Richard Mann has a strong angle for the first Test between Pakistan and West Indies, which kicks off on Friday morning.
Cricket betting tips: Pakistan v West Indies first Test
2pts Sajid Khan top Pakistan first innings bowler at 12/5 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
Pakistan begin a two-Test series against West Indies on Friday, 5:30am, UK time, with Multan playing host for both games.
It will be interesting to see what type of pitch is rolled out for the series opener, given Pakistan abruptly changed tack against England in their recent home series, losing heavily on a flat deck at Multan in the first Test, before playing on the same, now worn surface just a few days later, and this time loading their XI with spin.
It worked, as they won the second match, and third in Rawalpindi on another dry, doctored surface that brought their own spinners – who are clearly no world beaters but will bowl well in home conditions – into the game.
Pakistan expected to bank on spin
Having found Test wins hard to come by for a while now, losing another series in South Africa just in the last few weeks, despite battling bravely throughout, it’s hard to envisage Pakistan veering away from the formula that worked so well against England.
Given the pitch in Multan is, at heart, a good one, perhaps it won’t be an unfair contest between bat and ball in the first innings, but as the match goes on, expect spin to really dominate again.
It’s remarkable to think that in that recent series win over England, neither SAJID KHAN or Noman Ali were selected for the first game, but they certainly made up for lost time by claiming 19 and 20 wickets respectively in the next two Tests.
The pair complement each other very well, owing to their contrasting styles, and expect them to carry a heavy burden for Pakistan again.
Sajid is a right-arm off spinner who bowls quickly and drives the ball into the surface, attacking the stumps and looking to hurry the batsmen. He's real competitor, too. If there is little in the surface, like could be the case in the first innings, he’ll still keep attacking those stumps and ensure he remains a handful.
Noman is a completely different animal. A left-arm fingers spinner, Noman is much slower through the air, relying on guile and flight to get his wickets, and it’s hard to see him running through a side in the first innings.
What is the best bet?
That is borne out with a quick look at the numbers for those two games against England.
In the first innings of the Multan Test, Sajid returned figures of 7-111, compared to Noman’s 3-103. But in the second innings, Noman took eight wickets to Sajid’s two.
In the third Test in Rawalpindi, Sajid again dominated in the first innings, taking 6-128, as Noman returned 3-88. In the second innings, it was 6-42 for Noman as Sajid claimed 4-69.
It’s a relatively small sample size of course, but one I’m prepared to put plenty of weight behind given likely conditions this week, and I’ll be backing SAJID KHAN FOR TOP PAKISTAN FIRST INNINGS BOWLER at 12/5.
Expect him to be Pakistan's key weapon with the ball on the first few days at least.
Posted at 1600 GMT on 15/01/25
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