Cricket betting tips: England v India Test series preview

Cricket tips: England v India Test series, August 4-September 14

3pts Mohammed Shami top India series bowler bowler at 5/1 (Unibet)

2pts Jos Buttler top England series batsman at 14/1 (Unibet)

1pt KL Rahul top India first-innings batsman in the first Test at 6/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Ben Stokes’ decision to miss this summer’s Test series with India and take an extended break from cricket to prioritise his mental wellbeing should be applauded – and thankfully, in most quarters, it has been – but there can be no doubt that his absence changes the complexion of the series.

For England, they will be without their talisman, their best player, the team’s heartbeat. Make no mistake, that is what Stokes is to this Test side and when he is missing – like he was in Australia in 2017/2018 and for two Tests against New Zealand recently – England’s batting lacks the bravado and quality he brings, while that magic touch with the ball, like the kind he found in Cape Town at the beginning of last year, isn’t always easy to find elsewhere.

Above all else, Stokes has an aura like all the great sportspeople do: think Ronnie O’Sullivan in snooker, Tiger Woods in golf, Usain Bolt on the track. England will miss Stokes badly this summer. India will not.

Of all modern-day cricketers, only Virat Kohli could reasonably claim to have a bigger presence than Stokes, and India’s captain certainly made the stage his own when stroking two dominant centuries and amassing 593 across five matches when England and India locked horns on these shores three years ago.

His almost impenetrable blade wasn’t enough to stop his side slipping to a 4-1 series defeat on that occasion, but in truth, that scorecard flattered the hosts who won a number of crucial tosses that summer and still had Alastair Cook in the side as well as Stokes doing his thing.

With no Cook, Stokes and Moeen Ali – one of England’s stars of the latter part of that series – the task ahead of England is significant, even with home advantage, against a team that beat them 3-1 in India just last winter and who were losing finalists in the recent ICC Test Championship final. England are slight favourites to win the series, and that is no great surprise, but the betting is struggling to split the two and suggests we could be in for an entertaining few weeks.

This series begins a huge six huge months for English cricket which will also see the T20 side take in a World Cup in Abu Dhabi before the Test team are due to head Down Under for the Ashes. For Joe Root – and as I wrote here last week, James Anderson – the stakes are high, and that experienced pair, along with fellow senior players, Stuart Broad and Jos Buttler, will need to enjoy strong series’ if England are to start off on the right path in the next month or so.

Without Stokes, there will be even more pressure on the likes of Dan Lawrence, Zak Crawley, Ollie Pope and even Dom Sibley to really impact the series and finally nail down their positions in the starting XI, while it will be fascinating to see whether Jonny Bairstow and Haseeb Hameed can force their way into the top six at some stage.

Whichever way England go with selection, the inexperience and form of his batsmen will concern head coach Chris Silverwood given the way New Zealand’s pace attack feasted on their prey in June.

Bairstow would at least add more experience, but having averaged only 24.66 in Test cricket since the start of 2018, he would need to hit the ground running in order to keep his detractors quiet, while none of Crawley, Pope or Sibley convinced in India or against the Kiwis.

Though initially an injury doubt for Wednesday’s opener at Trent Bridge, I remain steadfast in my belief that Pope will confirm himself a high-class international batsman before too long, but the jury is still out on the rest.

I recently made the point in my series pointers piece that one thing in England’s favour was the decision to select a group of primarily right-handed batsmen in the squad for the first two Tests, and while Stokes is a colossal loss in every sense, Ravi Ashwin, like against most left-handers, has a good record against the Durham man.

It’s the same with Ishant Sharma who is much happier swinging the ball away from the lefties and picked up 10 wickets of left-handers in the 2018 series, as opposed to eight right-handers. With Jasprit Bumrah also a terrific bowler to left-handers, England have selected smartly here, for all I’m itching to see Dawid Malan back in whites ahead of the Ashes.

This strategic gamble – and leaving Malan and Moeen Ali out of the squad for the first two Tests is a gamble given the recent form of those currently in possession – might just tip the scales in England’s favour, even without Stokes, though strategy will only ever be successful if the players are good enough to do the rest.

Nevertheless, I do think there are runs to be had for England’s batsmen – without downplaying what a fine attack they will be up against – and Root is the obvious starting point when looking for a top England batsman bet.

Magnificent in the winter and sublime in the ODI series against Sri Lanka just a few weeks ago, Root certainly ticks all the right boxes and a career average of 54.21 against India suggests he will be hard to beat in the series betting – particularly without Stokes for company. The layers haven’t missed a trick, though, and with the Yorkshireman no value at 11/8, I can’t resist a bet on the returning BUTTLER instead.

If the rest of 2021 is shaping up to be a crucial period for the legacies of Root and Anderson, one senses that England are hoping for special things from Buttler; now firmly established as the number one choice wicket-keeper across all three formats and rested for the bulk of last winter's Test series against the same opposition and the recent New Zealand clash. Stokes, Root and Anderson are key to England’s hopes in the next six months, but so, too, is Buttler. England have bet big on him over the years and now is the time they need to see a significant return on their investment.

