Terri Harper should justify short odds at Eddie Hearn's Fight Camp, but Chris Oliver says she might have to go the distance to do so.
Recommended bets
3pts Terri Harper to win by decision at 15/8
2pts Anthony Fowler or Adam Harper to win in rounds 1-5 at 6/5
1pt Chris Billam-Smith to win in rounds 7-12 at 2/1
We were promised big things by the promoter and Eddie Hearn's Fight Camp proved a huge success on Saturday and another exciting night looks in store on Friday with the second instalment of a four-week programme.
With pyrotechnics aplenty in the grounds of the Essex mansion, Matchroom Boxing was literally back with a bang and there were also fireworks in the ring, not least in the top of the bill match between Ted Cheeseman and Sam Eggington. The all-action light middleweights served up 12 rounds for red-hot action in a fight of the year contender and this week's main event between TERRI HARPER and Natasha Jonas has all the ingredients to be another cracker.
History is being made in this first all-British women's world title fight and this is a landmark moment for female boxing on these shores, with the WBC super featherweight title on the line following Harper's fantastic victory over Eva Wahlström in February.
It is Jonas who is probably better known to casual viewers thanks to a fine amateur career, during which she picked up picked European bronze (2011) and silver (2014) but it was her barn-burner against Katie Taylor in the quarter-finals of London Olympics is 2012 that she is best remembered for, as she gave the eventual gold medallist a real fright.
Therefore, it may be a surprise for some to see her as big as 7/1 for this contest, but her professional career hasn't lived up to expectations so far. All was going well after stopping her first six opponents until she came up against Viviane Obenauf in August 2018. What was expected to be another comfortable victory for the Liverpudlian turned out to be anything but, as she was badly hurt by the awkward and aggressive underdog in the third and never recovered, and the upset was confirmed the following round.
The same Viviane Obenauf was easily outpointed by Harper 18 months later in what proved to be a real coming-of-age performance from the likeable Yorkshire native and it led to the world title shot against Wahlström. The Finnish champion had ruled at 130lb for five years and her only previous defeat came to Taylor up at lightweight, so many thought it was a step too far for the inexperienced youngster from Denaby. However, with the fight in the balance at the halfway mark, Harper then took over, scoring a knockdown in the seventh round, having a big eighth and finishing much the stronger to run out a decisive winner.
Their routes to this big point could hardly have been different, as Harper turned her back on the game as a 16-year-old after a very short amateur career and was only tempted back by trainer/manager Stefy Bull to turn pro at 21. Ten fights and two-and-a-quarter years later she was world champion, and such a rapid ascent is the reason she is a very warm 1/10 favourite, as well as being 13 years younger at 23.
However, this looks more competitive than the odds suggest, a theory that has weight added to it by Jonas doing a better job on some of their other common opponents. Whereas Harper went the distance (four rounds) with Monika Antonik and Bojana Libiszewska, Jonas halted them in one and four respectively, while she also got rid of Bec Connolly earlier as well. The underdog will fancy herself as the puncher in this fight as well and will be looking to draw the favourite onto her big left hand from the southpaw stance.
As much I think Jonas will 'outrun' her odds, the prospect of more to come from Harper, especially now she's a champion, convinces me she will ultimately have too much for the veteran. Harper made excellent use of her fine jab against Wahlström and won the fight with her sharper punches, as well as her superior movement, and it could be a similar story here.
With the edge in speed of both hand and foot, the younger boxer can get her shots off first more often than not and use her feet to keep her out of too much trouble. It's 8/11 that she retains her title via a stoppage but Jonas, who has rebounded from that loss with three wins, has plenty of experience to call upon and Harper has gone the distance in her last two contests, so the 15/8 about the latter winning via the scorecards again rates better value.
It will be a busy night for trainer Shane McGuigan, who has two of his charges in action, including the talented CHRIS BILLAM-SMITH, who comes up against Nathan Thorley in a Commonwealth cruiserweight title contest.
The Bournemouth native can count himself unlucky not to be still unbeaten having only lost a very close decision to the promising Richard Riakporhe last summer, after which he rebounded with a fifth-round stoppage of Craig Glover, despite playing into his powerful opponent's hands by trading more than he needed to. A best price of 1/10 to record win number 11 here, he faces a very different test against Thorley, who has recently stepped up from light heavyweight and is unlikely to be anyway near as aggressive as Glover.
A bronze medallist at the 2014 Commonwealth Games, the Welshman has a perfect 14-fight record but only two of his victims had winning records, and this represents a big step up in class, hence the quotes of 8/1 about him prevailing. The 27-year-old is tall and awkward, so finding the target may prove far trickier for Billam-Smith on this occasion and he will probably be conceding an edge in speed to a man who is likely to be on the move a lot.
Once the favourite does catch up with his man, though, he can really impose his size advantage and justify the 1/3 for him to win inside the distance. He's a 5/4 chance to do it before halfway, but could be frustrated early doors by his quicker opponent and may have to be patient behind his impressive jab before being able to land the big stuff, which should have the desired effect on the smaller man when he does. I like the 2/1 on offer for the champion to retain his belt in rounds 7-12 in what could be a bit of a slow burner.
In contrast, ANTHONY FOWLER's tussle with Adam Harper looks sure to be an entertaining scrap while it lasts.
Fowler (1/20), who is rebuilding under new coach McGuigan after a loss to arch rival Scott Fitzgerald last year, has bounced back with a couple of good points wins and a first-round blowout, and the hard-hitting Scouser is only 3/10 to record another stoppage.
Harper is certainly no mug, though, and his sole defeat in 10 outings saw him go the distance with Michael Zerafa, who later gave Kell Brook all sorts of trouble and beat Manny Pacquiao conqueror Jeff Horn. However, due to an unsatisfactory brain scan, it is nearly two years since his last fight and that could be a big factor, with Fowler active before lockdown and match-sharp from an outing in March.
Harper is busy and likes to come forward, throwing plenty of punches, but it is a case of quantity over quality and this can play right into the hands of the favourite, who will relish not having to go looking for his opponent. Therefore, Fowler can start to detonate those bombs early doors and force the stoppage before we reach the second half of the fight, though Sky Bet are throwing in a Harper stoppage in the same window, at the same price, which is obviously worth having on-side for nothing.
Posted at 1055 BST on 08/08/20
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