Aiden Markram is a key man for South Africa

Cricket betting tips: 2023 ICC Cricket World Cup preview and best bets

By Richard Mann

Cricket

Sat October 07, 2023 · 1y ago

Richard Mann provides his outright preview and best bets for the 2023 ICC Cricket World Cup, with selections ranging from 12/1 to 9/5.

Cricket betting tips: 2023 ICC Cricket World Cup

1pt South Africa to win the Cricket World Cup at 10/1 (General)

2pts South Africa to finish in the Top 4 at 9/5 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)

1pt Bangladesh to finish bottom at 12/1 (General)

1pt Bangladesh to have the lowest team score at 12/1 (bet365)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

In many ways, limited-overs cricket is barely recognisable from the sport it was when the World Cup was last held in India back in 2011, and to win its most coveted prize 12 years on will require quality from top to bottom, with variety, a big dose of class and an abundance of match-winners. Above all else, it will need a brave, aggressive outlook, a side prepared to push the boundaries and potentially take the game where it hasn’t been before.

In India, four teams would appear to realistically fit the bill, but the market has missed very little at the top of the betting, leaving SOUTH AFRICA as the standout remaining value at 10/1.

The format of the tournament, which is made of one group from which each of the 10 teams play each other once, before the top four progress to the semi-finals, means the likelihood of the best teams contesting the latter stages is extremely high. We may see a shock or two along the way, but the tournament is set up to allow margin for error for the big teams, thus ensuring the ICC gets the most marketable knockout matches.

That means it's very hard to picture a semi-final line-up without India and England, but South Africa are firmly in that bracket, too, and they have the tools to win six of their nine group games, which will probably be needed to reach the latter stages – from which point they would be an intimidating proposition for anyone.

South Africa bid to lay World Cup ghosts to bed

It goes without saying that there are drawbacks to backing South Africa to win an ICC event. Despite their rich history and the many great players to have worn the green Proteas jersey, South Africa are still to win a 50-over World Cup, or a T20 one for that matter, and they've had many fine chances along the way.

The dramatic loss to Australia in the 1999 semi-finals is the one most remember, but they lost another close match to New Zealand in 2015, again in the semi-finals, and were then knocked out of last year’s T20 World Cup by the Netherlands having looked the best team on show earlier in the competition.

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South Africa won’t be able to lose the ‘chokers’ tag until they win a big knockout match at an ICC event, or indeed win a major tournament, though I was happy to overlook their chequered knockout history in Australia last year, only for them to spurn a really good shot at T20 World Cup glory.

But just as I argued then, I will argue now that this South African team is different from the ones that have come before. They have a captain in Temba Bavuma who has already defied the critics to keep his place in the team on merit – averaging 79.62 in 10 matches in this format in 2023 – and an opening partner for him in Quinton de Kock who has always played the game with a fearless freedom that means wilting under pressure has rarely been an issue.

Having such a strong character in Rassie van der Dussen at number three feels like a really good fit, because after him comes the class of Aiden Markram – Man of the Series in the recent 3-2 win over Australia – followed by the peerless power of Heinrich Klaasen and David Miller. Klaasen and Miller combined for a partnership of 222 in only 15 overs against Australia recently, the former blasting 174 from 83 balls to confirm his status as one of the most destructive middle order batsmen in the game at present.

The powerful right hander took this year’s Indian Premier League by storm, and then The Hundred, and I don’t think there is a better middle order trio in world cricket than Markram, Klaasen and Miller. If de Kock can get South Africa off to some fast starts, I’d expect big scores to come from this intimidating line-up.

The development of the likes of Bavuma and Klaasen in particular is part of the reason for South Africa’s improved batting returns of late, but as much as anything, it’s a change in approach that makes this such a dangerous outfit. Those past knockout defeats were often typified by timid batting – think the 2011 World Cup collapse against New Zealand – but this South Africa line-up doesn’t play that way.

Heinrich Klaasen jumps for joy

De Kock has always attacked from ball one, in the last year Markram has struck at 119.70 in this format, Klaasen 151.43 in the same period. Miller is an expert finisher and there is batting depth down the order from Marco Jansen. Fuelled by their vast experience in franchise cricket, namely the IPL, this group has taken an approach not too dissimilar to the one England adopted when Eoin Morgan was tasked with reviving their fortunes after the 2015 World Cup.

Proteas braced to attack, but Rabada must fire

England set the benchmark in the build-up to the 2019 World Cup, playing more aggressive cricket than anyone else, packing their batting with power and backing those players to excel. They broke new ground by amassing big total after big total, chasing down 300-plus regularly. While not with anything like the same level of dominance, the recent five-match ODI series played between South Africa and Australia reminded me of that, and the Proteas finished brilliantly to win it.

The series was a terrific one and the cricket played was how I’d imagine the big matches in India will be fought out, with aggressive, deep batting line-ups scoring lots of boundaries and making huge totals. Having lost the first two matches, South Africa then reeled off scores of 338-6, 416-5 and 315-5. It was brutal stuff, and just the type of cricket that will be needed to take down an India or England.

