Boxing betting tips: Canelo Alvarez v Caleb Plant plus BT Sport card in UK and BOXXER
Boxing expert Chris Oliver looks ahead to a massive Saturday which includes live action in the UK, plus Canelo v Plant in the US.
Boxing betting tips: Saturday November 6
2pts Canelo to win in rounds 7-12 at 7/4 (William Hill)
1pt Zach Parker to win by decision at 9/4 (Sky Bet)
1pt Cori Gibbs to win BOXXER at 4/1 (bet365)
There is action from both sides of the Atlantic on BT Sport this weekend, with all eyes on Las Vegas as Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez takes on Caleb Plant in the early hours of Sunday morning.
The current pound-for-pound king bids to add another chapter to his incredible career by taking Plant's IBF belt to become the first ever undisputed champion in the super middleweight division. The supremely talented Mexican is a must-see attraction right now and is well worth the late night (or very early morning) for fans on these shores.
There is added needle to this unification showdown as the pair exchanged heated words at the press conference to announce the fight before coming to blows on the stage. As Plant threw a left hand, Canelo slipped the shot before quickly countering to draw blood from the cheek of his opponent, and that could be a sign of things to come on fight night. The 1/10 favourite is an expert at making his opponent miss and pay, so Plant, who is as big as 7/1, can expect plenty more where that came from.
Writers have run out of superlatives when talking about Canelo and what he has achieved in his 16-year career en route to compiling a record of 56-1-2. He has been the biggest star in the sport since the retirement of Floyd Mayweather, who handed him his sole defeat in 2013, and his recent run of form has certainly justified his lofty status in the sport. Following his hotly-disputed draw and narrow points win in a pair of modern-day middleweight classics with Gennady Golovkin, Alvarez has rattled off six impressive victories, including stepping up to light heavyweight to brutally stop the big-punching Sergey Kovalev.
Canelo then set his sights on cleaning up at 168lb after his pandemic-enforced break and will have done so in just 11 months if successful here. Despite a long career after turning professional at 16, the 31-year-old still seems to be improving and it is very hard to see a way he can be beaten in this division at the moment. British fans suggested the WBC champion Callum Smith would be too big for him, but Canelo bullied his much taller opponent around the ring on his way to a clear points decision. Then, we threw slick and tricky southpaw Billy Joe Saunders in Canelo's direction in the hope his smart footwork and silky skills could replicate what Mayweather did, but the Mexican dispatched the Englishman in eight rounds thanks to a crunching uppercut that broke the visitor's eye socket to take his WBO strap.
Is Plant ready for rise in class?
Now it is Plant's turn to attempt to solve this extremely tricky puzzle, and he is not lacking in confidence. Having gone through plenty of painful ordeals in his personal life, including losing his daughter at just 19 months old, he won't lack for mental fortitude and doesn't appear to be giving Canelo too much respect, as many have done in the past.
He is buoyed by a perfect 21-fight record (12 early) and captured the title when upsetting, and twice dropping, Jose Uzcategui by picking up a unanimous decision victory in 2019. Three successful defences have followed, firstly battering an overmatched Mike Lee in three sessions then breaking down Vincent Feigenbutz for a 10-round stoppage, before an easy shutout points victory over former champion Caleb Truax in January this year.
The 29-year-old Plant is a smart mover with fast hands and likes to get his rapid combinations off before moving back out of range. Capable of boxing on the front or back foot, he is busy and boasts a good engine to keep it up over the championship distance. However, as good as he has looked in getting to this point, it has been against limited opposition compared to what he faces now, and this represents a huge step up in class. Whereas Canelo has bucked the current trend by taking on the best around time and time again over the last decade, Plant has yet to face a truly world-class opponent, let alone beat one, and that lack of experience at this level is a major concern for his supporters.
