Check out Richard Mann's outright betting preview for the ICC T20 World Cup, ahead of the Super 12 stage which gets under way in Australia on Saturday.
Cricket tips: ICC T20 World Cup
3pts India to win the T20 World Cup at 7/2 (General)
This year’s ICC T20 World Cup shapes up as one of the most intriguing renewals in recent times, with Australia and its generally good pitches promising to prove the ideal host to exciting cricket played by some highly-talented but equally flawed contenders.
In fact, it’s hard to remember a World Cup where so many of the leading protagonists had major flaws in their squads, but it’s INDIA who appear to tick most boxes and they rate a solid proposition at 7/2.
This is a case of the pros very much outweighing the cons, and while Jasprit Bumrah’s absence from a bowling unit that is more about skill and guile than the bustle and brawn generally required of fast bowlers in these conditions, there is a touch of class to the attack, and that is most certainly the case with the batting.
India's skilful attack can conquer Australia
That pace attack still features the likes of Bhuvneshwar Kumar and Mohammed Shami, two excellent new-ball operators who are vastly experienced across all formats and took wickets in the recent warm-up victory over Australia.
In Harshal Patel and Arshdeep Singh, India have two of the rising stars of this format whose expertise at the death promises to give India the edge in such a crucial stage of the game. Throw in Ravi Ashwin’s spin, and the know-how and competitive spirit he brings to the party, and this looks a pretty decent bowling group.
I would prefer some extra height and pace in there, but England would like Jofra Archer and Reece Topley available, Australia to have not warmed up for their title defence with a spate of losses, and South Africa and Pakistan, to a lesser extent, not to be concerned about the strike-rates of their respective opening partnerships.
Welcome to the T20 World Cup, where there are question marks aplenty and imperfections are warmly welcomed.
India’s bowling stacks up well for my money, minus the odd missing part, but it’s the batting that really excites.
Rohit Sharma is a white-ball giant whose captaincy has rejuvenated this T20 side from the timid outfit we saw in the UAE last year to an imposing line-up that has since batted with freedom and made big scores for fun.
The Asia Cup was a major disappointment, but Sri Lanka won that event and scheduled so close to the World Cup it looked very much like India and Pakistan were using it very much as preparation.
After that, India racked up 208 against Australia at home and then chased down 187 against the same opposition, before posting 237-3 against South Africa. This batting unit has grown in confidence and seems to be peaking just at the right time.
Batting takes shape as Rahul finds form
Key to that was the improved form of KL Rahul who has long been a star of the IPL and finally looks set to crack international cricket in this format. Rahul has made six half-centuries in his last nine innings ahead of the World Cup and his fine run will be a great relief to Rohit who now knows he has a settled opening partner for Australia.
Group 2 team-by-team guide
Virat Kohli’s form has been another major talking point and while not bouncing back quite as emphatically as Rahul, he made a century against Afghanistan at the Asia Cup and has added a couple of fifties since.
Crucially his strike-rate has improved and, like Rahul, I think having more pace to work with on quicker pitches in Australia will suit these two wonderful touch players ideally.
That top three looks particularly strong and yet it is Suryakumar Yadav who might prove best of the lot. English fans will remember his astonishing century in a losing cause at Trent Bridge last summer and for a man who has batted in the middle order throughout his career, nine half-centuries and a hundred from 32 T20I innings is very good going.
Yadav’s strike-rate in those matches is a rapid 176.81 and when you consider that the likes of Hardik Pandya (148.49) and Dinesh Karthik – whose strike-rate in 2022 is 150.82 – follow him in the order, this is an engine room capable of doing some real damage. Yadav is the ace in the pack, but he will have able support from two destructive finishers.
With so much class and experience above them, this is a stellar batting line-up and it’s worth remembering that Rishabh Pant will likely be warming the bench when the tournament begins, so strong is that top six.
I’m sure Rohit will feel that his batting group will be capable of posting and chasing big scores in Australia, so if he can manage well and get the best out of his bowlers, India ought to go very close.
IPL experience can help India on biggest stage
It’s in the latter stages when India are always such a dangerous proposition thanks to the big-match experience the IPL has given so many of this squad.
Other sides have it, of course, but Rohit is one of the most successful captains in the history of the IPL. Pandya was this year’s winning captain.
T20 World Cup specials
It’s that know-how that becomes invaluable in big games of big tournaments. I certainly think it helped Australia produce an irresistible run in the UAE when Pakistan and New Zealand faltered near the winning line, and this Indian team is packed full of big-match players, and winners.
The 7/2 on offer might be too short for some given India aren’t bombproof, but having already backed South Africa at 10/1 a couple of months ago, before a couple of injuries hurt their preparations, Rohit's team now make most appeal.
India and South Africa look set to fight out a three-way battle with Pakistan to progress to the semi-finals from Group 2, with Bangladesh expected to prove a soft touch.
Despite injuries to Rassie van der Dussen, who finished the 2021 World Cup as South Africa’s leading runscorer, and Dwaine Pretorius, whose all-round skills offered priceless balance, I still think this South African side is a good one.
Like India, the batting has become more aggressive and those two teams played out a high-scoring series earlier in the year, before the Proteas travelled to England and beat them on their own turf.
