Boxing expert Chris Oliver is banking on the class and experience of James DeGale as he prepares to face Chris Eubank Jr at the O2 on Saturday.
Recommended bets
3pts James DeGale to win by decision at 2/1
James DeGale and Chris Eubank Jr are drinking in the last chance saloon when they clash on Saturday and that should be good news for the fans.
The loser can say goodbye to big nights like this and the pay cheques that go with them, while both men have questions to answer and that all makes for an intriguing domestic battle.
There is very little to choose between them at the prices, with Eubank a best of 10/11 versus the 13/10 about DeGale, but it would have been a very different picture had they met two or three years ago.
DeGale, the 2008 Olympic gold medallist, proved himself to be a world-class operator in the paid ranks as well as the amateur game when capturing the IBF super middleweight title with a victory over Andre Dirrell, before staying on the road to retain his belt against former champion Lucian Bute, Regelio Medina and Badou Jack.
However, the Harlsden man hasn't looked the same since fighting out a thrilling draw with the latter in January 2017 and the shoulder surgery that followed.
He lost his belt to Caleb Truax in an upset of the year contender in December of that year and while he avenged that points loss four months later, the 33-year-old only scraped by on the cards in another bloody battle. We learnt nothing from his three-round blowout of the over-matched Fidel Monterrosa Munoz in September and plenty are expecting the decline to continue at the O2 Arena in London this weekend.
Key info: DeGale v Eubank Jr
When and where is it? Saturday, February 23 at the O2 Arena
What time will it start? Ring walks are expected around 2200
Where can I watch it? ITV Box Office are broadcasting the fight live
However, Eubank also has something to prove after being outclassed by George Groves in the semi-final of the World Boxing Super Series 12 months ago. The Brighton man was made to look like a novice at times as he struggle to catch up with Groves, whose sound fundamentals of a good jab and footwork took him to a comfortable points success.
That wasn't the first time Eubank's flaws had been exposed, having been outpointed by another well-schooled rival in Billy Joe Saunders in November 2014, and he clearly struggles with opponents who like to use their feet rather than just their fists. Famous for training himself in the past, the 29-year-old has brought in Nate Vasquez to coach him for this fight, but whether much difference can be taken from one training camp is open to debate.
We know what Eubank brings to the table - plenty of speed, strength and fitness, but a lack of technical ability. He's been beaten on both occasions he's stepped up to face world-class operators, therefore the outcome appears to revolve around what DeGale does and how much he has left in the tank.
The same version of DeGale that faced Truax first time around would be in for a long night, as he found himself on the ropes too often and that stationary target would be perfect for Eubank to tee off on with his impressive repertoire of rapid combinations and power punches.
However, DeGale maintains he came back too soon for those fights and was badly hampered by injuries, ones which he claims have now healed, and he reckons to be fighting fit. Whether you believe him or not probably dictates who you will be siding with here.
Both men have good chins and aren't noted for their knockout power at the highest level, so I am expecting this to go late and the judges are likely to be needed. I am in no doubt that a peak DeGale would win handily here, but he has the experience and tools to prevail against Eubank even at 80 per cent of his best.
His level of opponent has been far superior and he is also the bigger man, with Eubank being a natural middleweight, which showed as he struggled with the physicality of Groves last February. Also, it took him a long time to get to grips with the southpaw stance of Saunders in his other defeat and it could be a similar story here against another 'leftie', and a tricky one at that.
If he can get his jab going early, I can see DeGale using every inch of the ring to keep out of harm's way and build up a healthy lead. There will inevitably be a storm or two to weather as he slows down in the later rounds, but he has the craft to see it out and nick a close points decision at 2/1.
Posted at 1045 GMT on 22/02/19.