Plant has a nice, fast jab and he is likely to try to make full use of it from the get-go, bearing in mind Saunders did have some success when jabbing and moving in May, albeit from the southpaw stance. The underdog is expected to start fast and look to get a foothold in the fight behind that lead left hand, aiming to push the favourite back. However, just as Saunders was gaining confidence and picking up a round two on the cards, Canelo found that brilliant uppercut to effectively end the fight and I can see a similar scenario playing out here.
What's the best bet?
The patient Canelo is a master at downloading the information in front of him and then executing whatever gameplan is required, having developed into such a well-rounded fighter who is now capable of winning in many ways. Conversely, it is hard to see a way Plant can win, without the required power to really trouble his granite-chinned opponent – and winning a points decision against the sport's biggest cash cow in Vegas appearing just as tough as Canelo's chin.
The favourite has a devastating offence when letting go his thudding hooks, straight rights and uppercuts in rapid combinations to head and body but is also a superb counter puncher with lightning reflexes and tremendous upper body movement, allowing him to turn defence into attack in a flash. His ring generalship is second to none and the physical, and mental, pressure he applies can force Plant into a mistake at some point in the second half of the fight.
It would be no great surprise to see the American pick up a few early rounds with his jab-and-move tactics, but once Canelo starts to work him out and close the gap, another stoppage victory for the Mexican (4/7) should be just around the corner. Plant is made of stern stuff and won't give up his unbeaten record without a fight, but Canelo can begin to break him down from the middle rounds and end it somewhere between ROUNDS 7-12 at 7/4.
Parker to pick up points win
Earlier in the night, ZACH PARKER looks to solidify his claims of a shot at the WBO strap when he tops the bill in Birmingham against Marcus Morrison.
Ranked number one with the WBO, he is more likely to fight for the vacant belt rather than face the winner of Canelo and Plant, but the carrot being dangled is a big one nonetheless and he is expected to take his record to 22-0.
He is 1/14 to do so against Morrison (17/2), whose career has failed to hit the heights expected and things haven't gone to plan since an upset first defeat to Jason Welborn in March 2017. Another three losses have followed, including when dropping a decision to Chris Eubank Jr last December, but he did knock out Italian Emanuele Blandamura in his own back yard in 2019 and can clearly still bang a bit.
Big for the weight, the tall and rangy Parker is on a run of four straight stoppages and will be full of confidence. His 11th round win over rugged Australian Rogan Murdock in early 2020 was a career best, although little can be taken from his quick nights against veterans Vaughn Alexander (TKO 2) and Sherzod Khusanov (KO 1), who were 35 and 41 respectively and had seen better days.
As a switch hitter who carries power, he's going to be tough to beat at this sort of level and I don't envisage Morrison pulling off the upset here, but the big question is whether Parker can become the first person to halt the Manchester man.
Given that Morrison has spent most of his career down at middleweight and bearing in mind the knockout run the local fighter is on, it is no surprise to see a Parker stoppage at a best price of just 2/5. However, it could pay to take a chance on Morrison, who has proven very durable and is certainly more of a test than Parker's last two opponents, seeing the final bell, especially with this advertised as a 10-rounder. PARKER BY DECISION may be a touch too big at 9/4.
So you want to be a Boxxer...
There is also live action on Sky Sports in the shape of the latest instalment of the BOXXER series, this time featuring the super lightweights. In the same format as the old Prizefighter events, these eight-man tournaments consist of three-round bouts and it is all decided in one night. They are usually plenty of fun and this should be no exception.
Sean 'Masher' Dodd has by far the best CV as a pro of the contenders, but is now 36 and this short format may not be ideal for him, unlike for CORI GIBBS.
Having picked up several national titles as an amateur, he was part of the Great Britain Development squad and is the only unbeaten fighter in the competition with a 13-0 record as a professional. It's two years since he last boxed, but he is sure to be well prepared for this potentially career-changing opportunity (worth £40,000 to the winner) and will relish the fast and furious nature more than most. He makes plenty of appeal at 4/1.
Posted at 0940 GMT on 05/11/21
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