England’s bet certainly looked to be paying off by the end of last summer as Buttler ended it as the Player of the Series against Pakistan following a quite brilliant match-winning innings of 152 at Old Trafford. He then ticked over nicely in Sri Lanka before being given a good break before the Indian Premier League in the spring.

Helped by his maiden Test century at Trent Bridge, Buttler was England’s leading runscorer in the aforementioned 2018 series and with Sam Curran in the running to replace Stokes and slot in at number seven, Buttler could be well placed to repeat the feat from number six. Root ought to be a tough nut to crack, of course, but with Pope battling his own fitness and a few technical quandaries, Buttler has to be the value play at 14/1 (Unibet) with so many question marks surrounding the rest of the England line-up.

The Indian attack might not be too dissimilar from the one that performed so admirably here three years ago, though casual fans would be wise keep an eye on Mohammed Siraj who has impressed in his short international career to date. Siraj might have to wait his turn in this series, but he is a terrific bowler with skills to belie his relative inexperience and will surely be required over the course of the five-Test series.

More immediately, attention will focus on Bumrah and Ashwin, while Sharma will be expected to revel like he has before with the Dukes ball in hand. However, Bumrah was off the pace in the World Championship final and he hasn’t had the cricket he would have ideally liked to sharpen up in the interim.

He’s a class act, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he took his time to warm to his work this summer, and I’m expecting India’s chief bowling threat to come in the shape of MOHAMMED SHAMI; brilliant went claiming 16 wickets on these shores in 2018 and deserving of a good deal more following a number of luckless spells in the series.

Since then, Shami has resolved to bowl a fuller length when swinging the ball with his beautiful seam presentation, and that change in approach certainly paid dividends in the ICC World Championship final as he claimed four first-innings wickets and proved to be the pick of the Indian attack.

For overseas fast bowlers, England can be a steep learning curve, but Shami is well-travelled and just about the finished article now. If he can stay fit, he might just be the best suited of the away attack to England’s top six and finish the series as India’s leading wicket-taker. The 5/1 on offer with Unibet has to be taken.

When looking at this series, the one think that is striking is that England’s batting, in particular, has chopped and changed in the last few years – different horses being backed at different times – while India have largely trusted the same core batsmen despite the clamour to make room for a host of talented, younger strokemakers to have shone in the IPL.

Cheteshwar Pujara, who made 278 runs at 39.71 in 2018, remains the rock at number three while Rohit Sharma, firmly established at the top of the order, and Ajinkya Rahane are locked in the top six alongside Kohli. Shubman Gill would be there too, had injury not ended his tour prematurely, but with Rahane also a fitness doubt for Trent Bridge, the classy KL RAHUL could be in line for a recall.

Rahul has rarely been sighted in whites since ending the 2018 tour of England with a brilliant century at the Oval, but a hundred in India's lone tour game against a County Select XI last week will have done his claims no harm and he wants backing should he earn a recall in Nottingham.

Limited-overs cricket played with a white ball that rarely moves off the straight makes it hard to know whether Rahul is still susceptible to the ball shaping back into him – and Sam Curran certainly caused him problems in 2018 – but I don’t mind rolling the dice once in a while and Rahul and his rich talent is a punt worth taking with stakes refunded if he doesn’t play at Trent Bridge.

As for the series betting, I’d be wary of taking short odds about Kohli to repeat his exploits of three years ago and top India’s run charts at the end of the summer. As explained, Kohli hasn’t looked quite the same player since, with his returns diminished and New Zealand seemingly finding a weakness when dragging him across his stumps with the outswinger before trying to sucker punch him with the inswinger and trap him LBW.

How Kohli performs over the course of the five Tests might ultimately decide the outcome of the series, and that’s part of the reason why I have no objection with England starting as slight favourites despite their own frailties with the bat and having to go into battle without Stokes. Kohli remains a high-class player, that much is in no doubt, but I need convincing that he can scale the same heights he once did, and with Pujara now 18 Tests since his last century, it isn’t only the home side with worries over their ability to post competitive first-innings totals.

Sharma is unproven against the red ball in England, too, while Gill’s replacement, Mayank Agarwal, could come unstuck on these shores when driving if not moving his feet more and transferring his weight into the ball better.

With all that in mind, Rishabh Pant – an old friend of these pages – has to come under consideration for series honours, but I’m not sure he yet has a reliable remedy, other than all-out attack, when the ball is moving around, and I think I’d rather pick and choose my moments with him.

As way of reiterating my point, should Rahul get the gig this week, he would rate a better bet at 6/1 than those odds suggest.

How England manage Anderson and Broad in the coming weeks will be fascinating, too, and I wouldn’t be surprised were Ollie Robinson to play as many, if not more, Tests in this series than either of the veteran pair and finish as England’s leading wicket-taker.

That said, I’ve given up drawing conclusions about Anderson and just as he has done so many times before, he could well defy all expectations and lead England’s attack from start to finish before promising more of the same in Australia.

Like Kohli, how Anderson shapes up in this series – having just celebrated his 39th birthday – is just one of a number of fascinating sub-plots to a most intriguing contest. For once, these two giants of the sport have a few questions to answer in the coming weeks, and the outcome of their own personal battles could have seismic ramifications for both – good and bad.

Published at 1730 BST on 02/08/21

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