Daniel Dubois v Joe Joyce: Betting preview and free tips for Saturday's British heavyweight showdown

Recommended Bets: November 28

2pts Joe Joyce to win the fight v Daniel Dubois at 3/1

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

High-profile heavyweight fights either side of the Atlantic dominate the focus this weekend but the weight division is the only thing the two very different bouts have in common.

The amount of people taking Mike Tyson and Roy Jones Jr's exhibition seriously is very worrying and the two 50-something legends trading blows in California isn't something I want to see, unlike the mouth-watering showdown between Daniel Dubois and Joe Joyce in London.

Despite safer and easier routes up the rankings available, two of Britain's brightest prospects put their unbeaten records on the line in a domestic blockbuster that almost seems too good to be true. Taking place in the historic setting of Westminster's Church House, this has the feel of a real throwback fight with both men preferring to do their talking in the ring, rather than in front of the cameras or on social media, and the British, Commonwealth and European heavyweight belts are all being contested together for the first time since 1992. There is more than just those prestigious belts on the line and the winner will earn his place among the mix of contenders to division rulers Tyson Fury and Anthony Joshua.

The two men have both boxed the same number of rounds (43) as professionals, but their respective paths to this point have been very different. Dubois, who is the younger man by 12 years at 23, ditched the vest and headguard to enter the paid ranks at the first opportunity and has blasted his way through 15 opponents (14 early) in a manner very rare for a man of his age in the glamour division. Joyce, on the other hand, enjoyed a long and very successful amateur career, which included collecting bronze at the European (2013) and World Championships (2015) and he was very unlucky not to add Olympic gold to his Commonwealth medal of the same colour when controversially outpointed by Tony Yoka in the final of Rio 2016. His 11-fight pro career has been less explosive than that of Dubois, but equally as dominant and the 35-year-old has had very little to worry about so far.

While pundits and fans are divided in their predictions, the odds tell a different story with Dubois a top price of 3/10 and as short as 1/5, and Joyce a big underdog at 3/1. A large factor in the lopsided betting is the age difference and the crowd-pleasing style of Dubois, whose highlight reel of knockouts is as impressive as his imposing physique and he's displayed the kind of wrecking-ball power that people crave from heavyweights. Conversely, the underdog is unorthodox and ungainly at times, relying more on work rate to wear his opponent down than turning their lights out with one shot.

A popular criticism of Joyce is that he is too easy to hit, as he's often prepared to take one to give one in his quest to apply relentless pressure, so it is easy to see why many believe this spells disaster against a man nicknamed 'Dynamite' for good reason. Two plus two could very well equal four in this equation and Dubois to win by stoppage is very popular at 1/2, but Joyce supporters would counter this by pointing out their man has shown a granite chin to date and can stand up to the heavy blows.

If Joyce can make it past the first four rounds without suffering too much damage, then things would get very interesting, with his moniker of the 'Juggernaut' being very apt as he will keep on coming while he's on his feet. The pace he sets and number of punches he throws is extremely rare at heavyweight, and this can play a huge factor in the fight in the later rounds. Dubois may have seen the 10 rounds out well enough on the sole occasion he was taken the distance, but that bout against professional survivor Kevin Johnson was hardly fought at the most upbeat tempo and going a full 12 rounds against Joyce is a whole different ball game. Dubois has only been past five rounds that one time and it is a concern as he steps up markedly in class against someone noted for his durability with experience of going the championship distance.

That statistic also highlights the power the Greenwich native clearly carries, but the level of opponents he has been putting away can be questioned. It has to be said he impressively got rid of fellow unbeaten Brit Nathan Gorman in five rounds in his biggest test to date, but the records of his other 14 opponents don't stand up to scrutiny and the company Joyce has kept has been a level above, with all 11 of his foes boasting winning records. In a busy 2019, he impressively despatched of former WBC champion Bermane Stiverne inside six sessions before beating a couple of world title challengers in Alexander Ustinov, who was blown away in three rounds, and Bryant Jennings, who still had plenty to offer when widely outpointed over 12 rounds. Add to that he faced current unbeaten heavyweights Oleksandr Usyk (lost) and Filip Hrgovic (won) in the World Series of Boxing as an amateur and his level of competition is vastly superior.

The sheer physicality of Joyce could also be a surprise for Dubois, who is used to being able to dominate and bully in the clinches but is unlikely to be able do so against an opponent boasting a slight height advantage and who is noted for his strength on the inside. While the favourite has the one-punch knockout power, they actually have very similar stoppage ratios of 93% (Dubois) and 91% (Joyce), and the latter hits harder than some give him credit for. The Putney resident tends to push his shots a little and they certainly don't have the same snap as Dubois', but they are heavy enough to take their toll, especially when they are coming in your direction with alarming regularity.

Both have effective jabs, but for different reasons. Joyce works to head and body very well to keep his opponent occupied and at range, whereas the ramrod left hand of Dubois is a real weapon of its own, and this could be a battle of the jabs early doors. However, it is going to catch fire at some point and we are in for a treat when it does.

This could simply come down to whether Joyce's chin cracks under the hammer blows in the first quarter or not. Dubois holds the speed advantage and, given the older man likes to get on with things, you have to think the youngster is going to connect with something meaningful before too long. Dubois to win in rounds 1-6 is therefore obviously a huge runner at 7/5 and nobody would be surprised with that outcome. However, in a fight which seems so tricky to call, Joyce looks too big a price to pass up and rates the value option.

Serious questions are going to be asked of Dubois' stamina if he fails to end this before halfway, as Joyce is simply relentless when he gets into a rhythm and does not give you a second to breathe. Also, the longer things go things go, the more the underdog's experience comes into play and having a 12-rounder against top opposition under his belt could prove invaluable. He was also hurt to the body in the first round of that bout with Jennings and proved he can overcome adversity to prevail, which is a box yet to be ticked by Dubois. The latter wouldn't be the first man to find his power isn't as potent when stepped up in class and if that is the case here then Joyce wearing his man down for a second half stoppage (10/1) or claiming a points win (15/2) become extremely plausible scenarios. The risk of heavyweight boxing means that if this theory proves off the mark then it could go emphatically wrong early doors, but the 3/1 about Joyce is big enough to get my support in the hope that he can weather the storm and bring his stamina into play.

With Jack Catterall, Hamzah Sheeraz and Jack Massey all long odd-on to be victorious, the undercard fails to get the juices flowing, but that is no surprise given most of the budget has gone on ensuring this fantastic main event didn't end up as a pay-per-view event on BT Sport. That honour goes to the Tyson-Jones circus in America and we will likely be very thankful it wasn't the other way round when reflecting on Sunday morning.

Posted at 2235 GMT on 26/11/20

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