Richard Mann is backing Ben Stokes when England begin their four-match Test series against India on Friday - read his series betting preview here.
Cricket betting tips: India v England
2pts Ben Stokes top England series batsman at 5/1
2pts Jack Leach top England series bowler at 2/1
1pt Rohit Sharma top India series batsman at 11/2
Test cricket will return to terrestrial television on Friday when India and England begin their four-match Test series in Chennai, live on Channel 4.
Such news is most welcome given it appeared only a few days ago that this marquee series might not be available to viewers in the UK, something English cricket could ill afford on the back of a particularly challenging 12 months and with ongoing concerns about the sport’s participation and engagement.
On the field, England face just about the toughest test in cricket: taking on a fine India outfit that come into this series on the back of a remarkable victory in Australia, their second consecutive series success Down Under, and with home advantage now on their side.
With captain Virat Kohli and Ishant Sharma back for this series, as well as the return to full fitness of Jasprit Bumrah and Ravichandran Ashwin, the hosts promise to be incredibly tough to beat, in much the same way they were when winning 4-0 when these two sides met in this country back in 2016.
India are only 3/1 to win 4-0 this time around, and such quotes might just underestimate the progress Joe Root’s side have made in the last 12 months, with their recent 2-0 victory in Sri Lanka coming against moderate opposition, but highly commendable nonetheless.
Root and Stokes stand in India's way
Key to that victory was the resurgence of Root who led the way by plundering 426 runs at an average of 106.50 in only two matches, while Jos Buttler and Jonny Bairstow enjoyed solid series’ with the bat, similarly Dom Bess, Jack Leach and James Anderson with the ball.
A major concern for England is that neither Buttler nor Bairstow will be available for the duration of this series, with the former heading home after the first Test, meaning the batting will be even more dependent on Root’s blade and the return of Ben Stokes.
With Ollie Pope back in the selection mix following shoulder surgery, England will have to hope that trio can score enough runs to ensure they are competitive, but in Sri Lanka the top order looked short on ideas or the requisite skill needed to succeed against high-class spin in the subcontinent and I’ll be surprised if Root and Stokes don’t finish the series as England’s two leading runscorers.
The case for Root is rock-solid: England’s premier batsman comes into this series full of runs and confidence, has plenty of experience of batting in India having averaged close to 50 in that aforementioned 2016 series, and should continue to prosper if continuing to execute his trusted game-plan against spin.
Root’s ability to go deep into his crease to play the spinning ball at the end of its trajectory, or conversely, use his quick feet to advance down the pitch and meet the ball on the full, tied Sri Lanka’s spinners in knots only last month, as did his excellent use of the sweep shot.
Root seems sure to go well again and potentially finish the series as England’s leading runscorer once more, but he is odds-on in a few places now and I’m inclined to side with the returning STOKES instead.
Superstar Stokes the value play
While the case to be made for Root is a robust one, Stokes has plenty of upside himself and at the start of what promises to be a huge 12 months for England and their talisman, 5/1 about the Durham all-rounder looks fair enough.
Redemption is a narrative us sports journalists love to pedal, but Stokes had his in 2019 when driving England to Cricket World Cup glory at Lord’s before his Ashes spectacular at Headingley later that summer.
Redemption story complete then? Not quite. When Stokes got himself involved in an altercation outside a Bristol nightclub in September 2017, his actions had far-reaching ramifications for the England cricket team, including his absence from the Ashes tour only a few months later. England would go on to lose that series 4-0.
Since then, Stokes has matured into a consistent match-winner for his country with his batting evolving all the time and his rock-solid technique continuing to stand up to whatever is thrown at it.
Stokes handled the challenges posed by Indian conditions when making 345 runs at 38.33 in the 2016 series and he topped England’s runs list in the 2019 Ashes and then again against the West Indies last summer when amassing 363 runs at 90.75.
As he approaches his 30th birthday, all the signs are that Stokes the batsman is approaching the peak of his powers as he embarks on a huge 12 months that he will hope will end in Ashes victory and with the final chapter of his redemption story complete.
With his motivation to begin 2021 on the right footing sure to be great, I’m confident he can better his exploits of 2016 and want him in my book.
