Professional gambler Paul Krishnamurty provides his in-play cricket betting masterclass ahead of the Ashes, which always sees huge activity on the exchanges.
HOW TO BET LIVE IN-PLAY ON CRICKET
The growth of live, in-play betting has completely transformed our industry this century. Having primarily made a living from live sports trading throughout this transformative era, I can strongly recommend cricket as offering some of the very best opportunities.
Why? Well first, consider the difficulty of pre-match betting. We can only speculate what the pitch or overhead conditions will be like, let alone who will win the toss. As any cricket aficionado will testify, these factors have a profound impact on everything from the result to how many runs will be scored.
Yet from the moment we know the toss and pitch report, we are armed with valuable insights, and can continue to learn as the match progresses. Are conditions good for bowlers or batters? High or low scores? Which players, and which team, are better equipped to exploit the conditions? Which way will the odds move? Get the final, 50/50 question right, and there are profits to be made from live trading.
Let's take a look at some in-play markets.
Match odds
Naturally, by far the most popular and liquid market involves the match result. This offers the perfect example of the advantages of in-play betting. Pre-match, any edge over the bookmakers will be marginal at best, because all relevant data is public and factored into the odds.
However once play begins, these odds are guaranteed to fluctuate (often wildly) and those fluctuations depend on a series of variables about which we can make informed predictions. Pitch, or overhead, conditions change. The most effective bowlers or batsmen will perform only at specific points of an innings.
The fundamental nature of cricket implies momentum can shift dramatically, and quickly. Huge turnarounds are frequent in limited overs cricket. See for instance Rinku Singh hitting sixes off the last five balls to enable a huge upset for Kolkata Knight Riders against Gujurat Titans in the recent IPL. That was a 500/1 chance in running. Every T20 franchise involves the odd similar turnaround. Find it, and the profits could pay for similar longshot bets throughout the whole tournament.
But I would argue Test cricket is a superior medium for match betting. Here it is common for all three results to trade as favourite, or one option to collapse from an enormous price, at some point during the match.
Again, the reasons are fundamental. Over five days and four innings, dynamics are bound to change. Pitches deteriorate or improve. The ball will swing during specific periods. The weather may change. A team may have struggled during their first innings, but be transformed in their second.
The forthcoming Ashes series looks perfect for trading the match odds, because the teams are very closely matched and there is no danger of either side losing interest given the pride at stake. Furthermore, English Test pitches have tended to improve of late as matches wear on, and English weather is always unpredictable.
Innings Runs
There are always multiple in-play lines on the total runs in an innings, session or particular fixed point, such as after 30 overs. Let's focus on the first, as the most popular.
On the Betfair exchange and among most sportsbooks, the options are Under/Over. For example, if the opening quote for 400 runs is even money under or over, 300 will be around 2/7 over, 7/2 under.
With each run scored, these odds/lines move up. When a wicket falls, they drop sharply. So were you to back overs, and a partnership develops, you will be able to cash out for a profit, or back unders on a higher line - thus potentially landing both bets if the end result lands in the middle of these two lines.
EXAMPLE
- Back over 400, 5pts @ Evens
- Back Under 450, 5pts @ Evens
- Any result between 400-449 = 10 units profit
- Any other result = Level
Two bits of advice. One, always keep extreme unders onside. If two players are putting together a big partnership, making batting look easy, the market tends to overreact. It doesn't follow that batting will remain easy, or that new batsmen won't struggle once this partnership is over. Always remember that wickets tend to fall in batches. 200-3 will often become 250-8. It is very common for in-running unders bets to land at odds in excess of 10/1.
Second, study the form at each ground. How many times was a particular line passed, and likewise for total fours or sixes? At which stage of the innings do runs tend to be scored (especially relevant in T20)? We discuss this every week on Cricket…Only Bettor and frequently find that the in-play odds do not even closely reflect the stats.
Also, regarding the Ashes, England's new 'Bazball' style has an important impact. Because they score so quickly, extreme overs totals have been landing regularly at huge odds. On the flipside, their ultra-attacking mentality will inevitably result in batting collapses. It therefore makes sense to back extreme outcomes when they bat, at big odds. Avoid playing the even money 'par' line, as it is unlikely to reflect the median.
Other In-play markets
Of course, the popular pre-match markets also turn live in-play such as Top Team Batsman or Bowler. Again, monitoring and pre-empting any change in conditions is invaluable. Which players are likely to bowl during the next hour? Will batting get easier for the middle order, improving their chances of catching up with higher order batsmen?
Finally, a market where knowledge is king. Method of Dismissal involves predicting how the next batsman will be out. The odds will be fairly similar, regardless of who is bowling or batting. Yet a study of each player’s past performances, including against one another, will show clear trends. A particular spinner may have a long history of getting a particular batsman, or left-handers, out lbw. That may increase or decrease depending on the venue.
Use the available public data to do this level of research, and you will gain an edge that bookmakers will struggle to match.
- Paul Krishnamurty is a professional gambler, political analyst and journalist. Paul's special interests are cricket, politics, snooker and golf betting. Paul is a regular contributor for betting.betfair.com and appears weekly on the Cricket...Only Bettor podcast.
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