Cricket betting tips: England v Australia Ashes third Test preview and best bets for Headingley
The Ashes series continues at a breakneck pace, with the third Test getting under way in Leeds on Thursday – Richard Mann previews the action.
Cricket tips: Third Ashes Test, England v Australia
2pts Steve Smith top Australia first innings batsman at 3/1 (Star Sports)
2pts Usman Khawaja under 31.5 first innings runs at 5/6 (Betway)
2pts Travis Head under 33.5 first innings runs at 10/11 (Sky Bet)
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Smith Australia Most Runs, Head & Khawaja Both Under 30 Runs Each All 1st Inns
As Lord’s security staff still try to dust off their riot gear, this summer’s Ashes series moves quickly on to Headingley, host of so many famous Ashes moments and a venue that is sure to give the Australian team a hostile, northern welcome on Thursday.
Australia lead the series 2-0 after just about finishing the job on the fifth day at Lord’s, but only after controversy marred another thrilling finale, and Ben Stokes went on a solo rampage that was reminiscent of his Headingley heroics against Australia four years ago.
On this occasion, Stokes couldn’t quite carry his side to victory, but as if the series needed a further injection of spice, Sunday gave us just that and England can expect passionate home support in Leeds as they try to force their way back into a series that though apparently slipping from their grasp, has seen them push the best team in the world hard throughout in an absorbing contest thus far.
England capable of Headingley comeback
In fact, England could easily be leading 2-0 themselves had they been a little more ruthless at crucial junctures and their middle order shown more maturity when it was needed. Nevertheless, this remains a close fight between two talented sides and England can certainly hit back in Leeds if they make improvements in certain areas.
Their Bazball approach came in for plenty of criticism last week, but more frustrating is the selection choices England have made this summer. I still disagree with the decision to bring Moeen Ali out of retirement and he could have his work cut out in Leeds on a surface that rarely spins, while only a refusal to accept they got things wrong initially can be the reason why Ben Foakes hasn’t been recalled to return as wicket-keeper.
England’s bowling attack has so far struggled for penetration and the last thing it needs is Jonny Bairstow’s butter fingers to keep letting them down. Nevertheless, Foakes won’t be playing at Headingley, nor will Bairstow move back up the order like he really should. Instead, Dan Lawrence is the only possible change to the batting if Ollie Pope doesn’t recover from the shoulder injury he picked up at Lord’s. That might not be a bad thing for England.
The bowling will be much different, with Moeen and Mark Wood expected to return alongside the impressive Josh Tongue. Two of James Anderson, Ollie Robinson and Stuart Broad are likely to miss out. Broad has been England’s best performer so far this summer and given the atmosphere we can expect at Headingley, England will surely want this great entertainer and fearsome Ashes competitor in their ranks for a must-win Test.
Despite moving within one victory of wrapping up the series, I don’t think everything is rosy in the Australia camp, either. Nathan Lyon’s loss will be keenly felt when the circus moves to Old Trafford and the Oval, for all Todd Murphy is a young spinner of real potential, while their batting does have some concerns.
Cracks appear in Australia batting
Marnus Labuschagne hasn’t fired as expected, and he isn’t lining Broad up well at all, while Travis Head doesn’t look comfortable against the short ball. If Wood is fit for Leeds and England go short and fast early in his innings, the Australian could be in big trouble. As good as Usman Khawaja has been, England have dropped him numerous times throughout the series and I have a strong feeling that a quiet game is just around the corner for him if England can start holding their catches.
With that in mind, I’ll be playing unders on both men in Leeds. Regular readers of these pages will know I’m a big advocate of betting runs at Headingley, particularly in one-day cricket, but if the clouds roll in the ball can still do plenty. We saw that in 2019 when both teams were dismissed cheaply in the first innings, before big runs followed later in the match, finishing with Stokes’ epic run chase.
As such, I’ll be keeping a close eye on the weather for in-play purposes, but in the case of Khawaja, he’ll still have to face up to the new ball, and it’s worth remembering that he was dropped early in both innings at Lord’s, and that Bairstow and Joe Root failed to react to an outside edge off the bowling of Anderson in the second innings at Edgbaston when he should've been snaffled up.
I’ve watched a lot of Khawaja this summer and defy anyone to dispute that he’s had a lot of luck. Perhaps he’s deserved it, but that won’t last forever and the number of times he played and missed at Lord’s suggests a low score is incoming. Playing UNDER 31.5 FIRST INNINGS RUNS FOR USMAN KHAWAJA at 5/6 (Betway) makes perfect sense.
Head is another with whom I’m not factoring conditions into the equation. Where England and India before them have gone wrong this summer is that they’ve turned to the short stuff after Head has got going and found some rhythm. But when they went at him early with the short ball last week, he was out cheaply fending to short leg in the second innings.
Given we saw so much short-pitched bowling at Lord’s, Head can expect to smell leather as soon as he makes his way to the crease in Leeds and if Wood is sending down rockets at 95mph, I don’t give the left-hander much hope. I’ll be playing UNDER 33.5 FIRST INNINGS RUNS FOR TRAVIS HEAD at 10/11 with Sky Bet.
When you throw Labuschagne’s patchy form into the mix, and David Warner’s constant tinkering with his guard and technique, STEVE SMITH really does look the obvious choice in the TOP AUSTRALIA BATSMAN market at 3/1 (Star Sports).
Smith the standout for all conditions
Perhaps we’re in danger of chasing our tails a little bit here, having backed Smith for a century at Edgbaston, only for him to fail there and then cruise to three figures at Lord’s. But the thing about these long series is that you can get a feel for players’ form and see how certain battles are developing. I see a few cracks appearing in Australia’s batting – for all they don’t have as many worries as England – but not in Smith, who looks very solid.
His game was clearly in fine working order in the first innings at Lord’s after a quiet match in Birmingham and it was a real surprise to see him out hooking in the second innings. If that tactic is to become a theme of the series, I don’t envisage Smith falling into the trap of holing out too often. Smith’s patience is unrivalled and I think his dismissal to the short ball last week will prove an anomaly in his series.
Star Sports dangle the carrot at 3/1 for Smith and I think that’s big enough to warrant a bet, especially when you factor in that he's best-equipped of the away batsmen to be successful if the clouds do roll in and batting becomes more difficult. The 11/4 generally available is also fine.
Having made the case for England to be optimistic, particularly around Australia’s batting, I must make it clear that I can’t advise a bet on the hosts at this stage, more on tactical and selection grounds than any frailties in the away camp. I do think England can win in Leeds, we’ve seen that in the first two games, but I just don’t yet have enough faith in their selection or tactical decisions to make me want to strike a bet at 13/8.
And when I talk about tactics, I don’t mean Bazball. I’ve no issue with England’s attacking approach with the bat and I think we saw them pick their moments to attack much better later in the match at Lord’s. The decision to concentrate on a short-ball method of attack with the ball worked, too, and Stokes showed the way with the bat, soaking up pressure when he needed and then picking his bowlers to take down.
But did Bairstow’s controversial dismissal highlight naivety in this England team? It was dozy batting. And Ollie Pope’s dismissal in the first innings was poor game management. Australia were on their knees at that stage, with Nathan Lyon having limped off the ground, and Pope only needed to soak up half an hour or so of short stuff for Australia’s then thinned out bowling attack to have been forced to change their hand again.
It's these moments that England need to grasp and win, and it’s where Australia have been smarter and tougher. Like I’ve said already, England can win in Leeds, but some of their players need to wake up, switch on and start making better decisions in big moments. Freedom and empowerment is all well and good, but it must come with responsibility.
Preview posted at 1115 BST on 03/07/23
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