defiance.

With 8,786 Test runs to his name and 28 hundreds, he is firmly established as one of the greats of the modern era and his 196 against Australia at Perth in 2012 saw him counter the likes of Mitchell Johnson and Mitchell Starc with staggering ease.

AB de Villiers' recent return to Test match cricket is a huge boost for the home side and he seems sure to meet the Australians with a level of skill and aggression that sets him apart from many other batsmen in the world.

De Villiers is another who has enjoyed plenty of success against Australia over the years but his recent injury record leaves a slight cloud over him and Amla could be the one in Top Team Series Batsman market at 3/1.  

While we are backing Amla to prosper over the next few weeks, this series will prove a severe challenge for the South African batting line-up with rookie opener Aiden Markram and Dean Elgar sure to be given a torrid time by the likes of Starc, Josh Hazlewood and Pat Cummins.

Starc's pace and Hazlewood's guile makes for a daunting new-ball pairing but it was possibly Cummins who impressed most in the recent Ashes.

With his injury problems seemingly behind him, Cummins was a constant thorn in England's side, maintaining high speeds and unwavering accuracy throughout and finishing the series as the leading wicket taker on either side.

It is worth remembering that it was a tour of South Africa that first shot Cummins to prominence, a fresh-faced 18-year-old debutant who terrorised the great Jacques Kallis in a match-winning spell of second-innings bowling that earnt him six wickets, the Man of the Match award and proved the difference between the two sides as Australia edged home by two wickets. For good measure, Cummins also hit the winnings runs.  

He is fancied to enjoy another successful tour and, with spinner Nathan Lyon proving more than capable of tying down an end while the Australian quicks rotate from the other, there might not be much respite for the hosts' batting line-up.

Australia's own order won't find things any easier, though, with David Warner's old rivalry with Morkel sure to prove enthralling viewing once again and Cameron Bancroft under pressure following a lean end to the Ashes.

Number three Usman Khawaja is a classy operator and a diet of mainly pace bowling will suit him fine, his troubles against right arm off-spin as well documented as his strength against the short ball.

He has had plenty of success against South Africa, too, though odds of 4/1 about him finishing the series as Australia's leading runscorer looks about right, as does 7/4 about the captain, Smith, who will be severely tested against the moving ball in a way that England weren't able to in the Ashes.

When England could get the ball moving laterally in that series, namely in Adelaide, Smith wasn't quite as dominant and, at 13/2, Shaun Marsh is the one who appeals most in that market.

A class act who was tipped for greatness from an early age, he has been held back by injuries but amassed 445 runs at an average of 74.16 against England and made a brilliant century at Centurion on his last visit to these shores.

With the new ball sure to prove the hardest time to bat, he might be well placed coming in at number five and 13/2 and certainly makes appeal.

South Africa v Australia: Stat attack

Australian opener David Warner made three hundreds when averaging 90.50 in the 2014 series between these two sides in South Africa. Warner is 3/1 to finish this series as Top Australian Series Runscorer.

South Africa captain Faf Du Plessis averages a very healthy 45.10 in Test matches but that average rises to 59.41 when playing Australia. Du Plessis is 11/2 to be South Africa's Top Series Runscorer.

Nathan Lyon has enjoyed a brilliant time in the few years, developing into one of the leading spinners in world cricket. Lyon's efforts since the beginning of 2017 have seen him claim 67 wickets at an average of 24.23 and he can be backed at 9/2 to finish as Australia's Top Series Wicket Taker.

Vernon Philander is a wonderful new-ball bowler but his record in South Africa is particularly impressive, with his 113 wickets coming at an impressive average of 18.48. Philander is 5/2 in the Top South Africa Wicket Taker market.

In the last six Tests between these two sides, there have been no drawn matches.

Posted at 1705 GMT on 27/02/18.

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