Don't miss the latest expert analysis and betting tips from our team ahead of UFC 258, where Gilbert Burns looks a value underdog.
MMA betting tips: UFC 258
1pt Gilbert Burns to beat Kamaru Usman at 12/5
3pts Belal Muhammad to win by Decision at 8/11
Main card
By Kieran Cobley
Kamaru Usman will look to defend his welterweight title for a third time on Saturday night, as he takes on Gilbert Burns, who was one of the UFC’s biggest stars of 2020.
The two were originally set to face off last year on Fight Island, but that fell through after Burns tested positive for Covid-19.
The cancelation has only added to the anticipation for this fight, which tops a card full of talent.
Former interim middleweight title challenger Kelvin Gastelum takes on the always-dangerous Ian Heinisch, while top prospect Macey Barber returns from injury to take on Alexa Grasso.
Burns looks the bet
Usman versus Burns is a fight I am gutted fans didn’t get to see last year as it was scheduled at the perfect time. Burns had just defeated former champion Tyron Woodley decisively while Usman was searching for his next challenger following a dominant performance over Colby Covington.
The Nigerian Nightmare has a very solid game plan; to force his opponent up to the cage using his aggressive clinch control before landing heavy and damaging shots.
As soon as his opponent looks to try to switch the position, he grabs them in the clinch again and forces them back to the fence to again get to work.
It is a tried and tested game plan that is very effective: in his last three fights, he has landed a total of 410 significant strikes. This takes a lot of effort and means Usman needs to be in tiptop condition to maintain such a game plan.
Unfortunately, Usman is taking on GILBERT BURNS, who not only has a strong clinch game of his own, but one-punch knockout power and slick submission skills.
This should make Usman wary of getting in close, and if Burns decides to engage in the clinch, he will be a hard opponent to put away.
You also have to factor in that these two men used to be teammates, meaning that they know each other very well, and that additional preparation time from their fight cancellation will have given Burns more time to work out counters for Usman.
Expect Burns to come out more aggressively and put Usman on the back foot. This will put an immediate stop to Usman’s game plan of being the aggressor using his clinch, and instead force him to work on breaking the clinch.
While Usman tries to slip out of it, the opportunity will arise for Burns to land some heavy shots and this is where he can win the fight. These shots should drop Usman, and allow the Brazilian to jump on top and throw ground and pound or look to switch positions and grab a submission.
As a 2/1 underdog, Burns is a great value bet here.
Preliminaries
By Will Dean
BELAL MUHAMMAD faces Dhiego Lima on the preliminary card, in what is widely considered as a step down in competition for the Palestinian. Remember The Name is currently ranked 13th in UFC’s Welterweight division, with seven wins from his last eight bouts.
Muhammad is incredibly well-rounded and pushes a ferocious pace. Whether striking or grappling with his opponents, he rarely finds himself on the losing end of a round.
The only style of fighter that Muhammad has struggled against in his career is a power puncher. With just four KO victories from 22 bouts, that description does not exactly befit Lima. With that in mind, it is easy to see why he is the betting underdog.
Despite such a steep price on Muhammad to win, he is always a valuable fighter to back for a decision victory. Remember The Name has only finished two of his eight UFC victories, and has relied on his ground dominance to get the job done. Lima has credible Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, and should be able to keep himself out of harm's way.
Muhammad should be the better fighter everywhere else. He has advantages in striking volume, wrestling, cardio, and durability, and it is hard to foresee a clear path to victory for Lima outside of a fight-ending punch.
Look for Muhammad to treat his competition accordingly, collecting a dominant 30-27 decision victory and adding another victim to his already impressive CV.
Posted at 0915 GMT on 11/02/21
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