Will Dean previews this weekend's UFC 285, which sees Jon Jones make his eagerly-anticipated return to action.
MMA betting tips: UFC 285
2pts Jon Jones to Win by Submission or Decision at 6/4 (bet365)
2pts Bo Nickal to Win by Submission in Round 1 at 23/20 (Unibet)
After 1,114 days outside the cage, JON JONES finally makes his return at UFC 285. Many MMA fans believe the now 35-year-old to be the greatest Mixed Martial Artist of all time, but Bones will have some serious work to do over the next few years if he is to reclaim that moniker in the eyes of the masses.
Jones was entirely dominant throughout his time at Light Heavyweight, winning 14 title fights (the most across UFC history). It is fair to say that Jones’ biggest enemy has always been himself, with a series of controversies muddying his legacy and a sole loss on his record due to an illegal strike.
With those events all in the past, Bones has spent the last three years out of the spotlight and has instead dedicated himself to preparing his body for the proper MMA Heavyweight requirements.
A Bone to pick
Stepping up or down a weight class is no small feat in MMA, as we saw recently with the outpour of praise for Alexander Volkanovski in his hotly contested loss to Islam Makhachev. Unfortunately for Jones, no gap in weight is more significant than the distance between Light Heavyweight, where combatants cannot weigh more than 205lbs, and the Heavyweight division, with fighters weighing 265lbs or lower.
The man to welcome Jones to the UFC’s biggest weight class is former interim-title holder Ciryl Gane. The Frenchman had enjoyed a mostly dominant stint in MMA up until last year, where he was defeated by now-free agent Francis Ngannou. In that fight, it was revealed that Gane’s takedown defence and grappling IQ were still very much a work in progress, and his overall inexperience in MMA finally showed (having made his debut just four years prior).
Gane is an elite level Heavyweight, but his biggest strengths have always lied in capitalising on what many 265lb-ers have lacked – movement, speed and evasiveness. Throughout his UFC run, Bon Gamin has clearly been the faster and more defensively aware striker, usually at the sacrifice of knockout power. Considering these are attributes usually credited to the lighter Jones, I don’t expect the Frenchman to have as much of a “home advantage” in weight as many would anticipate.
It always seemed suspicious how Jones teased his move to Heavyweight but failed to make good on promises for all these years, and I believe the timing of this fight explains why. Jones has never been a hard hitter, and the gap in raw power was something he was always going to struggle against – making the recently reigning champion Ngannou a nightmare matchup for the former Light Heavyweight Champion. By comparison, the prospect of fighting against a volume based striker like Gane naturally dampens that threat and gives Jones every chance of a successful Heavyweight debut.
Therefore, I expect Jones to further his MMA legacy by becoming a multi-division champion on Saturday night. His ability to mix in wrestling as well as match the distance striking of Gane should see him walk away with the victory, with the potential of a submission presenting itself if he forces things to the floor.
JON JONES TO WIN BY SUBMISSION OR DECISION at 6/4 is thus the best bet for Saturday night’s Heavyweight blockbuster.
Nickal Worth the Money
It’s very rare you’ll see a fighter with a 3-0 record make their UFC debut on the main card of a pay-per-view, but Bo Nickal is seemingly worth the exception. A finalist at the 2020 USA Olympic Wrestling team trials, he is widely regarded as one of the best wrestlers of all time to transition to MMA.
Dana White has earmarked Nickal for UFC success very early on in his career, personally attending his debut on the regional scene and facilitating his second and third bouts on the Contender Series. The wrestler certainly raised expectations in those bouts, winning all three in under 70 seconds.
Whilst Nickal is being given special treatment for all the right reasons, it appears his opponent, Jamie Pickett, is being given the same for all the wrong reasons. The Night Wolf currently sports a 2-4 record inside the UFC, against a very low level of competition, with many questioning how he has still managed to maintain his position within the company when many other fighters have recently been released for less. The UFC’s insistence on squaring Pickett off against Nickal is clearly the answer, as they are simply keeping him around to bolster the reputation and record of a hopeful prospect.
While many may disapprove of such a practice, it is important for any MMA fighter to manage their career responsibly, and Nickal is still a 3-0 fighter by the sports’ standards. Pickett should not possess and real threat to the 27-year-old, but it gives him valuable experience and the opportunity to announce himself to the wider fanbase on the same card as the likes of Jon Jones and Valentina Shevchenko.
Nickal must know that such an opportunity is not to be squandered, so it is likely he shoots a takedown within the first 10 seconds and forces this fight to the floor as quickly as he can. Pickett has already shown to be at his most vulnerable when his back is on the mat, and the wrestler has clearly spent a lot of time sharpening his Brazilian Jiu Jitsu to compliment his already established skillset.
Nickal is currently well on his way to being the largest betting favourite in UFC history (a record currently held by 1/20 Alexandr Romanov against Chase Sherman last year), but there is somehow still value to be found in the prop markets. Given the speed at which he has dominated his debut, backing BO NICKAL TO WIN BY SUBMISSION IN ROUND 1 at 23/20 is a price worth taking.
Posted at 1120 GMT on 01/03/23
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