Boxing betting tips: Saturday March 20
2pts Lawrence Okolie by decision at 3/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
They say boxing is all about timing and who has their timing right should be the deciding factor as LAWRENCE OKOLIE gets his first world title shot against Krzystztof Glowacki at the Wembley Arena.
Has this crack at the vacant WBO cruiserweight strap come too soon for the Hackney native in just his 16th professional bout, or is the Polish veteran ripe for the taking, with plenty of miles now on the clock? The bookies suggest it will be the latter scenario that plays out, with 'The Sauce' 3/10 to prove too hot for the visitor, who is a 100/30 chance in what looks an intriguing contest.
Smooth progress for British star
Everything has been quick when it comes to Okolie's boxing career so far, having qualified for the 2016 Olympics with very little amateur experience before going on to pick up the British, Commonwealth and European titles after just 14 outings in the paid ranks. Standing at 6'5" with a huge reach and natural power, his physical advantages have allowed him to progress at such a rate, but he will need more than that to capture world honours and the signs are there that he is really improving now.
He came in for plenty of stick for his ugly (and very boring) points wins over local rival Isaac Chamberlain and the experienced Matty Askin in 2018, but a run of five straight stoppages have followed and there was a maturity to his work when he broke down the previously unbeaten Yves Ngabu over seven rounds in October 2019. His next outing in December last year was meant to be this title bid versus Glowacki, only for the latter to fail a Covid-19 test and Okolie was left to despatch another Pole instead, the overmatched Nikodem Jezeski, in two rounds.
While Okolie barely broke sweat that night, it allowed him to shake off the ring rust and that could prove a big positive here, especially with his opponent's last outing coming in June 2019.
Polish veteran brings strong form
Glowacki is bidding to hold this belt for the third time, having originally won it with a thrilling stoppage of long-time champion Marco Huck in 2015. That victory and his successful defence against Steve Cunningham are very strong lines of form, and there was certainly no disgrace in dropping a decision to the brilliant Oleksandr Usyk in 2016.
He bounced back with five wins, including a good points victory over Maxin Vlasov in the quarter-finals of the World Boxing Super Series to earn him a fight with Mairis Briedis in the semis. He was stopped for the first time in his career in Latvia but it took an elbow to the jaw that Conor McGregor would have been proud of, and then a big shot way after the bell in a wild second round, to do the damage. Briedis was somehow only deducted one point and a dazed Glowacki was soon stopped in the third.
Those two losses from 33 bouts have come only against the very best in the division and he would make a mockery of his odds if turning up at his best, but how close to his peak will he be at 34 and with a long period of inactivity to overcome? Not only has the postponement due to Glowacki's positive test helped Okolie, but we also don't know how badly the underdog suffered with the virus and if it has affected his preparation. These factors are the reason the man with all the experience and proven form is available at such a big price.
The main criticism of Okolie so far has been his lack of ability to fight on the inside and that is where Glowacki will want to be, as he looks to apply his usual pressure and make it past the long reach of the bigger man to do damage up close. His five-inch height deficit is accentuated by him 'fighting small' from the southpaw stance and this could play to his advantage, with the Londoner having to punch down at his oncoming target.
However, Okolie is very effective when keeping it long and everything is very much in his favour if he can maintain the distance. Under the tutelage of Shane McGuigan, Okolie has not only improved his game up close but also his ability to maintain a range that suits him best, where he generates great power with his long levers. If the 28-year-old can keep his man on the end of his punches then he should be able to make the Pole a bit more hesitant and less inclined to march forward, resulting in the type of fight Okolie will relish.
What's the best bet in Okolie v Glowacki?
Okolie is going to have to produce his best performance yet to prevail but is improving rapidly and the timing may be just right for his upward curve to pass the level of his potentially declining opponent. While it may not be great value, a home victory looks most likely and it is just 4/5 that it comes by the way of stoppage. That looks very skinny given that Glowacki has only been stopped once before and that came by illegal means against a world-class operator.
Okolie clearly hits hard and his shots can start to really have an effect on Glowacki from the middle rounds, but getting rid of the experienced Pole would be a serious achievement and a POINTS VICTORY for the home man looks the bet at a much more appealing 3/1.
While the main event is full of interest, the same cannot be said of the undercard which is populated with long odds-on favourites in seemingly uncompetitive matches.
It is a busy night for McGuigan, who also has Anthony Fowler and Chris Billam-Smith in action and neither should have too much trouble extended their winning sequences. Likewise Joe Cordina, as the highly-touted Welsh prospect makes his long-awaited return, but it all makes for tricky punting opportunities and it may be best to concentrate on the big fight in that regard.
Posted at 0945 GMT on 19/03/21
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