Cricket betting tips: England v India T20 World Cup semi-final preview and best bets
Richard Mann previews England's T20 World Cup semi-final against India, which takes place in Adelaide on Thursday morning.
Cricket tips: ICC T20 World Cup England v India
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This might have been the final many expected, only for England to very nearly fluff their lines and find themselves needing to come through a nervy run chase against Sri Lanka to qualify for the semi-finals courtesy of a second place finish in Group 1.
A humbling defeat to Ireland prior to that illustrates that this England team does have its flaws, though India looked far from bombproof when beaten by South Africa in Perth, and when very nearly losing to Pakistan and Bangladesh.
But there is a big difference from group matches to knockout matches, and what both of these sides posses is big-match performers who have built careers on doing the business when the stakes are high.
Big guns step up when the stakes are high
We saw that with Ben Stokes against Sri Lanka, the all-rounder belying his poor form and a steady flow of wickets around him to marshal England's faltering run chase and haul his side over the winning line.
Cometh the hour, cometh the man and all that.
Virat Kohli was under similar pressure when this World Cup began, but his brilliant, unbeaten 82 against Pakistan underlined the point about big-match performers, and we have seen it from KL Rahul in the last two matches, also from experienced heads Bhuvneshwar Kumar and Mohammed Shami with the ball.
In finding some form as the competition has developed, Adil Rashid and Alex Hales have done something similar for England, but where India would appear to hold the advantage is in the younger players in their XI.
Sam Curran has been brilliant with the ball for England, but Harry Brook has yet to make an impact, Phil Salt might well be asked to make his first appearance at the World Cup in a semi-final, if Dawid Malan is ruled out through injury, while Liam Livingstone has so far flattered to deceive.
Even the more experienced Moeen Ali and Chris Woakes have largely struggled.
Contrast that to India and it's easy to see why Rohit Sharma's side are clear outright favourites. Rohit's own form and the debate around whether Rishabh Pant's recall should be permanent are the only concerns India have.
Indian young guns too hot to handle
Suryakumar Yadav is already hurtling towards player of the tournament territory following three glorious half-centuries in five matches at a staggering strike-rate of 193.96.
It will be him or Kohli who finishes as the tournament's top runscorer on Sunday.
Then you throw Hardik Pandya into the mix, the batting all-rounder who has touched 90mph with the ball, picking up eight wickets and providing priceless balance to this India side.
With 10 wickets and counting, Arshdeep Singh might still finish as the leading wicket-taker in the competition.
What a double that would be for India if Yadav and Arshdeep were to pick up those respective accolades – two men who were barely in the international frame a year or so ago. For them, and the fit-again Pandya, their time appears to be now.
And that is where we are, with India appearing to hold most of the trump cards for the rest of the tournament, and ahead of a semi-final in Adelaide which will be played on a wicket that has been used three times in the competition already.
Classy India have all bases covered
India's XI boasts the heaviest runscorers of the World Cup, a bowling attack that has been more potent than England's throughout, and features any number of big-match players who have form and pedigree on their side.
I have read in recent days that this match being played in Adelaide tilts the pendulum in England's favour, given that the short boundaries square of the ground here could help England's aggressive batting line-up take down India's spinners.
But while not ideal for either side, one has to think that India will be the happier of the two camps if the pitch is worn and slow, and takes plenty of spin.
If those fears prove to be unfounded, it also will be worth remembering that it has been India's seamers who have done the bulk of the damage for them so far in the competition. In fact, Indian's pacers have taken 28 wickets at this World Cup, the spinners only nine.
It's false to assume that India will view spin as their only path to victory here. They have all bases covered.
Furthermore, India's top order is more touch than brawn – see Kohli and Rahul versus Buttler and Hales – so I don't believe that England will be better suited to shorter boundaries. In fact, many observers often criticise the IPL for some of the small grounds featured in that competition, and India's top order ought to be right at home in Adelaide.
India still value in the outright betting
From every angle, India look to have most boxes ticked and while the possibility of England winning the toss, batting first and their powerful line-up making a big score in the best of conditions means they are always to be respected, hoping for such a scenario doesn't mean Buttler's side are a bet at evens.
I'm already with India at 7/2, tipped up in my outright preview, but those not already involved would probably be wise to take anything close to the 9/4 currently on offer about the men in blue.
Whoever of New Zealand and Pakistan progresses to the final will start as outsiders, with the winner of this semi-final likely to be chalked up at 4/6 for the final, possibly even shorter.
If, like me, you expect India to make it through, taking them in the outright market now appeals as the best way to go from here.
Preview posted at 1000 BST (09/11/2022)
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