In Quinton de Kock and Aiden Markram there is real quality there, with David Miller and Rillee Rossouw adding the firepower.
Perhaps there is even more to be excited by with the bowling, however. Anrich Nortje is big, strong, very quick, and seemingly ideal for Australia. He was most impressive in the UAE last year, and the likes of Kagiso Rabada and Lungi Ngidi are no slouches either.
Spin options are aplenty, with Keshav Maharaj reliable in all stages of the innings and Tabraiz Shamsi a genuine wicket-taker. South Africa might only feel the need to go with one of that pair in most games, with Tristan Stubbs’ raw power with the bat complimented by his handy off spin.
Make no mistake, this is a dangerous team. Only those two big injuries and the form of captain Temba Bavuma sit in the negatives column, and while they aren’t alone in that respect, I’m happy with the 10/1 already in the book and don't feel the need or will to double down on that position.
Pakistan and New Zealand set for early exit
I’m backing both South Africa and India to progress from Group 2, with Pakistan's excellent pace attack and reliable opening partnership just not enough to make up for a weak middle order that is likely to let them down at some stage.
The other nagging doubt with Pakistan is that they played so well in the UAE in conditions they knew well, yet still couldn’t finish the job. I don’t think this squad is in any better shape 12 months on – in fact, I think the middle order has regressed – and that leaves me cool on their chances in Australian conditions.
A near miss in the UAE is also the reason why I’m happy to look past last year’s runners-up New Zealand, a solid outfit but one I think will get outgunned somewhere along the way in the next few weeks.
That’s what happened in the final against Australia last year and I’m not sure the likes of Kane Williamson, Tim Southee, and even Trent Boult, are now capable of bettering those efforts, or indeed, those when they were beaten in consecutive 50-over World Cup finals in 2015 and 2019.
This has been a fine side who still have plenty to offer, but one would think they will need a personal best to finally get their hands on a World Cup and I’ve seen enough from Williamson, Southee, and Martin Guptill to suggest the light is just starting to dim with these fantastic servants to New Zealand cricket.
Another factor is conditions. Oddly enough, I think the UAE suited their style of play with some slow pitches meaning accumulation with the bat and guile with the ball won out in some relatively low scoring matches.
They might need some more va-va-voom in Australia and I can't see Thierry Henry rocking up in a Renault Clio, his whites in the boot, ready to give Williamson’s side that X-Factor they are seemingly missing.
That leaves Australia and England as strong favourites to progress to the last four from Group 1, and it would be folly to discount the defending champions, for all their preparation has involved a series defeat to England and a loss to India.
Group 1 team-by-team guide
Nevertheless, Australia can usually be relied upon to peak at the right time, and we shouldn’t understate the importance of home advantage.
Furthermore, this is a very strong side on paper – from top to bottom. Unlike last year, David Warner comes into this event in terrific form, while an already powerful middle order has been boosted by the emergence of Tim David who has taken franchise cricket by storm with his impressive ball striking at the death.
The bowling ticked most boxes in the subcontinent, so a pace attack featuring Josh Hazlewood, Mitchell Starc and Pat Cummins ought to thrive at home. Spin is covered by Adam Zampa, though whether they can continue to find four overs from Marcus Stoinis and Glenn Maxwell if put under severe pressure in the field is a slight concern.
Also concerning is the form of skipper Aaron Finch who has endured a dreadful year with the bat and looks a long way from the player he once was. Runs against India on Monday was a big boost, but with Mitchell Marsh working his way back from injury and Maxwell short of runs, perhaps there is some weakness in the top four – Warner aside.
England bank on batting power
Though just about favourites, I don’t think the Australian batting is as strong as India’s, nor England’s for that matter.
A freak injury to Jonny Bairstow at the end of the summer promised to be a huge blow to England’s chances, especially after Jos Buttler’s reign as white-ball captain began with something of a whimper.
However, the recent trip to Pakistan was a worthwhile exercise for many reasons, not least because it allowed the likes of Harry Brook and Phil Salt to make their mark and take advantage of welcome opportunities.
With with the ball, Sam Curran stood out while Mark Wood made a welcome return from injury. Wood and Curran will shoulder lots of responsibility with the ball now that Reece Topley has been ruled out of the tournament, and I do worry about England at the death, particularly if bowling second in a knockout game; Jofra Archer’s return can’t come soon enough.
With that in mind, Buttler will be pinning his hopes on the fearsome batting line-up he heads, and a couple of fifties against Australia recently will have done him plenty of good, as will runs for Dawid Malan who continues to churn out the scores and promises to be at his best in conditions that suit his game so well.
If England get to do things on their terms they have the firepower to take down any side. Australia have already felt their wrath in recent days, but there are enough question marks with the ball to put you off at 3/1.
And that is where we are: a World Cup that offers intrigue and promises great entertainment from flawed but very talented sides.
To my mind India look the most solid option and, in a tournament where big runs are expected and bowlers will likely be put under severe pressure at the death, I’m backing their attack to use their vast skills honed from years of toil in the IPL to carry the 2016 champions to their second T20 World Cup victory.
Preview posted at 1000 BST (20/10/2022)
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