England v West Indies betting tips: First Test and series preview
Dave Tickner reckons West Indies could be in the pink against England at Edgbaston, and also has three series bets.
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England take a leap into the unknown on Thursday when they kick off their three-match Test series against West Indies with a day-night, pink-ball game at Edgbaston.
We’ll be having lunch at 4pm, play will finish at 9.30pm, and nobody quite knows what will happen in between.
Stuart Broad has bowled 21,727 deliveries in Test cricket alone, but before this week had bowled one delivery ever (for a promotional video) with a pink ball.
"I just don't know what to expect,” Broad said on Monday. “We are just going to have to be so adaptable on the day and figure out what's going on.
"It's an exciting concept. I watched the day-night match in Adelaide and enjoyed it. The exciting thing as a player is we are going in with a clear mind and learning on the job almost.
"The team which will come out successful this week will be the team which reacts quicker."
It could well be a very strange Test match. One theory is that batting will be easy during the daylight hours but far harder when the lights take effect. We could, for instance, see a funky declaration if bowling at one particular part of the day becomes demonstrably advantageous.
Some players also claim the pink ball goes softer quicker than the red, others say it swings less. The manufacturer insists this is not true.
I’m genuinely fascinated by this Test, and looking forward to it more than any other recent game. As Broad says, the uncertainty is beguiling.
And because of that uncertainty, I can’t resist a bit of loose change on a West Indies win at 16/1. They have a terrible away record, but did win their most recent ‘away’ Test against Pakistan in the UAE (albeit in a dead rubber) and their overall form is not too disgraceful with two wins in their last four Tests.
Look, I can’t pretend there’s a strong statistical basis for supporting West Indies.
But let’s look at instead as opposing England. They are a good team – a better one than West Indies for sure – but remain more than capable of throwing in a truly dreadful performance.
And when they do, they lose. Test draws in England are now almost extinct, and a side that has lost by 340 runs, 10 wickets, 75 runs and an innings and 46 runs within their last 12 home Tests have to be vulnerable to a 16/1 upset in a match that could hinge on who is batting when conditions lurch in favour of the bowlers.
It’s for the same reason that I’m not putting up a 3-0 England win at a superficially tempting 8/11; I’m just not quite confident enough in England having the consistency needed to justify that price.
Someone whose consistency does merit support is Joe Root. Even at just 5/2 he’s a lock in the top England batsman market. He’s scored at least a 50 in each of his last 10 Tests and, while his century conversion rate needs to improve, it’s that consistency that takes out this market.
He’s done it in three of England’s last four series, missing out only in the two-Test trip to Bangladesh, and comfortably. Against South Africa he scored 131 more than his nearest rival, in India the figure was 110 and against Pakistan last summer 89.
His work over the last year has been startlingly consistent, reaching 50 in six of his last 11 innings and 49 in another.
And while Root may be short of hundreds recently, he’s kicked off each of his last two series (against far superior opponents than he faces here) with three-figure scores. Another hundred this week and he’ll be setting a pace which his consistently reliable returns will make hard for his talented but flakier team-mates to reel in.
England’s ‘second’ spinner Moeen Ali also looks a no-brainer at the prices in the top England bowler market. He took five more than anyone else against South Africa, and even when struggling dreadfully in India took more than anyone bar Adil Rashid.
The return to fitness of Chris Woakes gives England the option of resting one or both of James Anderson and Stuart Broad at some stage ahead of the Ashes, potentially handing Moeen a significant advantage over his two major rivals in this market.
And even if Broad and Anderson play all three Tests, 9/2 about Moeen still looks big.
Finally, Roston Chase is overpriced at 6/1 to be West Indies’ leading batsman in the series.
He may be an all-rounder, but it’s with the bat that he’s made the biggest impression since coming into the side last year. Indeed, since his debut he's scored 99 more runs than any other West Indies batsman in that period, contributing three of the five centuries West Indies have made in those 10 matches.
Two of those centuries came in his last two Tests in the spring when he moved up to number five in the order, and there has been no sign of his form slipping since arriving in England. In four tour-match innings he’s made 81 and 50 not out against Essex followed by unbeaten scores of 110 and 60 against Derbyshire.
Given the paucity of his rivals here – only Kraigg Brathwaite has serious top-order Test pedigree – the 6/1 seems at least a point generous.
Where to watch on TV: Sky Sports Cricket
Posted at 1345 BST on 15/08/17.
Related links
England v West Indies 1st Test guide
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Sky Bet's England v West Indies odds