England v India Test series betting pointers and talking points: Virat Kohli battles to overcome technical issues

Kohli the key but Kiwis show the way

When Virat Kohli amassed 593 runs in England in 2018, in the process banishing the memories of a torrid tour of the same country four years earlier, it was hard to believe anyone else could play the game better. While the rest of his colleagues largely struggled on some spicy pitches against a fine home attack, Kohli prospered and made two centuries and three half-centuries in five Tests.

Brian Lara is the best batsman I’ve ever seen, but Kohli’s performances in 2018, and in the run up to that series, put him in the mix for second spot alongside his compatriot Sachin Tendulkar. Kohli is a champion batsman and a fully-fledged great of the game in any era.

Three years on and Kohli remains India’s trump card, the king whose wicket opposition teams prize more than any other and one bowlers crave to add to their CV. A closer look at his batting since 2018 tells a different story, however, with his returns slightly diminished and his game not looking in anywhere near as good shape.

Kohli has slipped to number four in the ICC Test batting rankings, has very little in hand over Joe Root at number five, and in eight Tests since the beginning of 2020, he has only made 345 runs at an average of 24.64, with no hundreds. Looking further back, 2019 saw healthier returns, but an unbeaten 254 against South Africa and 136 against Bangladesh – both at home – help massage those numbers. Kohli has made only one century away from home since the aforementioned series against England – against Australia at Perth in 2018.

That’s not to say Kohli isn't still a very fine player. Of course he is. But close inspection of the numbers and what you see with your eyes tells us he might not be quite the batsman he was – not at present, anyway – and taking short prices about him this summer could prove an expensive exercise.

The problem for India is that if Kohli doesn’t fire, then who will? In 2018, Cheteshwar Pujara was the only other top-order Indian batsman to average over 30 – 278 runs at 39.71 – and a rejig at the top of the order will now be required with opener Shubman Gill ruled out the tour. The need for Rohit Sharma to fire up front in the same way he did in the winter is greater than ever.

Back to Kohli, and he will be aware of all this. As ever, he will be desperate to lead from the front and to give his own excellent attack the runs to play with in order to be competitive against an England side that has its own frailties to overcome.

He is sure to have been working hard on his batting and resolved to iron out some of the flaws that appear to have crept into his game, not least his vulnerability to deliveries nipping back into his pads and trapping him LBW. Kyle Jamieson dismissed him in that manner in the ICC Test Championship final in June, meaning three of his last four dismissals against New Zealand have been leg before wicket.

In his seven innings against England in the winter, Kohli was only dismissed LBW once but he was bowled on three occasions, suggesting bowling straight was the preferred method of attack there. With conditions in England usually much more in favour of the seamers, and with the Dukes ball another tick for bowlers, the likes of James Anderson and Stuart Broad are sure to be eyeing up their prey. If New Zealand have spotted a weakness in Kohli’s technique, England are unlikely to have missed it.

The issue with that technique is that Kohli has worked so hard to get across his stumps to ensure he is able to cover his off stump and play those danger balls in the channel under his eyes and not away from his body like in 2014. As a consequence, he has made himself vulnerable elsewhere. His front shoulder can drag the rest of his body across with it and when his front leg follows, he is susceptible to the ball nipping back into him.

That doesn’t mean he won’t still score heavily off his pads – his hand-eye coordination will ensure he does – but if England pick their moments, be patient and drag their man across his stumps, they will feel they are in business against Kohli, a stark contrast to when seemingly bereft of ideas back in 2018.

Such battles sum up sport at the highest level, and Test cricket can throw up tactical match-ups much closer to a game of chess than a contest between bat and ball.

Bettors will have the same quandaries to consider in the coming weeks, but if Trent Bridge looks to be on the slow and low side when Kohli comes to the crease in the first Test, England’s plan of attack ought to be clear and in-running punters would be minded to keep a close eye on the prices for next method of dismissal. Anything in the region of 4/1 for LBW might just be worth taking.

England bank on cunning plan

'I have cunning plan' might be one of the most famous lines in the history of British comedy, but one suspects Chris Silverwood and Joe Root uttered something similar to one another when planning for the next few weeks, and more specifically, when picking the squad for the opening two Tests at Trent Bridge and Lord's.

There really must be a cunning plan, given Zak Crawley has kept his place in the squad despite only averaging 10.25 in six Tests in 2021 so far. Jonny Bairstow is back in the mix despite seeing his fortunes in red-ball cricket take a nosedive as his white-ball form has gone the other way. Since the beginning of 2018, Bairstow has averaged 24.66 in Test cricket.

It seems highly likely that both with be vying for the critical number three spot that only Joe Denly has come close to making his own since the retirement of Jonathan Trott – though Root surely would if he had the inclination – when a better option might come in the shape of Dawid Malan, the occupant of that position for England in T20I cricket and with quite sparkling results.

Malan is far from a one-card trick either, having made a double hundred for Yorkshire in the County Championship earlier this summer and been one of England's better performers on the last Ashes tour Down Under in 2017/2018. His century in Perth was a brilliant hand and one of the highlights of England's winter.

Given he is one of England's best players of fast bowling, particularly on quick pitches, I remain convinced Mallan should be on the plane again to Australia in a few month time. Perhaps, then, it is significant that neither he, James Bracey or Moeen Ali have seemingly come under consideration for this series – that despite Moeen's fine form in T20 cricket and the fact he was one of England's star men when India were beaten 4-1 on these shores 2018.

Back to the cunning plan then. In that aforementioned 2018 series, England's top order were caused considerable problems by Ishant Sharma and Jasprit Bumrah who shared 32 wickets between them. Ravi Ashwin picked up 11 wickets. What all three have in common in that they are exceptional bowlers to left-handers and that proved to be the case three years ago.

England squad for first two Tests against India: Root (c), Anderson, Bairstow, Bess, Broad, Burns, Buttler, Crawley, S Curran, Hameed, Lawrence, Leach, Pope, Robinson, Sibley, Wood.

England had no issues in fielding numerous left-handers in that series; Alastair Cook and Keaton Jennings opened the batting throughout, while Moeen moved up and down the order and had Dawid Malan, Ben Stokes, Sam Curran and Stuart Broad for company at different stages. Ishant certainly enjoyed the challenge, bowling long spells from around the wicket and picking up 10 scalps from left-handers. Ashwin – historically an excellent operator to left-handers – bagged nine, and Bumrah six from his three Tests.

It wasn't enough to stop England winning the series, of course, but it caused them plenty of problems and had Root not won a number of crucial tosses that summer, the scoreline could quite easily have been different at the end of what was a competitive contest. Three years on, England appear wise to their opponents, and though Rory Burns is an automatic pick, those left-handers who aren't appear surplus to requirements for now.

Looking ahead to Trent Bridge, England's top seven appears certain to house only one left-hander – Burns, with Stokes now absent – and don't be at all surprised if Sharma and Ashwin find the going tougher than they did in 2018, or in Ashwin's case, just last winter in India. Though a team sport, the very essence of cricket is a dual between batsman and bowler; one on one. Match-ups make Test cricket and England's cunning plan to counter India's key bowlers might just have tipped the scales in their favour.

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.