Cricket betting tips: Pakistan v England third Test preview and best bets for Rawalpindi
Richard Mann bagged 20/1 and 6/1 winners in his previews of the first two Tests between Pakistan and England – check out his third Test preview here.
Cricket betting tips: England v Pakistan
2pts Jack Leach to take five or more match wickets at 4/6 (bet365)
1pt Jack Leach top first innings England bowler at 11/4 (Sky Bet)
1pt Jack Leach to take five or more first innings wickets at 7/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
It doesn’t take much for a Test cricket badger like me to get carried away and even bring out the old classic, but last week gave us another excuse to say, ‘how good is Test cricket?!'
On Sunday, New Zealand finally put India away following a quite brilliant Test match in Bengaluru, that after India had briefly threatened to pull off a comeback for the ages despite having been bowled out for only 46 in their first innings.
And in England’s ongoing series with Pakistan, the hosts set up a winner-takes-all finale in Rawalpindi on Thursday by winning the second of two Tests in Multan after another thoroughly absorbing tussle.
There really is nothing that can match the longer format, and Multan II was made even more fascinating by the fact Pakistan opted to use the very same pitch on which they had been heavily beaten in the opening match of the series, only this time, the surface was more tired, worn and very dry, and the result different.
Pakistan set to bet on spin again
Pakistan bet the house on spin, and to some extent the toss, in Multan and hit the jackpot, so it seems safe to assume home captain Shan Masood will be keen for a pitch with similar characteristics in Rawalpindi. Given England’s superior pace attack, that would make sense.
Masood wasn’t the only one to gamble on spin in Multan, and our pre-match play on Sajid Khan at 20/1 for Man of the Match honours was rewarded. The energetic Sajid is sure to be a factor again, with all the noises coming out of Rawalpindi that the hosts have requested a dry pitch which will spin.
With that in mind, England may be tempted to find room for a third spinner in their XI in the shape of Rehan Ahmed. Such a move would make sense, possibly at the expense of Matthew Potts, if Ben Stokes can get through more overs of pace than he managed last week.
Traditionally, this ground has been a great place to bat and bet big runs. Those who follow the Pakistan Super League will know about this only too well, and when these two sides played a Test match here in late 2022, England posted 657 batting first before Pakistan responded with 579.
More recently, it wasn’t quite the same run-fest when Bangladesh beat Pakistan here last month – with 300 not breached once – though the visitors chased down 185 comfortably in the fourth innings. However, in the previous Test played on the same ground a week earlier, Pakistan were made to rue declaring on 448-6 in the first innings, as Bangladesh took control of the contest by then posting 565.
With all that in mind, I’ve spent the days since the second Test wondering just how Pakistan would be able to turn a usually fine batting surface – one which will have had most of the work put into it in the last few weeks – in only a matter of days. This wasn’t the plan even two weeks ago.
While returning to a recently used pitch appears out of the question, there are clear signs the curator has been instructed to make the surface as dry as possible. As seen in the embedded tweet, three heaters have been used to help the scorching Pakistan sun dry out the pitch. As for live grass – forget it.
My best guess at this stage would a pretty decent Rawalpindi batting surface, but not the extreme flat track we are used to seeing here in the first few days, before the dry nature of the surface really bites and the pitch deteriorates rapidly.
Pretty standard stuff for the subcontinent, really, though I do hope this isn’t another win the toss, win the match scenario. Last week was great fun to watch, and England had their chances to win the game, but there is no denying the toss, and being able to bowl last, had a huge bearing on the result. That shouldn’t be the norm.
Leach to lead the way for England
For now, it would seem a fair assumption that once again, there won’t be a great deal of help for the seamers, with Pakistan’s strategy of fielding just one quick bowler in Multan likely to be repeated. Even if the pitch doesn’t immediately turn big, the surface will still be dry and in such hot temperatures, the spinners will be expected to do the bulk of the work.
That means JACK LEACH will again be England’s key man with the ball, the Somerset man winning the top England bowler market in the first three innings of the tour, before just missing out when picking up another three wickets in Pakistan’s second innings last week.
Leach has made an excellent return to the England side, quickly demonstrating that when fit, he is the number one red-ball spinner in the country. He is currently the leading wicket-taker in the series with 14 wickets at an average of 26.50.
It is also worth noting that he has delivered far more overs than any other bowler in the series, clocking up 102.2 overs so far, compared to next best Shoaib Bashir who has picked up six wickets from his 85.0 overs. England are leaning on Leach heavily, more so now close friend Stokes has returned as captain, and whether it’s in the first innings or second, it’s clear he is going to have a big role to play again.
As such, I’m strong on backing LEACH TO TAKE FIVE OR MORE WICKETS IN THE MATCH, which is available at 4/6 with bet365. That looks solid business, for all I’m very rarely keen on playing at odds-on.
Admittedly, there will be some reading these pages unable to bet with Denise, but there are a few other ways to get with Leach, namely in the top ENGLAND FIRST INNINGS BOWLER market, and also to take a FIVE-WICKET HAUL IN THE FIRST INNINGS.
Ordinarily, I’m wary of betting spinners in this market in the first innings of Test matches, more so in England, but in these conditions and given how Leach has been front and centre of England’s attack so far, I can make an expectation.
I must stress that backing Leach in this market with a bookmaker settling a tie with dead-heat rules is an absolute must. Paddy Power and Betfair Sportsbook are actually top price on Leach at 16/5, but given how many more overs Leach will likely bowl than the seamers, and thus being sure to concede more runs, I don’t want the risk of losing out on runs conceded in the event of a tie.
The 11/4 available with Sky Bet is still perfectly fair, and I can’t resist a few quid on a Leach first innings five-wicket haul. The 7/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes is just too big to turn down.
Posted at 1230 BST on 21/10/24
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