Boxing betting tips: Chris Billam-Smith fancied to defy underdog tag vs Gilberto Ramirez
Chris Oliver is heading towards a hugely profitable year with his big-fight previews. Here's his take on Saturday's action.
Boxing betting tips: Saturday November 16
1pt Chris Billam-Smith to win by decision at 7/2 (bet365, BetVictor)
2pts William Zapeda to win in rounds 1-5 at 9/4 (Sky Bet)
The unlikely rise of CHRIS BILLAM-SMITH reaches new heights as he headlines the latest Riyadh Season blockbuster in his cruiserweight unification bout against Gilberto Ramirez on Saturday night.
Few gave Billam-Smith any hope of reaching world level when he turned professional on the small-hall circuit seven years ago, but he arrives in Saudi Arabia having won and twice defended the WBO title and he now bids to add the WBA strap to his collection.
He has a serious task on his hands against Ramirez, who is the 4/9 favourite to successfully defend the belt he won against the previously unbeaten Arsen Goulamirian in March, but this appears to have been priced up on reputation, rather than what the pair have achieved at cruiserweight.
As good as a win that unanimous decision was for Ramirez, Goulamirian was 36 and had only boxed once in four years going into their contest. Also, that was the first fight at cruiserweight for Ramirez, having beaten Joe Smith Jr at a catchweight of 193lb in his only other contest since a wide points loss to Dimitry Bivol at light heavyweight (175lb).
That remains Ramirez’s sole defeat in 47 fights, but his seemingly impressive record is a very padded one and even his five defences of the WBO super middleweight title came against relatively moderate opposition. The fact that Ramirez didn’t leave the 168lb division until 2019 will give plenty of confidence to Billam-Smith, a career cruiserweight who is as physically strong as they come at 200lb.
Billam-Smith (20-1) has arguably the best form here with his title-winning points victory over Lawrence Okolie in May last year. Okolie hadn’t come close to losing before that and entered as a big favourite, but Billam-Smith dropped his former gym mate three times on his way to causing a sizeable upset.
It wasn’t pretty that night, but he nullified Okolie’s power and wore down the champion, just as was the case in Billam-Smith’s latest outing against another big-punching domestic rival in Richard Riakporhe five months ago. Once again, ‘The Gentleman’ outworked his more fancied rival and ground it out, avenging his only career defeat (by split decision in 2019) in the process.
Now used to making a mockery of the odds, Billam-Smith won’t bat an eyelid at being an 11/5 underdog here, but he may be that kind of price due to his performance against Mateusz Masternak in his first defence. The Pole seemingly couldn’t miss with his right hand on that occasion and was in front on two of the three scorecards when he retired on his stool at the end of the seventh round due to a rib injury. The tide was turning, though, and the fact that Billam-Smith was coming on strong may have had something to do with it.
So, on paper, Billam-Smith looks overpriced, but we know styles make fights and Ramirez has the potential to be a tricky one for the underdog, who has enjoyed his best wins by making big cruiserweights work harder than they would like for long periods. Ramirez presents a different proposition because, as the naturally smaller man, he moves very well for the weight and possesses a good engine.
The Mexican is also a southpaw and Billam-Smith has only faced one left-hander as a professional so far, which has to be a concern. That said, with the excellent Shane McGuigan in his corner, there is no doubt he will be very well prepared for the task.
If those are the positives for Ramirez, the weight could be a serious negative for him. The 33-year-old is used to enjoying height and reach advantages over his opponents, but that isn’t the case here against the slightly taller Billam-Smith and the latter is expected be much the stronger man as a fully-fledged cruiserweight.
It’s likely that the favourite will look to utilise his quicker feet and pepper his man before moving out of range, just as he did against Goulamirian. However, unlike Goulamirian, Billam-Smith won’t be found wanting for stamina and he will be pressing the action from the first bell to the last.
Both men have a good chin, and I see this going to the scorecards, a theory backed up by the 8/13 available for it to go the distance. In my opinion, this could go either way, but I think it will be close no matter who prevails and that makes the 7/2 about BILLAM-SMITH WINNING BY DECISION much more appealing than the 6/4 about his opponent prevailing on the scorecards.
On what is billed as ‘Latino Night’, expect plenty of fireworks on a good undercard and the California derby between Jose Carlos Ramirez (29-1) and Arnold Barboza Jr (30-0) could steal the show.
Ramirez’s only loss came in his undisputed contest with Scotland’s Josh Taylor in 2022 and he should be set for another super lightweight title shot if he can get past the unbeaten Barboza, but that is far from certain.
One outcome that seems much more predictable is WILLIAM ZAPEDA versus Tevin Farmer, with the former strongly fancied to continue his winning streak en route to a long overdue shot at a lightweight belt.
Zapeda is red-hot right now and it’s no surprise to see him priced up at a best of 1/16, with Farmer (10/1) suffering the sixth loss of his career against Raymond Muratalla in July.
Following his breakthrough success over former champion ‘Jo Jo’ Diaz via a lopsided decision a couple of years ago, Zapeda has rattled off five straight stoppage wins and another beckons here.
Zapeda is an aggressive, pressure-punching southpaw who is huge for the weight, and he has the power to match his high-volume approach. While Farmer has plenty of skills, he is past his best and I don’t think he has the pop on shots to keep the offensive whirlwind that is Zapeda off for too long.
I rate Zapeda highly and I fancy him to overwhelm his man to claim another stoppage before the halfway mark of this 10-rounder at 9/4.
Posted at 1530 GMT on 15/11/24
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