The other telling factor in those last three matches was how South Africa’s attack held up on some flat pitches. The injury to paceman Anrich Nortje is a big loss and they will miss him, but spinners Keshav Maharaj and Tabraiz Shamsi, who complement each other well, took plenty of wickets, as did the seamers. Jansen, Kagiso Rababa and Lungi Ngidi all shone at different stages, suggesting the bowling attack is coming together nicely. Rabada is a man for the big occasion and with Nortje absent, expect the former to stand up.

Just as aggressive batting and big runs will be a necessity, a strong, well-rounded bowling attack will be crucial. India is just coming out of the rainy season with the ground staff having been afforded plenty of time to ensure the wickets across the country are good for batting, and as we saw in this year’s IPL, it could be tough work for the bowlers.

While spin is sure to have a say, and we will of course see the odd tough wicket to bat on, on the whole I’m anticipating the going to be good for batting and thus a strong pace and spin attack to negate that is a must, as is a powerful, brave batting line-up that takes risks in order to score big. This World Cup won’t be won by a shrinking violet.

Cricket World Cup team-by-team guide

Should, as expected, they reach the semi-finals, South Africa’s approach should stand them in really good stead and unlike in previous years, I believe they could become an even more dangerous animal in the knockout stages. In a renewal where each of the leading contenders comes with certain drawbacks, South Africa look a spot of value at 10/1, while the 9/5 available for a top-four finish is must-bet material.

I wouldn’t be at all surprised were that aforementioned series in South Africa to prove a key piece of form in the coming weeks, and but for a few injury concerns, Australia would have been considered more seriously.

Fearless Australia battle injury woes

Their World Cup pedigree needs no introduction and ever since the midpoint of the 2021 T20 World Cup in the UAE, which they eventually won, Australia have adopted a fearless approach to white-ball batting that I am convinced will be needed in India.

One of the driving forces behind that has been Mitchell Marsh, a man who is full of confidence following a golden run across all three formats. He and David Warner will be tasked with providing the early fireworks with the bat, but Travis Head will miss the early part of the tournament with a broken hand, meaning Marsh will begin opening the batting.

That shouldn’t be a big problem, and he made a good 96 against India in the last match of a lost series against India in recent days. The issue is that Marsh moving up to open means that Australia may find themselves fielding Steve Smith and Marnus Labuschagne in the same team, and while both are excellent players, having two accumulators in the middle order has the potential to hold Australia back.

After that, it’s hard to know what to expect from Marcus Stoinis should he be tasked with playing the finisher role, having struggled for consistency over the past 12 months. With Glenn Maxwell returning from injury, and the timing of Head’s return to fitness hard to be sure about, there have to be some concerns about the batting.

Pat Cummins is fit again to lead Australia

The bowling took a mauling in South Africa, too, and though captain Pat Cummins and Mitchell Starc will greatly strengthen that department, they are two more players working their back way to full fitness following injuries.

England hard to ignore ahead of defence

England appear more settled and finished the summer with a resounding series success over New Zealand. The defending champions look to be coming nicely to the boil now and with the controversy surrounding Harry Brook’s initial non-selection, before he was then finally included over Jason Roy, now done and dusted, this looks a pretty settled camp.

Jonny Bairstow and Dawid Malan are a good opening pair, while I’m firmly in favour of Ben Stokes’ return. With Root and Stokes at three and four, England have class and experience in equal measure in those positions, and also two calm heads under pressure who know how to win in big moments.

Buttler comes next, so the top five is particularly strong, but thereafter I’d have more concerns. How reliable we can expect Mooen Ali to be nowadays is open to question, while Liam Livingstone’s career to date has been as inconsistent as he can be explosive. That doesn’t mean the pair won’t be dangerous, but if they lose early wickets, one senses England do have a really bad day in them.

The caveat is that we know just how good this England team is when it comes to the business end of tournaments. We saw as much in 2019 when they hammered Australia in the semi-finals and then held their nerve in the Super Over in the final against New Zealand. In last year’s T20 World Cup, England started slowly but came alive in the knockout stages.

Still, the bowling doesn’t look as strong as four years ago. Jofra Archer is only a travelling reserve this time following a spate of injuries, both Reece Topley and Mark Wood are fragile, and Adil Rashid has been nursed along in recent weeks following a longstanding shoulder issue. In a long tournament, England’s bowling attack isn’t bombproof by any means.

Nonetheless, England remain a very fine white-ball, tournament team and if they bring their A-game to the semi-finals and beyond, they are more than capable of winning back-to-back world cups.

Cricket World Cup under the radar players

As 10/3 and 9/2, England and Australia look priced about right to me, as do India at 9/4, for all the hosts will likely shorten further when the semi-finals come around.

