Boxing betting tips: Manny Pacquiao v Yordenis Ugas fight on Saturday August 21
Chris Oliver was bang on the money last week and returns to assess Manny Pacquiao's prospects of seeing off another tricky opponent.
Boxing betting tips: Manny Pacquiao v Yordenis Ugas
2pts Manny Pacquiao to win by decision 6/5 (General)
Manny Pacquiao v Yordenis Ugas
When: Sunday August 22 (UK), approx. 0430 BST
Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
Watch: Sky Sports from 0200 BST
Another chapter in the remarkable story of MANNY PACQUIAO gets written this weekend when he takes Yordenis Ugas in Las Vegas, live on Sky Sports.
Nobody expected the Filipino legend to still be headlining big shows in 2021 when he was outpointed by Floyd Mayweather in their long-awaited showdown in 2015, but six years later he continues to surprise us all and returns after two years out for another dance under the bright lights of Sin City.
Now 42 years old, the fact he was originally due to fight unbeaten pound-for-pounder Errol Spence on Saturday night says it all about Pacquiao and his desire to enhance his legacy even further. After we were robbed of that fascinating match when the WBC and IBF champion pulled out with a serious eye injury last week, the veteran once again led by example by choosing awkward WBA champion Ugas as the replacement.
That desire to always take on the biggest challenge is unfortunately the exception and not the rule in boxing at the moment, but that is not the only way in which that Pacquiao is bucking the trend. Whereas most future Hall of Famers still going into their forties are a shadow of their former selves and being beaten by foes who wouldn't have lived with them in their pomp, 'Pac Man' has continued to gobble up leading welterweights for fun.
Although not quite the force of old, Pacquiao has still had enough left to show the youngsters how it is done in a fantastic run since the Mayweather defeat. Returning to win his rubber match with Tim Bradley in 2016, he then recorded another unanimous decision victory over Jesse Vargas before a shock defeat to Jeff Horn when travelling to Australia in 2017.
He got back on track by stopping Argentinian banger Lucas Matthysse before humbling and dominating Cincinnati loudmouth Adrien Broner, but it was his last victory against Keith Thurman that really impressed. Thurman was unbeaten, with wins over the likes of fellow champions Shawn Porter and Danny Garcia, but Pacquiao dropped and outworked the younger man to claim a deserved decision in their July 2019 bout.
While he was very much the underdog against Spence, he is a warm 2/7 favourite to beat Ugas but this is no straightforward assignment for the veteran.
Don't read too much into Ugas' record of 26-4 as a professional, as he won Olympic bronze and World Championships gold in a stellar amateur career and has really hit form in the paid ranks in recent years. The Cuban had over two years out after his third defeat in 2014 and has been a different fighter since his return, an improvement which has coincided with him teaming up with legendary trainer Ismael Salas.
Ugas has lost only one of his 12 bouts since that layoff and that was a razor-thin split decision when challenging the aforementioned Porter for the WBC strap in March 2019, with many observers believing he deserved to get the nod. Three good wins have followed, firstly taking Omar Figueroa's unbeaten record before stopping Mike Dallas and then picking up this belt with a points win over Abel Ramos in September. He arrives in top form and full of confidence.
Big for the weight, Ugas is an adept counter-puncher who is capable of making this a very tricky night for his better-known opponent. He doubles up well with the jab and carries a solid weapon in his overhand right, but his most effective work arguably comes downstairs via a tremendous left-hook counter to the body.
He may have come in at short notice but he was due to fight on the undercard this weekend so should fully prepared and a good case can be made for him being value at 3/1 against the 2021 version of Pacquiao, one whose famous work rate isn't quite what is once was. A victory for Ugas would not come as a surprise, but Pacquiao appears to have enough in his favour to claim career win number 63 and once it again it may pay not to underestimate him.
Much has been made about the favourite's age, but Ugas is no spring chicken at 35 and isn't known for setting a high pace. With that in mind, Pacquiao looks to still have the engine to prove busy enough to catch the eye of the judges, and he still has rapid speed of hand and foot. Given that Ugas struggled with Porter's quick mitts on the occasions the latter let his hands go, the difference in speed could be very noticeable here. Also, even in this late stage of his career, Pacquiao is the best fighter Ugas has been in with and it represents a step up in class.
Perhaps the biggest factor in finding it hard to go against Pacquiao is how the judges are likely to see this one. His high-octane style has always been very judge-friendly and he is the big draw here, while Ugas often adopts a more patient approach and can spend long periods boxing on the back foot. If things are remotely close after 12 rounds, it's hard to see the scorecards not favouring Pacquiao in a town that has been his fighting home over the last 15 years.
All the form clues points towards this going the distance as well, with the aforementioned Matthysse win being Pacquiao's only stoppage in his last 16 bouts, stretching over 12 years, while Ugas has never been stopped and doesn't appear to have the power to halt a man who has taken the best shots from much bigger hitters than him.
Sky Bet are a standout 8/13 about it going the distance and that looks rock-solid for those who like to play at such odds, whereas the top price of 7/4 for Pacquiao to win before the final bell looks far too short on recent evidence. The most likely outcome seems to be the man from the Philippines claiming a DECISION VICTORY and that rates the safest bet at 6/5, although the 9/4 with Ladbrokes about Pacquiao getting a unanimous decision is tempting.
The possibility that Pacquiao has one fight too many and gets old in the ring is a very real one nowadays, but on all known evidence, the legendary veteran looks to have enough left to have his hand raised after what could be a tricky 12 rounds.
CLICK HERE to back Pacquiao to win on points with Sky Bet
Posted at 1045 BST on 20/08/21
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