Boxing betting tips: Saul Canelo Alvarez v Billy Joe Saunders
4pts Saul Canelo Alvarez to win by decision at 13/8 (Sky Bet)
It's time for Billy Joe Saunders to put up or shut up as he finally gets the big fight he has been craving against SAUL 'CANELO' ALVAREZ.
For years the Hatfield man has been telling us that he just needs the big fight to show the world how good he is and they don't come much bigger than this, as he travels to Texas to take on the best fighter in the game right now, live on DAZN in the early hours of Sunday morning for UK fans.
Not only is Canelo the pound-for-found king inside the ring, he is also the most powerful boxer outside of it and he is the reason 70,000 fans are turning up to the home of the Dallas Cowboys for the first major post-pandemic event. Plenty would argue that combination makes this task bigger for the Brit than his odds of 5/1 would suggest, but he is certainly no passenger in this show and it has a real big event feel to it.
When is Canelo v Saunders and what TV channel is it on?
- Date: Saturday, May 8
- Venue: AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas
- TV Channel: Subscription service DAZN (UK fans can sign up for £1.99 per month)
- Main card begins: around 1am UK time
- Main event approximately 4 am UK time
- Belts on the line: WBA (Super), WBC, WBO and The Ring super middleweight titles
- Records: Canelo (55-1-2 with 37 KOs), Saunders (30-0 with 14 KOs)
With Canelo a top price of 2/11, their contrasting odds reflect their polar opposite personalities and careers to date. The Mexican (55-1-2) has been groomed for stardom since turning professional as a 15-year-old and has been the sport's cash cow since the retirement of Floyd Mayweather, who taught the man from Guadalajara a boxing lesson in 2013. Since learning an awful lot from that sole defeat, the flame-haired star has taken on all comers from light middleweight to super middleweight, even dipping his toe into the light heavyweight division when stopping WBO champion Sergey Kovalev. There are plenty of big names on his record, none more so than the previously unbeaten Gennady Golovkin, against whom he emerged with a draw, albeit a very controversial one, and a majority decision win in a pair of modern-day classics at middleweight in 2017 and 2018.
The 30-year-old is the consummate professional, never out of shape and has performed consistently well for over a decade now, which is in stark contrast to Saunders, who has been erratic and unpredictable on both sides of the ropes over that same period. Arguably as well known for his controversial behaviour than for his boxing, the outspoken 31-year-old has blown hot and cold more than a faulty boiler but there has never been any doubting his ability and he went to the Olympics at just 18 years of age. After cleaning up domestically against the likes of John Ryder and Chris Eubank Jr, he announced himself on the world scene when relieving Andy Lee of the WBO middleweight belt with a fine performance in 2015, but then followed that with a woeful showing when edging past the mediocre Artur Akavov. His brilliant display against the big-punching David Lemieux in the Canadian's back yard should have been his coming out party, but he then went missing for a year and returned with some very average performances at super middleweight. That said, he has picked up the WBO strap at 168lb and remains unbeaten.
Canelo has developed into such a well-rounded fighter and is capable of winning in many ways at this stage of his career. He is a serious force when pounding forward and letting go thudding hooks, straight rights and uppercuts in rapid combinations to head and body, but is also a superb counter puncher with lightning reflexes and tremendous upper body movement, allowing him to turn defence into attack in a flash. He commands the ring like someone who is always in control and applies mental, as well as physical, pressure through his ring generalship. He has overcome all shapes, sizes, and styles, so pinpointing a way to beat him is a tricky task, although many believe the slick skills of a man like Saunders has the best chance.
At his best, the underdog is a master of the sweet science and as skilful a southpaw as you will find in the sport right now. Slipping in and out of range with his excellent footwork, he works well behind his sharp jab and uses lots of feints to provide a busy, and very awkward, puzzle for his opponents to solve. An excellent judge of timing and distance, he's adept at making you miss and pay with rapid flurries. On his day, he is a nightmare for anyone, including Canelo.
While many point to the Mayweather defeat as a blueprint for how to beat Canelo, who was made to punch thin air all night long, few can do what the brilliant unbeaten American could do and a more realistic comparison for Billy Joe is Erislandy Lara's performance against Alvarez. A slick and elusive southpaw, like Saunders, the Cuban proved very hard to catch and the slower feet of Canelo were exposed as he chased his man around the ring. Canelo escaped with a split decision win, but he hasn't a faced a pure boxer since and Saunders will be the first 'lefty' he has taken on in six years.
