Boxing betting preview and tips for Manny Pacquiao v Jeff Horn
Simon Crawford expects the experience of Manny Pacquiao to get the better of Jeff Horn in Australia this weekend.
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It is being billed as the biggest fight ever to be staged in Australia as Manny Pacquiao defends his WBO world welterweight title against local favourite Jeff Horn at Brisbane's Suncorp Stadium in the early hours of Sunday morning (BST).
The unheralded Horn (16-0-1, 11KOs) is the WBO's mandatory challenger but looks as though he will be badly outgunned in this one, providing Pacquiao is up for the contest.
The 29-year-old 'Hornet', a former school teacher, has a big punch in his locker and will also have height and reach advantages. But this is a huge step up in class for him, with wins over Ali Funeka and a faded Randall Bailey the only things that stand out on his CV.
Of course he has a puncher's chance but it will take a real 'Rocky' moment to prevent the Filipino legend chalking up the 60th win of his stellar career.
Horn has stated he will come out firing and I fear he looks tailor-made for Pacquiao, with an open defence and tendency to stand square when throwing his shots.
Many feels Horn does not deserve this opportunity despite his ranking, but the challenger is bullish about his chances.
"I think I’ve got the advantage on the physical side because I’m bigger than Manny. He’s come up from such light weight divisions. But he’s shown obviously that he can take down guys even my size," said Horn.
"I think I’ve got the speed, I’ve got a similar style to his so I’m a good mover. It’s going to be harder for him to lay those shots on me because he’s fought a few guys that don’t move as well."
Pacquiao (59-6-2, 38KOs) may have lost some of his power moving to 147lbs, but there is no disputing his ringcraft and ability to unleash fast combinations of five and six punches.
The first and only eight-division world champion who has held 11 major world titles, the 38-year-old may not be the force he once was but he is still a very dangerous fighter.
Now a successful politician back in his native Philippines, Pacquiao went into retirement after losing to Floyd Mayweather Jr in May 2015 but has returned with victories over Timothy Bradley and Jessie Vargas - both of whom I consider to be better than Horn.
My only concern is a lack of motivation as the challenger is hardly a high-profile opponent and let us not forget that Pacquiao was close to sealing a clash with former stablemate Amir Khan until negotiations broke down.
However, only this week trainer Freddie Roach claimed Pacquiao was chasing a rematch with Mayweather - who is coming out of retirement to take on MMA star Conor McGregor - and predicts his fighter will be out to make a statement.
"He wants a re-match with Mayweather," Roach told Sky News. "To get Mayweather, you have to look good. Against Horn, he's got to look good, he has to be impressive."
"I think it's going to be short and sweet. If our opponent comes out like he says he's going to, Manny will fire back and I think it's going to be great fight [but] it won't last too long. And someone will get knocked out."
Even though 'Pacman' has not secured a stoppage win since he beat Miguel Cotto back in 2009, I feel Horn provides him with the perfect opportunity to score one and perhaps tempt Mayweather into what would be a money-spinning second fight.
Fighting in front of his own fans, I can see Horn being gung-ho and looking to make a fast start. But Pacquiao is so much more experienced and I see him picking the challenger apart with victory coming at around the halfway mark.
The champion can be backed at 7/5 to win inside the distance which looks too big for me, while I am also going to have a small interest in a Pacquiao success coming in rounds 1-6 which is 9/2.
Where to watch: BoxNation
Posted at 1050 BT on 30/06/17
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