Dave Tickner has a 50/1 pick to go with a safer 10/11 selection for the second Test between England and South Africa.
Click here for all the team news, quotes and key statistics
Recommended Bets: England v South Africa 2nd Test
Click here for our fully transparent tipping record
It was comprehensive in the end at Lord’s, England winning by 211 runs on the fourth evening to secure a dream start to the Joe Root Era.
But it could have been very different. England’s top order failed – again – on the first morning, and the lunchtime 82-4 could have been even worse given the let-offs Root had before he had got going in his ultimately match-defining 190.
And then there’s the alarming way the batting collapsed in the second innings, and the fact the quicks – England’s usual route to victory in home conditions – had combined match figures of 6-248 from 80 overs.
CLICK HERE FOR ENGLAND v SOUTH AFRICA SECOND TEST GUIDE
None of this is intended to decry or diminish England’s achievements, but is instead a reminder that there remains doubts over this side. Yes, South Africa look weak – arguably as weak as at any stage since readmission – and have greater questions to answer, but I’m not about to steam in to England at prices approaching 1/2 here when they went off evens last week.
Does that mean South Africa are value at 7/2? Err… probably not. Having already backed them at that price in the series betting, I’m not going back in after the way they played at HQ.
The way they collapsed on the fourth day was worryingly gutless, while if the old adage about fielding being a window into a cricket team’s soul is true, then South Africa are in deep trouble after a simply woeful effort at Lord’s.
The return of Faf du Plessis is huge for the Proteas, obviously. At a stroke it adds leadership to a team seemingly in grave need of it, bolsters the fragile batting and improves the fielding.
But it’s offset at least in part by the loss to suspension of Kagiso Rabada. I’m not convinced Vernon Philander was fully fit even before having his wrist badly bruised by James Anderson, while Morne Morkel is dangerous but inconsistent and Rabada’s replacement will either be the inexperienced Duanne Olivier or Chris Morris, a gifted all-rounder but not a bowler who will terrify Test batsmen.
Heino Kuhn already has the look of a 2017 Gerhardus Liebenberg at the top of the order; the ease with which Stuart Broad removed him with away movement in the first innings at Lord’s is a worry heading to a ground where swing bowling generally holds sway.
Dean Elgar is a solid cricketer who will benefit from handing back the reins, but Hashim Amla’s form is starting to become a concern. He did little at Lord’s, and that was no blip. He averages just 30 in his last 10 Tests with only two scores above 50.
The middle-order looks better, especially with Du Plessis back at four and Quinton de Kock now batting at five as befits his enormous talent. Temba Bavuma is improving, while Theunis de Bruyn showed some first-innings ticker.
But it’s still some way short of South African top-orders of recent vintage where you had Graeme Smith at the top, and then Amla in his pomp, Jacques Kallis and AB de Villiers.
Given what happened in the last Test here at Trent Bridge, when England demolished Australia for just 60 before lunch on the first morning, and the brittle, collapsible nature of South Africa’s batting line-up, I’m staggered to see a dismissive 50/1 thrown out for Philander to top-score for the Proteas from number eight. His last four Test innings against England – all in England – are 61, 35, 52 and 19 not out.
Obviously, that Australia 60 all out is something of a freak, but this is a ground where such low scores do happen. Mitchell Johnson top-scored from number eight that day – albeit with only 13 – while Australia were 117-9 two years earlier before Ashton Agar top-scored with 98 from number 11.
Darren Sammy made 106 batting at number eight here for West Indies in 2012, coming in at 136-6, while Umar Gul blasted a defiant (and top-scoring) 65 not out off 46 balls in Pakistan’s 182 all out here in 2010.
Essentially, you have here the perfect combination of ground, team, and lower-order player to produce the desired result. Clearly a punt on Philander is pretty speculative and there’s plenty that can go wrong along the way, but 50/1 looks double a fair price for me.
With the likely value loser out of the way there, let’s look to make sure we walk away from the game with a profit by taking on Sky Bet’s 28.5 line for South Africa’s opening partnership.
Kuhn looks like he could have a torrid summer and Elgar, while solid enough, is unlikely to race out of the blocks. Given the success Stuart Broad (38 wickets at 18.58) and James Anderson (53 at 19.24) have enjoyed with the new ball here down the years, 10/11 about South Africa’s opening partnership failing to muster 29 isn’t exactly way out of line but certainly looks on the generous side.
The first-innings opening stands against England here in the decade that could be dubbed the Anderson-Broad Era are (most recent first): 4, 33, 19, 9, 0, 5, 2.
Even the one score north of 28.5, the 33 made by India’s Shikhar Dhawan and Murali Vijay in 2014, comes with a caveat on an atypical dead Trent Bridge pitch that produced a high-scoring draw (the only stalemate in the last 12 Tests here) best remembered for James Anderson's career-best 81 in England’s first innings.
South Africa’s opening stands at Lord’s were 10 and 12, and it would be no surprise to see Hashim Amla striding to the crease early in the first innings here.
Where to watch on TV: Sky Sports 2
Posted at 2045 BST on 12/07/17.