Saunders likely needs to adopt similar tactics if he's to have success here and the argument over the size of the ring earlier in the week, with the Brit getting his way with a 22-foot platform, tells you his game plan will be to utilise his fleet of foot with plenty of movement. He has to upset the rhythm of the favourite, and can do so with his feints, footwork and constantly turning his opponent. If he can do so in the early rounds, Canelo may become frustrated and that would only play into the underdog's hands even more.
Canelo v Saunders: Tale of the tape
- Nationality : Mexican - British
- Age: 30 - 31
- Height: 5-9, 5-11
- Reach: 70 1/2 inches, 71 inches
- Total fights: 58 - 30
- Record: 55-1-2 with 37 KOs
It's not hard to envisage Saunders having plenty of success in the first half and building up an early lead, similar to his countryman Amir Khan in 2016. The speed and mobility of Khan troubled Canelo, but the latter slowly but surely began to close the gap and ended it in the sixth with a devastating right hand. Therein lies the problem for Saunders, as he will need to maintain the distance for the full 12 rounds and that is no easy task.
The narrative has long been that we will only see the very best of Saunders when he is in with the very best, and, clearly in fantastic shape, the prospect of that being true makes this a fascinating contest. However, it has been three and a half years since we have seen him shine and even the most patriotic Englishman must have slight doubts about whether he is still able to turn it on when needed. There is no room for patriotism when it comes to punting and I have to side with the Mexican.
For all the talk of the Lara fight as a key pointer being relevant, Canelo has improved markedly since then, especially in the footwork department. He's isn't as flat-footed these days and has become an expert at cutting off the ring, so evading him for 12 round is a different test now. The Saunders cheerleaders also hang their hat on his 'matador and bull' performance against Lemieux, but the Canadian is nowhere near as smart a fighter as the one in front of the Englishman here.
All the momentum is with Canelo as well. Far from shop-worn after 15 years as a professional and 58 bouts, he looks better than ever and this will be his third fight in less than six months, having dominated Britain's Callum Smith in December before dispatching the overmatched Avni Yildrim in three sessions in February. Saunders did shake off some rust against an over-the-hill Martin Murray in December, but hasn't faced anyone world class in recent years, or yet proved himself as effective at super middleweight, and that isn't the best preparation for a test of this magnitude.
It's not that I don't believe Saunders is not capable of having plenty of success, because I certainly do, but it's just hard to envisage a way he gets the job done, even if he's at his very best. He isn't noted as a big puncher and the sturdy Canelo has always displayed a granite chin, with even Golovkin's best shots barely even getting a reaction, so it is nearly impossible to see the away fighter scoring a knockout. And it if goes the distance, Canelo has a history of being looked upon very favourably by the judges, perhaps a luxury of being the biggest draw in the sport, and him losing a decision in a remotely close fight seems almost as unlikely as him being knocked out at the moment.
That means all roads lead to another victory for Canelo, and most probably by decision (13/8). He is likely to close the gap as the fight develops and as his opponent tires, so Saunders may have to soak up some punishment late on which would bring the late stoppage into play, with Canelo in rounds 9-12 available at 7/2. However, Saunders has a big heart and enough defensive know-how in order to see the final bell, after which we are likely to be waxing lyrical once again about how good the Mexican superstar is.
Three or four years ago and at middleweight, I would have given Saunders a serious chance of outboxing and dancing his way to an upset victory. However, he faces a much better version of Canelo now, is arguably not as well suited to this higher weight class and just hasn't been active enough for me to believe he will pull this one off.
Canelo v Saunders: Big fight running order
- Kelvin Davis v Jan Marsalek - 4 x 3 mins Super-Lightweight contest
- Christian Alan Gomez Duran v Xavier Wilson 8 x 3 mins Welterweight contest
- Keyshawn Davis v Jose Antonio Meza 6 x 3 mins Lightweight contest
- Marc Castro v Irving Macias Castillo 6 x 3 mins Super-Featherweight contest
- Frank Sanchez v. Nagy Aguilera 10 x 3 mins Heavyweight contest
- Kieron Conway v Souleymane Cissokho 10 x 3 mins WBA Intercontinental Super-Welterweight title
- Elwin Soto v Katsunari Takayama 12 x 3 mins WBO World Light-Flyweight title
- Canelo Alvarez v Billy Joe Saunders 12 x 3 mins WBC, WBA Super, WBO and Ring Magazine World Super-Middleweight unification
Posted at 1300 BST on 07/05/21
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