Boxing betting tips: Leigh Wood v Josh Warrington live on DAZN
Chris Oliver previews Saturday's Sheffield showdown between Leigh Wood and Josh Warrington, with the former tipped to produce another big finish.
Boxing betting tips: Saturday October 7
2pts Leigh Wood by stoppage at 3/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt Hopey Price to win rounds 7-12 at 11/5 (William Hill)
No trash talking or fake press conference theatrics have been needed to sell LEIGH WOOD's WBA title defence against Josh Warrington on Saturday night, live on DAZN.
Both renowned for being in exciting fights and never taking the easy route, it's easy to see why they are backed by two of the best fanbases in British boxing and the atmosphere will be electric when they meet in the neutral territory of the Sheffield Arena. Those fans should certainly get their money's worth as it's hard to see anything other than an exciting clash between these all-action featherweights.
Their career trajectories have been very different, and this fight wouldn’t have been on anyone’s radar as recently as early 2020, when Wood had suffered a second career defeat (to domestic rival 'Jazza' Dickens) and Warrington was still an unbeaten world champion eyeing lucrative unification bouts. The latter would have been long odds-on had the pair met then, but he can be backed at 2/1 this weekend and it is Wood who is favourite at 4/9.
Their respective fortunes changed in 2021, starting with Warrington when he returned from a layoff for what everybody thought was a routine tune-up fight against Mauricio Lara, but the latter didn't read the script and the Mexican dished out a brutal, one-sided beating until the action was halted in the ninth round. A clash of heads meant their rematch was called off by the doctor after two rounds and told us little of how Warrington had recovered from his first defeat.
Warrington regained his old IBF title with a seventh-round stoppage Spanish veteran Kiki Martinez, but it came at the cost of a broken jaw and, following another lengthy spell on the sidelines, he lost the belt to a Mexican again, this time in the shape of Luis Alberto Lopez. It was a close fight and Warrington rallied late on, but the Leeds man couldn't claw back the deficit on the scorecards after taking too long to get going.
Conversely, Wood enjoyed a stellar 2021 when, after defeating Warrington gym mate Reece Mould, he got an unexpected shot at WBA champion Can Xu and pulled off a big upset. The Nottingham fighter boxed beautifully to tame the usually relentless champion and stopped the Chinese visitor with 17 seconds remaining in the fight.
There was no 'gimme' first defence for Wood, who gave the highly regarded Michael Conlan a shot and once again produced a last-round stoppage to win the domestic fight of the year for 2022. Next up was the aforementioned Lara and after boxing the ears off the Mexican, Wood walked on to a huge left hook at the end of the seventh and the fight was over in the blink of an eye. Against the advice of his team, Wood went straight back in with his heavy-handed conqueror six months ago and produced a disciplined masterclass to run out an easy winner on the scorecards.
Now, Wood (27-3) gives the fans what they want and gets the chance to prove he is the best UK featherweight of this recent era, while Warrington (31-2-1) has the chance to become a three-time world champion and will be supremely motivated by that opportunity.
The obvious comparison is how they both fared against Lara and, while boxing isn't as simple as that, there is no doubt Wood comes out best in that department. Both were stopped by the big-punching Mexican, but Wood won pretty much every one of the 19 rounds they shared, barring the one he was knocked out in, whereas Warrington was second best for most, if not all, of the 11 sessions he had with Lara.
As always, we know what we're going to get from Warrington. The challenger fights with an aggression and intensity that has been as popular with the fans as it has been tricky for his opponents to deal with, so expect him to be starting fast and looking to press the action from the first bell. However, his relentless work-rate has always been his biggest asset and there have been signs that his famed output has dropped recently. His fan-friendly style also means he has had very few easy nights at the office during a 34-fight career and the wear and tear appears to be showing now.
So, despite being the older of the two by three years, it is the 35-year-old Wood who looks the fresher of the two and appears better than ever in his Indian summer. He has looked a different fighter since teaming up with trainer Ben Davison and has shown his versatility in his three world title fight wins, for which he was an underdog each time. He tamed the high work-rate of Xu, overcame the excellent counterpunching skills of Conlan and disarmed the dangerous Lara.
Wood seemingly has more ways to win here than Warrington, who will need to rediscover top gear in that famous engine of his and utilise all his roughhouse tactics to unsettle the champion. It is 8/15 that this goes the distance, with 15/4 available for a Warrington decision and 5/4 about the same outcome in Wood’s favour.
The latter is clearly a big player, especially if Wood looks to keep it long and adopt similar tactics to when he fought Lara, but this could be the right time to get Warrington and I think there is plenty of mileage in the champion WINNING BY STOPPAGE at 3/1.
Warrington has only won one of his last four outings and, having thrived on activity in his pomp, he has now only fought twice in the last two years. He has also been neglecting his jab in recent fights and rushing in with seemingly little method to his madness, a repeat of which could result in him walking on to something meaningful from the straight-punching Wood.
With seven of his last eight wins coming inside the distance, Wood carries power and the Nottingham man will surely find a home for his heavy shots at some point against an opponent who has become increasingly easy to hit. There is also the chance that, with the rival supporters at fever pitch by the time the main event comes around, this could catch fire much earlier than either man planned and that would lessen the chances of this going the full 12 rounds.
It should be a fight to savour and a great battle between two grand servants of British boxing, but this sport is all about timing and that could be bad news for Warrington.
Price is right
The sold-out crowd in South Yorkshire are treated to a good undercard, with local favourite Terri Harper defending her WBA world light middleweight title against Cecilia Braekhus in a clash of eras.
The latter (37-2) reigned as welterweight champion for 11 years before back-to-back defeats to Jessica McCaskill and the 42-year-old may find herself outworked and outpointed by the younger, fresher champion here.
There is no juice in the 4/11 about a Harper decision, though, while Kieron Conway versus Linus Udofia is an excellent match up but finding an angle in from a punting point of view is tricky in what looks a genuine 50-50 contest.
However, in the local derby between Leeds prospect HOPEY PRICE (11-0) and Hull’s Connor Coghill (14-0), the former is fully expected to show why he been so highly touted with a convincing victory.
This is a step up for both men in their first 12-rounder, but the jump looks much bigger for Coghill and Price is fancied to justify his odds of 1/10 in style.
With just four stoppages between them, neither man is noted for their power but there were signs that Price was beginning to find his ‘man strength’ when beating James Beech Jnr into submission over seven rounds in July and the 5/6 about him gaining a second consecutive inside-the-distance victory looks solid.
That can be boosted to 11/5 if opting for it to come in the second half of the contest and PRICE IN ROUNDS 7-12 appears to be where the value lies.
Posted at 1200 BST on 06/10/23
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