Professional gambler Paul Krishnamurty is back with his latest betting masterclass ahead of the Cricket World Cup, which includes a strong fancy in the outright market.
Earlier this summer, I argued that cricket was the ideal sport for betting and trading, due to its fundamentally volatile nature. That certainly proved the case in the Ashes, with each match producing big turnarounds either regarding the result or the innings runs totals. Will it prove the same at the World Cup?
Beware drawing the same conclusions. Of the three cricket formats, 50 over matches are by far the least volatile. Indeed, so far as this tournament is concerned, the reverse is true. The last six World Cups were won by the pre-tournament favourite. Five by comfortable margins in the final.
The last three were won by the host nation and once again, the market leader will enjoy home advantage. That probably matters more in India than anywhere, with fanatical support guaranteed wherever they play and given the wider political culture.
Before analysing the teams, consider the format. 20 over competitions are bound to produce plenty of very close matches, because the short format means teams are rarely bowled out or reduced to weak batsmen. Most targets stay within range until very late in the match. Because test matches are played over five days, there is always a good chance to turn things around, to amend a poor start, or for conditions to change.
But in 50 over cricket, irreversible damage can be done very quickly. Often the toss is critical, because a clear advantage will be obvious from the weather or pitch conditions. This longer format also tends to accentuate the gulf in quality between teams, as indicated by those historic World Cup trends.
The last World Cup produced a memorably close finish, going to a Super Over, but that was in stark contrast to the rest of the competition. Of 44 completed matches, only three could be described as going to the death. The favourite won over 80% of matches and even the few clear upsets weren’t entirely unpredictable. Bangladesh beating distinctly ordinary South Africa and West Indies sides, for example.
Batting-friendly conditions are expected in India. Expect some very big first innings totals to prove completely unassailable, or sub-standard efforts to be easily chased down. Whereas in the other formats, following the old ‘back high, lay low’ maxim tends to pay, I doubt it will here.
In-play cricket betting strategy
Where that conventional cricket strategy should pay off is the innings runs markets. As ever, the run line is sure to rise as runs are accumulated, then fall sharply when a wicket falls. A good plan to profit from that fundamental dynamic is what we call ‘middling’.
The plan is to build a position between two run lines, where both an overs and unders bet land simultaneously. The risk is mitigated by one position either partially or wholly covering the risk of the other.
Start by betting odds against. So if the opening line is 300, trading around 2.0 or even money, either back over 320, or under 280. These should be trading around 2.9 or 1.55 respectively.
Next, we hope the market moves our way with lines above or below the one we have already bet trading at shorter odds than we took. At that stage, bet the other way and secure the middle. See the example below.
Back 320 or higher 4pts @ 2.9 (returns 11.6)
Lay 340 or higher 5pts @ 2.3 (returns 11.5)
Under 320 = 1pt profit
320-339 = 12.6pts profit
340 or higher = 1.1pt profit
Another way is to take a middle from the outset as a standalone bet, if considering it represents a value position. The following example equates to a 3.3 or a 23/10 chance.
Back 300 or higher 10pts @ 2.0 (returns 20pts)
Lay 340 or higher 4pts @ 5.0 (returns 20pts)
Under 300 = 6 units loss
300-339 = 14 units profit
340 or higher = 6 units loss
Paul Krishnamurty's World Cup prediction
So, what of the big prize? The format - all 10 teams play each other once in a league, with the top-four progressing - favours the formbook. The three outsiders have very little hope of progressing. Sri Lanka aren't entirely without hopes of doing so, but are up against it.
Of the remaining six, sub-continent conditions are less than ideal for Australia, New Zealand, South Africa and England. My worry is that their bowlers will struggle to contain scoring, which could prove decisive in very batting-friendly conditions.
South Africa might be the exception, boasting a squad strong with both bat and ball. However the usual worry that they always underperform in big championships applies.
As defending champions and the best white ball team of recent years, England certainly cannot be ruled out and do possess the required firepower. They have regressed in this format since 2019 and Eoin Morgan's captaincy, though.
Pakistan's squad does have all the credentials to thrive but their problem is very different - politics. This World Cup coincides with an Indian General Election campaign, dominated by their ultra-nationalist, populist Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Their neighbours and bitter enemies have already had their preparation interrupted in dubious fashion, with their visas delayed, forcing the cancellation of their training camp. I doubt too many Pakistan players are particularly relishing the next seven weeks.
Even disregarding political factors, India are worthy favourites. Such is the depth of talent, they could probably field three different XIs and be competitive. It is hard to identify a single weakness in their final squad.
The top order - Shubman Gill, Rohit Sharma, Virat Kohli, Shreyas Iyer, K.L. Rahul - is impeccable, and would all likely walk into any team. During their last series against Australia, and previously in winning the Asia Cup, all registered big scores. Ishan Kishan and Suryakumar Yadav (billed as the best limited overs batsman in the world just a few months ago) provide more than able back-up.
Expect that lot to register some very big totals and India are, for my money, better equipped to defend with the ball. In Jasprit Bumrah, Mohammed Shami and Mohammed Siraj, they boast three pacemen of the highest class. Ditto spinners Ravi Jadeja, Ravi Ashwin and Kuldeep Yadav. Plus Jadeja, Hardik Pandya and Shardul Thakur are all genuine all-rounders.
Also read: Richard Mann on Ben Stokes' return
- Click the image for full column
The Asia Cup demonstrated their clear superiority over sub-continent rivals. Pakistan were annihilated by 228 runs. Sri Lanka skittled for 50 in the final. It is almost impossible to envisage India not reaching the last-four, at which stage they will surely be heavy odds-on favourites to reach the final. The venue for that final? The Narendra Modi Stadium in Ahmedabad, Gujarat. The state where he was a popular, yet deeply controversial Chief Minister.
The outcome looks almost written in the stars, but of course sport is rarely so simple. The case against must note the overwhelming pressure on India to perform in front of a fanatical, expectant crowd. England are under no such pressure and certainly don't lack the pedigree to win again. Even assuming India make the semis, it wouldn’t take that much to see them trade higher than the opening 9/4 with a bad start in either match. For the patient, waiting may pay off.
Nevertheless if weighing the price one must ask whether India's chance of winning exceeds 30%. All the formbook indicators, whether historic or short-term, suggest it does.
- Paul Krishnamurty is a professional gambler, political analyst and journalist. Paul's special interests are cricket, politics, snooker and golf betting. Paul is a regular contributor for betting.betfair.com and appears weekly on the Cricket...Only Bettor podcast.
Related links
- Click here for Sky Bet's World Cup odds
- Cricket World Cup: Outright preview
- Cricket World Cup specials preview
- England v New Zealand preview
- Cricket World Cup: Team-by-team guide
- Paul Krishnamurty's cricket betting masterclass
- Cricket World Cup: Under the radar players
- Cricket Only Bettor World Cup podcast Part I
- Cricket Only Bettor World Cup podcast Part II
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