England and India lock horns in the semi-finals of the T20 World Cup in Guyana on Thursday afternoon, and Richard Mann has four bets in his match preview.
Cricket betting tips: England v India
1.5pts Rohit Sharma Man of the Match at 10/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
1pt Kuldeep Yadav top India bowler at 4/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
0.5pt Kuldeep Yadav Man of the Match at 19/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
2pts Harry Brook top England batsman at 6/1 (AK Bets)
In a repeat of the 2022 T20 World Cup semi-final in Adelaide, England and India will do battle at Guyana's Providence Stadium on Thursday, 3.30pm UK time, for a place in Saturday’s final.
There are some parallels with that tournament, certainly for England who were beaten by Ireland in the group stage in Australia before turning it on in the latter stages, thumping India by 10 wickets and then beating Pakistan in the final.
India have been by some distance the best team on show this time around, cruising into the last four with an unbeaten run that now stretches to seven games, and it’s hard to argue with match odds of 4/6.
But a word of caution: we've been here before with this India team. India appeared to have last year’s 50-over World Cup on home soil all but sewn up before only stuttering past New Zealand in the semi-finals and then failing to deliver in the final against Australia.
Knockout matches have come to define this white-ball Indian side, brilliant in bilateral series but seemingly held back by a soft underbelly when at the point of no return. This week is chance to rewrite that legacy.
Brave Rohit can show India the way
I do think captain ROHIT SHARMA has identified the problem and, at last year’s World Cup in particular, resolved to lead by example with an ultra-aggressive approach to his batting in the powerplay, in the hope others would follow.
In my view, Rohit’s selfless batting allowed Virat Kohli to prosper in that tournament, able to score a step slower because his captain had often put the team in such a strong position regarding run rate. It can ease the pressure on the rest of the middle order, too, and makes India, with such a wonderful bowling attack, very hard to beat.
We also saw this in evidence in the final of that tournament when Rohit came out of the blocks like a greyhound, blitzing 47 from only 31 balls, while Kohli made 54 from 63 and KL Rahul laboured to 66 from 107.
Rohit’s dismissal changed the course of that match, though he gained a degree of revenge when again cutting loose against Australia on Monday, 92 from 41 balls powering India to 205-5 batting first, ultimately knocking the Australians out of the competition.
Once again, I firmly believe that Rohit is absolutely key to how this match plays out. If England can dismiss him early, they can put pressure on India and potentially squeeze that run rate on a Providence surface that has historically favoured spin in the middle overs. If Rohit gets India off to flyer, I suspect they’ll win.
England will be well aware of the threat he poses. The Hitman averages a healthy 34.16 against England in this format, with a century and two fifties to go with the two ODI hundreds and four fifties against the same opposition.
Given India are such warm favourites to win the match in conditions that should suit, I can’t resist a few quid on India’s captain in the Man of the Match market at 10/1.
Spin expected to dominate in Guyana
The pitch in Guyana makes for an interesting talking point, with spinners generally favoured here and the average first innings score at this World Cup only 146. That is slightly down on the overall average, and given this is a day match, spin is expected to dominate again.
Another potential factor is the Caribbean weather which has been unsettled and isn’t offering a great forecast for Thursday. However, it wasn’t much different on Monday and, barring the odd interruption, it had little effect. With no reserve date for this semi-final (go figure), India would progress to the final with a washout.
Two other bets put forward are KULDEEP YADAV for top India bowler and HARRY BROOK for top England batsman.
Kuldeep ought to find Jasprit Bumrah a tough nut to crack, given the latter has 11 wickets at 8.54 in the tournament so far. That said, Kuldeep has been outstanding since coming back into the starting XI, claiming seven wickets in only three matches and currently boasting a slightly superior strike-rate to Bumrah (10.2 to Bumrah’s 12.5).
With Ravi Jadeja struggling to impact thus far, and Arshdeep Singh looking a good match-up for England’s right-hand dominant batting line-up, I reckon Kuldeep has a lot going for him here, not least the turning pitch already alluded to.
Kuldeep has developed into an outstanding all-format bowler who caused England no end of problems in the home Test series not long back, and I’m not convinced the likes of Jonny Bairstow will be any wiser in how to pick his variations just a few months on.
India might well have succumbed to Australia earlier in the week but for Kuldeep’s foxing of the well-set Mitch Marsh and dangerous Glenn Maxwell, and his figures of 4-0-24-2 were terrific in a high-scoring match against such a powerful middle order.
I’m expecting him to have another big game, so splitting stakes in the top India bowler market at 4/1 and to be Man of the Match at 19/1 makes plenty of appeal.
Brook to prove England's best
Finally, Brook must make the staking plan at 6/1, firstly on account of price and also in the belief that after Joe Root he is the best batsman in England across all formats.
Brook has everything and while in Test cricket he might need to curb his attacking instincts on occasion, that isn’t required in this format, for all I thought he batted with great maturity for his 37-ball 53 against South Africa when, in truth, he was probably only a couple of hits from winning England the match against a fine attack in tough conditions.
This will be another stern test for England’s batting line-up, both in terms of the quality of attack in opposition and also the conditions likely to be presented to them. Brook, for my money, is the best equipped of England’s top seven to deal with all of that.
With India boasting threats aplenty with the ball, I’m not sure I favour the top order over the middle order in this one, or the other way round, so I’ve plumped for quality of player and price. Brook wins out on both counts, so rates a bet.
Posted at 1155 BST on 26/06/24
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