Dave Tickner looks beyond the favourites in the top batsman and bowler markets for the 2017/18 Ashes series.
Let’s get the caveat in straight away: warm-up match form is not necessarily a great indicator of what’s to come.
Especially as Australia, having encountered a battle-hardened England in 2010 after providing them with a proper game against a strong A side on a Test ground, have – as in 2013/14 - ensured the tourists this time face feeble opposition on slow, dead pitches.
It’s a policy designed to ensure England arrive undercooked in Brisbane, and to be fair, it a) will work, and b) is exactly what every other country does to touring sides these days. That 2010 prep was the exception, not the norm.
But what the inadequate opposition has done is allow some of England’s less experienced and more under-pressure players to get some time in the middle and runs under their belt.
Nobody has taken advantage of this opportunity than Mark Stoneman. He didn’t fully impress in the series against West Indies at the back end of last summer, but did enough in averaging 30 there – and on the back of consistently excellent returns in county cricket – to suggest there is more to come.
Alastair Cook apparently rates him, and if anyone should be able to judge an opener then it’s the man with more runs at the top of the order than anyone else in Test history.
Stoneman certainly appears to have the right ingredients; a solid technique containing no obvious weakness and by all accounts an even temperament.
His efforts so far on tour have brought him 308 runs at 77. His individual innings have been 85, 61, 51 and 111. Whatever questions there may be over the calibre of opposition, those are decent returns. He also ended the season well, returning to Surrey after his first taste of Test action to record scores of 131, 51 and 98 in the last three matches of the County Championship season.
And given England’s well-documented problems in the top six, he has little to beat in the England top six. He is a better player than James Vince or Dawid Malan, he doesn’t have the added task of keeping wicket like Jonny Bairstow, he doesn’t have to overcome a poor record against Australia like Cook and he doesn’t have the captaincy burden of Joe Root.
It’s clearly speculative given Stoneman’s grand total of three inconclusive Tests in England against a poor West Indies side, but 8/1 about any opening batsman in his current form is surely too big in any top series batsman market even where the rest of the line-up packed with quality.
In this case it simply isn’t. There are two world-class batsmen in England’s top six, while Bairstow too is worthy of utmost respect despite having to bear a heavy load.
If we think Stoneman will go well in Australia, it makes sense to also attempt to eliminate some of these threats if we can. Going over a series run line set at 290.5 looks a reasonable shout, but better still appears to be the 7/2 Bet Victor offer about Stoneman top-scoring for England without Root or Cook.
I’d take Stoneman to outscore Cook anyway, but the price still looks well worth it to take Root out of the equation. Root is one of the best two or three batsmen in the world and if captaincy doesn’t faze him – and so far it hasn’t – he will take out this market.
The 3/1 sans England’s Big Two doesn’t quite pitch Stoneman into a match bet with Bairstow – Vince or Malan could still surprise us, while Moeen Ali is a legitimate threat from number seven if he gets going – but it’s not that far away from it. As with the outright 8/1, it just looks too big given the opposition it leaves.
As for Stoneman’s opening partner, Cook may have a formidable overall record and could yet go past Sachin Tendulkar’s overall mark for Test runs, but his record against Australia is poor.
There’s obviously one large exception to this, that astonishing 2010/11 campaign where his staggering 766-run haul was so integral to a memorable England success, but it’s been more famine than feast for Cook against the Aussies.
His other series returns against Australia (most recent first) have been 330, 246, 277, 222 and 276.
As such, a series runs line of 385.5 seems incredibly high given that he’s only got within a 100 of that once in six attempts outside his series mirabilis. The 43/50 on offer is worth a chunky bet.
Turning to the bowlers, and James Anderson looks a shaky favourite. His record in and against Australia is not the best. Five Tests in seven weeks in Australia is a huge ask for a 35-year-old, even one as remarkably fit as Anderson.
He is a better, cleverer bowler now than the one who struggled (far from alone there of course) four years ago, and could well add another layer of greatness to his career over the coming weeks. But it’s not quite as likely as the odds suggest.
Stuart Broad has been short of his best for a while now and has not pulled up trees in the warm-up games. Chris Woakes, though, has and looks big at 4/1 here. He ripped through Cricket Australia under the lights in Adelaide and backed that up with six wickets on a Townsville pitch offering absolutely no encouragement.
Woakes is an unassuming sort of cricketer, easily overlooked, but should not be taken lightly. He’s absolutely crucial to this England side – especially with Ben Stokes absent – and could be set for a huge series.
Injuries restricted him to one Test appearance this summer, and it was immediately clear at Headingley that he should not have played that one. But he certainly looks fit now, and could ironically benefit from his injury struggles as he starts the Ashes fresh as a daisy.
Again the warm-up form is encouraging but not definitive; what it does show, though, is that he is over the injury problems of the summer.
And before that injury he was really coming into his own as a Test cricketer. He bagged 41 wickets at 25s in 2016 and certainly looks to be regaining that kind of form and – crucially – fitness.
He’s probably England’s quickest bowler, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him get the new ball at some stage should either of the big two struggle for form or fitness.
But even as third seamer, he’ll get plenty of opportunity – again, Stokes’ absence is key – given the side is sure to contain a rookie fourth seamer while Moeen Ali must rewrite history given English off-spinners’ woeful record in these parts.
The Australian batsman markets appear fair enough, with Steve Smith and David Warner arguably even further ahead of their team-mates than 5/1 bar suggests. Smith is shading favouritism where they can be split; at 7/4 and 15/8 you could even make a case for Dutching the pair if 4/9 shots are your thing. It would be a staggering upset for anyone else to top the Aussie charts come January.
Better, though, is surely the 9/4 on offer for Josh Hazlewood in the top bowler market. Mitchell Starc is an obvious and worthy enough favourite here with his record, left-armness, pace, moustache and first name all combining to give England followers The Fear, but it’s a man more akin to another English Ashes nemesis who may come to the fore.
Hazlewood’s probing accuracy is if anything more likely to expose the deficiencies in England’s batsmen than Starc’s express pace, and his record in this particular market stacks up.
Incredibly, Starc has never outright won a top Test series bowler market in Australia. Hazlewood did so in both series last winter against Pakistan and South Africa, eclipsing his more vaunted rival 17-15 and 17-14.
A live outsider also worth considering here is off-spinner Nathan Lyon at 11/2. He was the leading wicket-taker in the home series against India three years ago with 23 wickets in four Tests, while shared top spot with James Pattinson in the following year’s West Indies series.
Recommended Bets: Ashes series batsmen & bowlers
2pts Chris Woakes top England series bowler at 4/1
1pt Mark Stoneman top England batsman at 8/1
2pts Mark Stoneman top England batsman w/o Root & Cook at 3/1
5pts Alastair Cook under 385.5 series runs at 43/50
3pts Josh Hazlewood top Australia bowler at 9/4
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Check sportinglife.com/cricket on Monday morning for Dave's best bets from the specials markets.
Posted at 0720 GMT on 17/11/17.