Two hundreds in the match for Steve Smith

Steve Smith has a fine record in India

Cricket betting tips: India v Australia Test series preview and best bets

By Richard Mann

Cricket

Thu February 09, 2023 · 2y ago

India and Australia begin a huge four-match Test series in Nagpur on Thursday morning, and Richard Mann has two strong fancies in his in-depth preview.

Cricket tips: India v Australia Test series

3pts Ravi Ashwin top India series bowler at 17/10 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)

3pts Steve Smith top Australia series batsman at 13/5 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

One of Test cricket’s fiercest rivalries resumes on Thursday, when India and Australia kick off a four-match series in Nagpur.

India remains the final frontier for every Test nation and not since Ricky Ponting’s great team – perhaps the greatest of all time – won here back in 2004, have Australia conquered India. And they aren’t alone.

India have recent edge over visiting Australia

England and New Zealand have been well beaten on these shores in recent times, and though Australia would appear better equipped to cope with Indian conditions and a terrific and well-balanced home side, a tough few weeks await the tourists.

One factor in Australia's favour is that they won in Pakistan last year, ending a hard-fought, high-scoring series with a 1-0 victory. That result was built on big first-innings runs, Usman Khawaja in particular enjoying a terrific series at the top of the order, and pacers Pat Cummins and Mitchell Starc wreaking havoc with the old ball.

England toppled Pakistan in a similar way more recently, though Australia made their runs in a more traditional and conservative manner. Reverse swing, though, was key to success with the ball.

The difference here is that the pitches in Pakistan were devilishly flat and the hosts didn’t have high-class spin to call upon, meaning runs were relatively easy to make. I don’t envisage that being the case in India.

Pat Cummins leads Australia into their biggest challenge yet

As the last meeting between those two sides illustrated, when India won 2-1 in Australia in early 2021, there is little love lost between them and just as England found out on their last trip, the hosts will be happy to serve up conditions to suit themselves, rather than create a level playing field.

Ashwin set to make hay against left-handers

That means we can expect plenty of turning pitches from the outset, and with RAVI ASHWIN leading the home attack, only the strongest will survive.

Ashwin’s record is quite remarkable, and while he is flattered somewhat by India beginning to accept his limitations away from home, he is almost impossible to stop on home turf. Ashwin has 312 wickets from 51 home Tests at an average of 21.16, compared to 133 scalps from 36 away Tests at 32.06.

In 2022, the schedule meant Ashwin could only play two Tests on home soil, but he still picked up 12 wickets, while in 2022 he featured in six home Tests and took a staggering 46 wickets. At home, Ashwin is very much king.

Another huge negative for Australia, and a big pointer towards betting Ashwin, is that the tourists are likely to field four left-handers in their top seven, with Khawaja and David Warner certain to open the batting.

Facing Ashwin in spinning conditions is never easy, more so for left-handers against whom he boasts a phenomenal record, but it can be even harder with the new ball, and I’m sure we’ll see plenty of that in this series. Those Australia left-handers will be toast.

Ravi Ashwin

It’s Ashwin’s liking for left-handers that suggests he’s the Indian spinner to be with throughout, preferred over Axar Patel and Ravi Jadeja, and though not taking any chances, 17/10 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook) is very fair about Ashwin to finish the series as Indian’s leading wicket-taker.

As other firms begin to price this market up, anything above 6/4 rates a solid, if unoriginal, investment.

Smith back on song and worth a bet

Ashwin’s penchant for bowling at left-handers leads me onto another series bet, with STEVE SMITH readily preferred for top Australia series batsman at 13/5.

I wouldn’t touch the left-handers in the Australian line-up with free money, and though Marnus Labuschagne is a formidable opponent in this market and actually outscored Smith in last winter’s Ashes, it was Smith who came out on top in the recent series win over South Africa.

It’s not so long ago that Smith was the number one Test batsman in the world and following a slightly quieter period, he’s looked right back to his best in recent months. Two brilliant back-to-back hundreds in the Big Bash demonstrate that, and Smith has experience and big numbers behind him in India – averaging 60 from six Test matches with three hundreds.

Steve Smith in Ashes action

Labuschagne hasn’t toured India before, and though he has made runs in Sri Lanka, he didn’t really fire in Pakistan. That’s not to say he doesn’t play spin well – he does – but perhaps not as well as Smith, and he doesn’t have the experience of these conditions that Smith does.

I’ve got this down as a match and as such, am very keen to take 13/5 about Smith.

Go low on Australia runs

Precisely what sort of conditions we get first up in Nagpur isn’t easy to predict. The last Test match played on this ground was in late 2017 when India amassed 610-6 declared in their sole innings, but Sri Lanka were bowled out twice, for 205 and 166.

That sort of scoreline might well be replicated across this series and while I expect Australia to fight hard – and it mustn't be forgotten how well they have played in this format since winning the Ashes last winter – they will likely be outmatched in these conditions.

We’ll take another look ahead of the second Test, but for now my focus is on the series side markets, with one eye on selling Australia innings runs should the line ever hover around 400 this week.

The Australian left-handers in particular could be in for a very rough ride.

Preview posted at 1250 GMT on 07/02/2023