India warm favourites on home turf

Everything appears in place for India to go all the way, just as they did when winning on home soil back in 2011. Rohit Sharma is an astute captain who tops a brilliant batting line-up, one which features Shubman Gill, entering his maiden World Cup on the back of a fruitful 2023, plus Virat Kohli and deadly finisher Hardik Pandya.

Ravindra Jadeja and Ravi Ashwin ensure spin is covered with the ball, while the brilliant Jasprit Bumrah is fit again and could link up with Mohammed Siraj to form a potent new-ball partnership. Siraj has been a revelation in the last 12 months and his ability to make early breakthroughs could prove vital.

Recent form isn’t a concern for India, having followed their impressive Asia Cup success with a series win over Australia, but though it’s almost impossible to envisage India not making the last four, it’s at that point Rohit and his team will face their acid test.

One of the mantras of Rohit’s captaincy has been aggressive, fearless batting. For too long have India opted for safety first, keeping wickets in hand before expecting too many runs to come at the death. It’s an outdated approach in good batting conditions and one that has held India back.

At the Asia Cup, India batted with freedom and posted 356-2 against a strong Pakistan attack, before going on to make 399-5 in a recent match against Australia. It would appear that the lessons of the past have been learned, but we thought that last year until they reverted to type in their T20 World Cup semi-final against England, posting 168-6 on a flat pitch in Adelaide when batting first, before England raced to their victory target in just 16 overs.

And that is the big question. When the knockout matches come around, can Rohit and Kohli block out the outside noise and the extreme pressures that weigh on Indian cricketers playing a World Cup at home? Can they do all that and tread the fine line that separates aggression and recklessness.

What you consider those concerns, and the fact that India’s bowling was found wanting in the T20 World Cup without the injured Bumrah, who has barely played in the last year and is not guaranteed to get through the tournament, then there have to be reservations about taking 9/4. There are for me, anyway.

Glenn Phillips has quickly become New Zealand's main man

Elsewhere, I fear that this tournament will be a step too far for New Zealand, beaten World Cup finalists the last twice and lining up with what could prove to be a solid, but potentially slow top three. The middle order is strong with Daryl Mitchell and Glenn Phillips in there, but the Kiwis looked out of their comfort zone when England pushed the boundaries in their recent series, and I suspect a high-scoring World Cup wouldn’t suit this team well.

Even with a late injury to Naseem Shah, Pakistan boast a terrific pace attack, led by the excellent Shaheen Afridi and also featuring the genuinely quick Haris Rauf. Hasan Ali has replaced Naseem in the squad, once again underlining the depth in the Pakistan pace stocks.

Spin is more of a concern, however. Pakistan have struggled to regularly pick up wickets in the middle overs for a while now and if Shaheen can’t strike with the new ball, Pakistan could find themselves on the back foot in the field.

Pakistan look very short at 7/1, and though the batting has plenty of quality within its ranks, it stands to reason that Babar Azam and Mohammad Rizwan will need to enjoy brilliant tournaments for their team to go close to winning the competition. Babar averaged over 50 at the Asia Cup and Pakistan still failed to make the final.

Bangladesh backed for wooden spoon

Away from the outright market, the Netherlands are widely expected to finish bottom of the table. Quotes ranging from 1/4 and 1/9 demonstrate that, but I don’t think it’s as clearcut as those odds suggest. The Dutch performed admirably at the T20 World Cup in Australia and will hope they can spring the odd surprise along the way in India.

Regardless of how the Netherlands go, I’m expecting very little from BANGLADESH and on price grounds, can’t let them go unbacked to finish bottom at 12/1.

CLICK HERE to back Bangladesh to finish bottom with Sky Bet

Bangladesh look every inch a team in decline, with old stagers like Shakib Al Hasan still carrying much of the burden, and away from home, where heavy spin is their trump card, they have tended to struggle.

Barring the odd exception, the next generation just hasn’t been able to take the team forward, or more accurately, halt its decline, and this World Cup has the look of a step too far for many of the old stagers, and a rude awakening for the younger players.

The recent Asia Cup offered some encouragement, but since then their build-up has been marred by a delayed squad announcement and a public spat between captain, Shakib, and former captain, Tamim Iqbal. The latter won’t be part of the squad in India now, but his absence will have divided opinion inside and outside the dressing room and the situation is far from ideal ahead of a World Cup.

Starting against Afghanistan presents Shakib and his team with an opportunity to put all that behind them with a win, but after that Bangladesh face a tough run of matches before meeting the Netherlands. The wheels might well have fallen off by then.

With Bangladesh widely available at 12/1 to finish bottom, I’m happy to roll the dice, while 12/1 for them to post the lowest score in the tournament also appeals given the number of middle and lower order collapses they suffered at the Asia Cup.

Balancing the side has been a real issue for Bangladesh in recent months and should they go into any of the matches a batter light, and then lose early wickets, the lower order is unlikely to offer much resistance and we could be in business.

Preview published at 1720 BST on 01/10/2023

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