UFC betting tips: Saturday March 13
3pts Jonathan Martinez to win & Angela Hill to win by decision at 23/20 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
2pts Witt vs Semelsberger to not go the distance at 5/4 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
This weekend’s UFC event sees the return of Birmingham’s Leon Edwards who, after almost 18 months on the sidelines, finally gets the chance to cement his place as the rightful number one contender at 170lbs. Edwards faces a tough test in the ever competitive Belal Muhammad, who won his fourth fight in a row just a month ago.
After last week’s blockbuster PPV event, this card is slightly lacking in star power. Nevertheless, here are my two best bets for Saturday night’s action, including a double with reliable favourites, as well as an odds-against wager on a fight ending via stoppage.
Enter The Dragon
JONATHAN MARTINEZ has finally hit his stride in the UFC, having now competed six times within the organisation. Although he lost his debut, Martinez has certainly developed as a fighter, winning four of those following five bouts. Dragon’s improvements are hardly surprising now that he has committed to training at Factory X, with respected head coach Marc Montoya turning him into a dangerous striker with impressive scrambling ability.
Martinez faces something of a step down in competition this weekend against Davey Grant, a fighter whose UFC career has been riddled with inactivity. Grant has competed just five times in the last five years, managing three wins and two losses. The level of competition that Grant has faced also raises some eyebrows, as just one of these opponents is still within the UFC.
This looks like a great stylistic matchup for Martinez, who will have a significant speed advantage against an opponent nine years his senior. Grant’s striking defence has always been questionable, but against an opportunistic striker like Martinez, he will be severely outgunned on the feet.
Grant’s most logical path to victory would be to grapple his opponent, but Martinez’s ability to stay off his back will make this a difficult task. Along with this, Dragon throws a devastating knee in reaction to his opponents’ takedowns, which has rendered two of his UFC opponents unconscious. Like all fighters from Factory X, he also employs a great calf kick that will limit any explosiveness in Grant’s takedown attempts.
The odds are quite literally stacked against Grant here, and it is very difficult to argue the contrary. Martinez has proven himself to be capable of winning by knockout, submission or decision, so I have combined him in a double with another strong favourite in the preliminaries to get the most value.
Overkill to repeat history
ANGELA HILL makes her first appearance of the year this Saturday night, having competed four times in 2020. One of the most active fighters on the UFC’s roster, Hill has competed 13 times under the UFC’s banner and has faced almost every notable name that the division has to offer.
It is therefore no surprise that Overkill was eventually going to be booked against previous opponents for a second time, and that is the case in this weekend’s bout against Ashley Yoder.
Their original meeting in 2017 was largely uneventful, with Hill enjoying success on the feet and preventing Yoder from landing takedowns and having any significant time on top. While Hill never had her opponent in any significant danger, she was the clear winner and ultimately deserved the eventual 30-27 decision on all three judges’ scorecards.
MMA is an ever-evolving sport, so whilst there is a lot to take from this previous fight, it alone does not guarantee that Hill repeats history. However, from what I have seen of their careers since, Overkill is the fighter who has grown and developed her skills significantly. She has improved her takedown defence and gone on to face a much more talented level of competition. In comparison, Yoder looks very much the same fighter from their 2017 clash.
I would have said that this fight was favourable for Hill back then, but given their capabilities in 2021 I think you can be even more confident in her this time. Ultimately, I expect to see the same outcome, with Hill getting the victory by decision. Yoder has never been finished in eight UFC appearances, and Hill herself has only secured a stoppage in two of 13 attempts. I think this is the perfect second half to the double, bringing the combined price to 23/20.
Chaos in the opener
The first fight of the night features a Welterweight showdown between Matthew Semelsberger and Jason Witt, who are both seeking their second consecutive victories inside the Octagon, and this one should FINISH INSIDE THE DISTANCE.
While this fight looks to be a traditional Striker vs Grappler matchup, both have notable weaknesses that play to their opponent's strengths. Firstly, there are concerns surrounding the durability and toughness of Witt, who has been knocked out on four occasions in his career. The most notable of these was in his UFC debut last year, where he lasted just 48 seconds before the referee declared him unconscious and called an end to the fight. Against a wild striker like Semelsberger, who is particularly dangerous in the early goings, Witt will certainly have to be careful.
The oddsmakers see this fight as being closely contested, and it is easy to see why. Although he holds a significant striking advantage, the erratic and overly aggressive striking of Semelsberger has created a specific weakness in his takedown defence. Semi The Jedi is competent off his back, but extended periods of grappling have been known to sap his cardio. Against a dedicated wrestler like Witt, this could result in a very dangerous third round for Semelsberger.
With 33 fights across both Witt and Semelsberger’s combined records, just eight have gone to a decision. Along with the 75% combined finishing rate, both fighters have only ever lost inside the distance.
Taking into account all the different strengths and weaknesses displayed by these two fighters, it seems unlikely that the bout will go the entire 15 minutes without either man finding the path to a finish. Whether it is an early knockout from Semelsberger or a late submission from Witt, I do not expect the judges to be needed for this one. At 5/4, there certainly seems to be value.
Posted at 1545 GMT on 11/03/21
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