The top England series batsman market really does have all the hallmarks of a match bet if Pope isn’t passed fit for the first Test. Pope is a terrific young player who I have a huge amount of time for and the way he played Yasir Shah last summer tells me he has the game and temperament to do well on these shores.
However, this will be his first Test series in India and with a few doubts surrounding his fitness, too, the 5/1 about Stokes makes more appeal than the 8/1 Pope can be backed at.
Rohit worth the risk
Stokes is just about my best bet of the series but I can’t resist adding ROHIT SHARMA to my staking plan in the top India series batsman market.
A rich talent, Rohit has taken an age to dominate Test cricket in anything like the same way he has the limited-overs formats, but he might just be getting there now.
Just as was the case in white-ball cricket, the move to the top of the order has proved the making of Rohit and he averaged a staggering 92.66 in 2019 following a brilliant home series against South Africa in which he comfortably outscored the likes of Kohli and Cheteshwar Pujara.
Injury kept him out of the first two Tests of the recent series victory in Australia but he looked in good touch when he returned, scores of 26, 52, 44 and 7 suggesting he isn’t far away from getting back to his very best.
As is the case for any opening batsman, England’s skilful new-ball attack could cause him problems early on, particularly when the pink-ball Test comes around, but these conditions will be nothing like Lord’s in early April and as soon as any initial movement disappears, Rohit could be primed to cash in.
In all forms of the game, Rohit has proved time and time again that he can go very big once set and there might be an angle in opposing Kohli in this market at such prohibitive odds. It must be remembered that Kohli has been short of game time in recent weeks following the birth of his first child, and also that he was similarly slow to get up and running in last season’s IPL following another layoff.
At 11/2, Rohit looks worth a small interest, for all Pujara and Rishabh Pant ensure this is a high-class Indian top-six, and as such, an ultra-competitive market.
Pant did these pages a huge favour when prevailing in this market in that recent Australia series, returning a 20/1 winner, but number six in the India batting order might just be too low for him to be able to make a significant impact this time around.
England's pacers can test Pujara
That isn’t the case in regards to Pujara, but I remain convinced that he is slightly vulnerable to the short ball and while subcontinent pitches wouldn’t naturally be expected to suit that mode of attack, ducking the short stuff on slow, low pitches can be very tricky.
In a refreshed Jofra Archer, England have genuine pace in their attack and his bouncer - delivered from such a straight delivery point - could be a nightmare to face for someone like Pujara who prefers to wear a few blows rather than take on the challenge with the hook or pull shot.
I suspect he might have to wear plenty from Archer in this series and at the prices, I’ll happily take Rohit and his strong all-round game to prosper.
The India top series bowler market is dominated by Ashwin and rightly so. Still, I’m in no rush to back him at odds-on given he struggled with his back in Australia and that there are juicier prices on offer elsewhere.
Leach the solid play in top bowler market
Instead, Somerset twirler LEACH looks a much more attractive bet in the top England series bowler market.
Despite having missed so much cricket over the last 12 months, Leach left Sri Lanka with his reputation just about enhanced having ended the series strongly to finish with 10 wickets.
Expect him to improve for that run and with Moeen Ali reportedly challenging fellow off spinner Bess for a place in England's starting XI, Leach might be the only one of England’s bowlers pencilled in to play all four matches of the series.
As a left-arm off spinner, his ability to challenge the outside edge of India’s pack of right-handers will be vital and gives him another advantage over market rivals Ali and Bess.
The potential fly in the ointment is veteran seamer Anderson who continues to defy the doubters and bowled with typical guile and skill to record figures of 6-46 in Galle recently.
Despite the misconception that Anderson struggles in conditions that don’t play to the strengths of an English seam and swing bowler, the Lancashire native has now taken 66 wickets in Asia at just under 30 – a superior record to many of his contemporaries from all around the world.
Anderson was quite outstanding when England claimed a landmark series victory on these shores in 2012/2013 and I still expect him to find a way whatever conditions he is faced with.
All that said, England appear determined to use the rest and rotate policy from now until the Ashes, particularly with their priceless pair, Anderson and Stuart Broad, and two or three Tests might be their limit in this series.
That would certainly suit Leach backers and given the amount of overs Root is sure to demand of him, he rates the solid, if not overly sexy, play at 2/1.
Posted at 1845 GMT on 02/02/21
Responsible gambling
We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.
Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.