Ashes 2017/18 free betting tips: Preview of fifth Test at the Sydney Cricket Ground
While the team news is likely to be all important for the final Ashes Test at Sydney, Dave Tickner does have a couple of top-bowler selections.
Let’s get the excuses in early. It’s all eyes on the team news before taking the plunge with any outright bet on the fifth Test.
If Mitchell Starc is fully fit and plays, 4/6 about Australia making it 4-0 is good business. If he isn’t fully fit or doesn’t make it at all, then England at 7/2 has to be the call after the way Joe Root’s men stood up in Melbourne.
Yes, a slow, low, dead pitch made it easier for England but there’s little doubt that the shape of the game was markedly different with Jackson Bird sending down friendly 80mph dross rather than Starc swinging the new ball and reversing the old one at north of 90mph.
Reports out of Australia suggest Starc has come through training OK, and much will depend on how his injured heel reacts. There is no doubt Australia are desperate to give him the chance to play in a victory lap on his home ground.
But there is a four-Test tour of South Africa just around the corner for Australia, and they surely won’t want to take any chances with a player as important as Starc – especially now the whitewash is off the table.
Whatever happens with Starc, England’s confidence will surely have been buoyed by their endeavours in Melbourne and the return to form of key senior players Alastair Cook and Stuart Broad. Having averted the whitewash, there is less pressure on Root and his team now, and they might just flourish on a pitch that should offer more than the Melbourne pudding while still offering few demons.
While a watch-and-wait policy is necessary in the outright markets, there are a couple of prices in the respective top-bowler markets that do catch the eye.
First, James Anderson is available at 11/4 to be England’s top first-innings wicket-taker with Stan James. I can’t work out why he’s that price; the 2/1 available elsewhere looks far closer to the mark even allowing for Broad’s effort at the MCG.
Anderson has been comfortably the pick of England’s bowlers in Australia. While that in itself may not be saying much, 16 wickets at 26 apiece tells a story given the lack of support he’s received. With better bowling around him, Anderson’s figures would surely be better still. He hasn’t, for instance, had anything like the same opportunity to bowl at the tail as his Australian counterparts.
And, in Sydney, he heads to a ground where his record is good – almost identical in fact to his series record over the first four Tests here. He’s taken 13 wickets at 27 each in three SCG Tests, and been leading wicket-taker in two of the three first innings.
He’s bowling better now than at any other stage in his career and should surely be a clearer favourite here given that Broad, Chris Woakes, and potential debutant leg-spinner Mason Crane form his only serious opposition in this market.
For Australia, Pat Cummins also looks to have been mysteriously under-rated at 7/2 (Betfair Sportsbook). That price would stand out even if Starc were fully fit and guaranteed to both play and perform to his limit.
Neither of these things is certain. If Starc plays and performs, we’re getting a nice enough price about a third seamer full of form and confidence. If Starc doesn’t, we’re getting a great price about the bowler most likely to knock over the tail in the left-armer’s absence.
As with Anderson the prices available elsewhere tell a story, with quotes as short as 5/2.
Cummins led the way with four wickets in England’s only innings at Melbourne as he belatedly got something approaching the return his efforts in this series have merited.
Recommended bets
2pts James Anderson top England bowler (1st inns) at 11/4
2pts Pat Cummins top Australia bowler (1st inns) at 7/2
Posted at 1540 GMT on 02/01/18.