Dave Tickner makes South Africa his pick for the one-day series against England and also has a 100/1 top bowler selection.
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England and South Africa warm up for the ICC Champions Trophy with a three-match ODI series beginning at Headingley on Wednesday.
It should be a fascinating series between two of the game’s in-form white-ball sides, but how much it will tell us about the tournament ahead is unclear.
But we need not concern ourselves too much right now with South Africa’s perennial major tournament chokes. The fact is, in bilateral series there is nobody to touch them. They’re ranked number one in the world for a reason. They’ve won their last six ODI series (as well as a one-off game against Ireland) and 11 of their last 13.
Their last two series have been against one-day heavyweights India and New Zealand, and the Proteas have won both. At home they’ve destroyed both Australia and Sri Lanka 5-0 recently, and edged a highly entertaining five-match series against England 3-2.
England’s record is also worthy of enormous respect – they’ve won five series out of six since that South Africa reverse, winning 15 games and losing just four.
And they are formidably strong at home, winning nine and losing just one of their last 10 completed ODIs since the start of last year.
Eoin Morgan’s England are a fearless batting side capable of chasing down any score, and in their own conditions the concerns over a rather more fragile bowling line-up are reduced. They have already started their season with a couple of straightforward victories over Ireland at Bristol and Lord’s earlier this month.
But South Africa represent a huge step up from those games, and from last summer’s opponents Sri Lanka and Pakistan – especially in English conditions.
England’s form probably makes them just about worthy favourites, but the fact South Africa have won 3-2 in both India and New Zealand catches the eye.
Clearly by far the likeliest outcomes in a three-match series between two good sides like these are the respective 2-1 scorelines. I wouldn’t put you off backing either option, but at a widely available 2/1 against 13/8 it’s the Proteas who just about represent the value call.
In the series sub-markets, Quinton De Kock is the man to back in the top South Africa batsman market. The prolific keeper-batsman can be a bit feast or famine – a century and a duck in two warm-up matches rather sums him up – but it’s generally been more of the former than the latter recently.
He was the top South Africa bat when these sides met in 2015/16 and has never been out of the top three scorers in the last five series. That highlights that while he may be inconsistent from game to game, when he gets in he goes on to big scores.
All five of those series, and this shorter event should suit the one-off big-scorer rather than a more consistent runscorer like a Hashim Amla or Faf du Plessis.
There are signs as well that this outrageously talented 24-year-old is starting to add a bit of consistency to his game, with four half-centuries and a ton in his last seven ODI innings. There’s a nought and a six in there as well, but we know the risks here. At the 3/1 offered by Betfred and Ladbrokes he’s worth the plunge.
Finally, I can’t resist some small change on Joe Root to be England’s top wicket-taker in the series at 100/1 with the same two firms. It’s almost certainly a value loser, but it’s definitely the wrong price.
England opted for just one frontline spinner in Adil Rashid for both games against Ireland, with Root performing admirably as the sixth bowler with his part-time off-spin.
Indeed, only Rashid bowled more than Root’s 15 overs across the two games, and Root picked up five wickets – again, behind only Rashid who snagged six in 18 overs.
Obviously this is a different calibre of opposition, but with all due respect it seems unlikely England devised this new strategy specifically to counter the threat posed by Ireland. It’s surely far more likely that one spinner plus Root is part of a bigger plan for this series and the Champions Trophy that follows, although it should be noted that England have other ways to balance their side now that Ben Stokes and Chris Woakes are back from the IPL.
But if Root is picked as the second spinner, and given the obvious prospect of the seam-bowling options in the squad being rotated in and out of the side, then the three-figure quote is at least five times too big. The 33/1 available for Root to be top England bowler in Wednesday’s game at his home ground is also well worth a look.
Where to watch on TV: Sky Sports
Posted at 1905 BST on 22/05/17.